JL's Observation Deck - Week 5 fantasysharks.com Thu 10/3/13 7:15 AM2 Comments

Around The League A surprisingly entertaining game broke out across the pond in London between two teams that hadn't won a game in the young season. I gathered two main conclusions from watching that game. First being the play of Pittsburgh rookie running back Le'Veon Bell. Bell showed the quick feet and patience that made him successful at the college level. What he showed me in this game, that impressed me more than I expected, was his short area quickness to go along with those quick feet. In college, too often it took him too long to get going when he took the handoff; in this game Sunday, it was evident the weight he has shed definitely benefited him and his explosiveness. He played like a runner with something to prove, and despite the awful performance of the Steelers' running game in the first three weeks of the season, this rookie has brought hope to fantasy circles desperately looking for a solid RB2 - which has become a rarity in this day in age. Secondly, it was also apparent that Matt Cassel helped the overall rhythm of the Minnesota passing game. This is a guy who can come in and make stick throws. Think about it, what does he have to lose? He is the clear backup now (so the coaches say) and the pressure is off him. His throw to Greg Jennings on their second touchdown of the day is the exact kind of throw I don't see Christian Ponder make or even attempt to make. With that said, don't get overly excited about the prospects of Greg Jennings moving forward, as he didn't even play 40 snaps in the game and ran less than 25 pass routes. Back in the states, there were a number of intriguing games, but none more heart-breaking for their own fan base than the Seattle-Houston contest. While you will likely hear a lot of the blame fall on Matt Schaub for this loss because of his late fourth quarterback mistake that ultimately cost the Texans the game. What you won't hear about is what happened before that play. On the Texans' previous drive prior to the game-tying Richard Sherman interception return, the Texans got the football up seven points and proceeded to throw on three straight plays. All resulting in incompletions, which caused Houston to go three-and-out and punt the ball back to Seattle. When coach Gary Kubiak's team got the ball back once more, he called four straight Arian Foster runs that resulted in one first down, 18 yards and a lot of time off the clock. What did he call next? The play action pass in which Schaub failed...

Good Call/Bad Call - Week 4 fantasysharks.com Fri 9/27/13 8:15 AM13 Comments

Quarterbacks I was surprised that Terrelle Pryor was able to put up 20 fantasy points last week playing Denver. Even more surprising is that he's ranked as the 13th best fantasy quarterback. That means he should be owned in all fantasy leagues as a solid QB2. This week, if you have the chance, go ahead and start him. His home game against the second worst ranked Washington Redskins makes for a good matchup. Opposing Redskins quarterbacks are averaging 29 points so far this season. Michael Vick who plays a similar style to Pryor had nine runs for 54 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, and I think Pryor should be able to have some similar rushing stats to go along with his passing stats.[Editor's note: As of Thursday, Matt Flynn had been practicing with the first team and it appears that Pryor will not play in Week 4. Check back Sunday morning for official word on Pryor's status.] Temper you expectation for Matt Ryan this weekend. His matchup at New England is going to be a tough one. New England has been able to hold opposing quarterbacks to an average of 200 passing yards and less than a touchdown a game. Granted those quarterbacks were E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith, and Josh Freeman , but it's still something to hold back quarterbacks who are playing from behind. You've still got to start him. One guy you're definitely not going to want to start is Matt Schaub . His matchup with Seattle is not going to be a pretty one. Seattle is the toughest team for quarterbacks to go against. Only one quarterback has thrown a touchdown against the Seahawks this year. They were able to keep Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick to under 130 passing yards. Don't expect Schaub to go for three passing touchdowns like he did in Week 1 and 2. If you've got Schuab keep him on your bench this week, he's a bad call. Running Backs Giovani Bernard has been increasing his fantasy points every week this season; from three, to 19, to 21. This is reflective of his expanded role in the Bengals offense, and he's currently the 16th ranked fantasy running back. His matchup this week is a favorable one, and you're going to want to make sure he's in your starting lineup. The Browns have allowed five rushing touchdowns this year, and Bernard actually got two red zone carries last week. It was assumed at the beginning of the season that BenJarvus Green-Ellis would be getting all the red zone carries. With Bernard cutting into Green-Ellis' carries it seems like the Bengals coaching staff is ...

Rock and a Hard Place - Week 3 fantasysharks.com Fri 9/20/13 8:00 AM3 Comments

In my opinion, studs have been underperforming. I'm not saying there aren't a few that have lived up to expectations: Peyton Manning, Adrian Peterson and Aaron Rodgers have been as advertised. But guys like Trent Richardson, Ray Rice, David Wilson and Stevan Ridley have disappointed, to say the least. I am fortunate to own three of those four guys on one team. In case you are wondering, that team is 0-2. In that league, I am between a rock and a hard place. Or maybe I'm just dead. I don't really know. As far as Richardson goes, I'll give you my spin on the trade: I think going to a better offense ultimately helps him. This week will be tough sledding against a San Francisco defense that will play like a pack of honey badgers. But Indianapolis didn't trade for Richardson to sit him. I think he gets some carries as they try to involve him early. This also helps Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton and even Coby Fleener. The only guy it really hurts is Ahmad Bradshaw, who will soon be relegated to occasional third down work. As far as Cleveland, it shouldn't have much of an impact on Josh Gordon or Jordan Cameron because the Browns weren't using the run game anyway. They're going to continue to chuck it. With guys underperforming and a few key injuries already taking their toll, what do you do if your team is already being held together by bubble gum and duct tape? What do you do if you're already stretching to rationalize which backup gets a spot start this week? Below, I'll list a player with some upside for this week, their Week 3 matchup, and the percentage of leagues in which he is owned according to our friends at fleaflicker.com . DISCLAIMER: The hope is that you don't find yourself in a situation like this. The hope is that you dodge that bullet. But hope won't help you come Sunday. Let's move on to this week's targets, keeping in mind that these aren't every week starters. Instead, these are guys that should only be used if you're in some kind of roster emergency. QB Jake Locker vs. San Diego -- 39 percent. Locker struggled in Pittsburgh in Week 1. He was better in Houston last week. But this week, he gets a San Diego secondary that has been victimized by both Matt Schaub and Michael Vick in recent weeks. The Titans will set the tone with Chris Johnson, but Locker will still need to make plays. I like Locker to hit our projection: 215 yards passing and a pair of scores. Terrelle Pryor at Denver -- 27 percent. This is Pryor's third ...

Good Call/Bad Call - Week 3 fantasysharks.com Fri 9/20/13 6:30 AM

I always like Week 3 of the season. After this week, we're finally able to see the trends of players and teams. We can see if there was a fluke game by some player or if teams really are using that player in their game plan. We get to see which defenses are weak against the pass or the run. Sleepers aren't sleepers anymore, and players that you drafted with upside are either panning out or wasting roster space on your bench. After this Sunday we can finally see where our fantasy teams stand and get into the next fun part of fantasy football, trading. Now on to the calls for the week. Quarterbacks The Green Bay at Cincinnati game is chock-full of fantasy potential this week. The Packers have allowed 412 and 320 passing yards in the first two weeks, along with three touchdowns in each week to opposing quarterbacks. I'm thinking Andy Dalton is going to have a big game this week. Dalton looks to have plenty of receiving options at his disposal this season. Drafting Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard to go with A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham looks to have been a good move by the Bengals, and it would be a good move to have Dalton in your lineup this week. The Baltimore Ravens defense doesn't look as stout as it has in past seasons. Currently, they rank as the third easiest defense for quarterbacks to go against. Even Brandon Weeden had 233 passing yards versus them last week. Combine that with the fact that Matt Schaub has been playing some good football through the first two weeks of the season and I'd say Schaub is a good call for you to start this week. Schaub has thrown three touchdowns in each of his first two games, and I don't see why he couldn't do it again. Jay Cutler is a bad call this week. His trip to Pittsburgh is going to be a rough one. The Steelers have allowed just one passing touchdown this season, and allow an average of just 203 passing yards. Cutler has five touchdowns on the year already, but hasn't passed for more than 300 yards, yet. I don't see that happening this week, and I think he'd be lucky to throw for more than one touchdown. Cutler is a bad call this week and you should look elsewhere for your starting quarterback. Running Backs Darren McFadden hasn't done much on the ground this year, but he has been involved in the passing game. Catching passes is what's going to help McFadden's value this week. Oakland travels to Denver and should be playing catchup all game. Ray Rice had eight catches in Week 1 against Denver and I...

Week 3: Climate Control fantasysharks.com Thu 9/19/13 5:30 AM

One of the more unexpected trends in this early season has nothing to do with team or player performance, but rather Mother Nature. To begin the 2013 season, the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos endured a 34-minute delay. Obviously, the holdup certainly did not impinge on Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos' stellar debut. In Week 2, the contests between the New Orleans Saints versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers versus Seattle Seahawks both suffered delays. Although weather delays are not uncommon in the NFL, September is relatively early in the season to encounter three delays. With one delay in Week 1, two in Week 2, would it be superstitious to predict three for this weekend? There are thunderstorms forecast in Tennessee, Miami, and New Jersey. Beware! Enough about the weather! Let's take a dive into the third week of the NFL season! Quarterback Turn back the clock a few years and you'd find Philip Rivers deemed as a top five, and unquestionably, top ten quarterback. Unfortunately, his lack of consistency including a rise in interceptions (especially in clutch situations) has hurt his fantasy value in the last two seasons. In fact, Rivers may even be available on the waiver wire in certain leagues. Whether his hot start is merely a fluke or a legitimate rebound, he deserves consideration for Week 3. Rivers may be a better play than other quarterbacks ranked ahead of him as he battles the Tennessee Titans, which were just ripped for 298 passing yards and three touchdowns by Matt Schaub . If you are beginning to second-guess starting Robert Griffin III , Colin Kaepernick , or even Tom Brady , at least think about Philip Rivers this week. Week 3 Forecast: 325 passing yards and two touchdowns Running Back It is difficult to suggest starting any New York Jets player not named...wait a minute.... there truly is no New York Jets player generally worth starting this season! In deeper or flex leagues, Bilal Powell deserves a look. He has received 25 carries this season including the goal line carries, while Chris Ivory has rushed 22 times. Powell also has contributed in the passing game with six receptions. The Jets battle division rival Buffalo this weekend, who have allowed the third most rushing yards to opposing backs this season and were among the worst rush defenses in 2012. If your starting back is injured for Week 3 or you need to fill a Flex position, consider Powell! Week 3 Forecast: 75 total yards and one...

The Lowdown - Week 2 fantasysharks.com Thu 9/12/13 1:00 PM1 Comment

Welcome to The Lowdown for Week 2. This is my little corner of the fantasy football universe--feel free to pull up a chair and stay a while! Delusional in Detroit Ndamukong Suh once again was involved in a dirty play, when he nailed Vikings' OL John Sullivan during an interception return with an illegal low block. The league handed down a $100,000 fine to Suh, who was then quoted as saying: "Really, you just play football, that's all I can do," Suh told reporters. "... I don't change, I'm going to always play tough, hard, that's the way I was brought up at Nebraska, where I really learned football from the Pelinis and that staff and continue to play hard, play blue-collar football." Early in Suh's career, I resisted calling him a dirty player because I felt he was just playing a tough, aggressive brand of football; however, I have now changed my opinion. After repeated infractions, combined with Suh's inability to understand why he's being fined and inability to change his style of play, I now regard Suh as a dirty player--as well as a huge jerk. While just about everyone is quick to point out that Suh is a nice guy off the field, that is of little comfort to all his on-field victims. Frankly, Suh should be progressively suspended with each future infraction. For Safety's Sake This past weekend saw a ridiculous number of safeties in the NFL; four, to be exact. The Chiefs, Bucs, Titans and Redskins all gave up deuces--in the Chiefs' case, it was the only points they gave up the entire game. I'm not some degenerate Vegas gambler, but it seems to me that the odds of four safeties occurring in one week must be pretty huge. And when something that rare happens in the NFL, I'm sure we're all thinking the same thing: How did those safeties benefit the mob? Bring Back the Replacements There were a couple of bad calls this weekend, but three were egregious enough to warrant the NFL issuing apologies for the errors: two mea culpas went to the 49ers and Packers and one to the Chargers. In the 49ers-Packers game, after a third down play, Packers LB Clay Mathews was assessed a dead-pall penalty for unnecessary roughness after he launched himself at an out-of-bounds Colin Kaepernick . This was followed by OL Joe Staley running in to protect his QB, which drew an unnecessary roughness flag. The zebras then ruled off-setting penalties and replayed third down. The Niners scored on the next play. Even at home, I was screaming at the TV: "...

Good Call/Bad Call: Week 1 fantasysharks.com Fri 9/6/13 7:00 AM14 Comments

Welcome back to another year of "Good Call/Bad Call." If you're new to the column here's how things work; I comment on a few players from each major fantasy position, quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. I pick out those that I think would be a ‘good call' for you to start this week, and those that I think are a ‘bad call.' I try and stay away from the top tier guys, because telling you to start Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees would be like telling you to mercilessly ridicule the guy who drafts Aaron Hernandez this year and then yells, "Championship!" You're going to do it and not think twice about it. I also give a bit of fantasy football advice or commentary at the beginning of the article as well. I hope you enjoy it this season. Since this is Week 1, your starting lineup shouldn't involve too much thought unless you did some risky drafting. When in doubt for Week 1, start your veterans. Start the guys with a proven track record. If your rookie sleeper is on your bench for a game it's no big deal, but having him throw a low single-digit performance because he fumbled under the pressure of the NFL lights isn't how you want to start your fantasy season. See how he does for a week or two before you get him in your starting lineup. Now on to the calls of the week. Quarterbacks If you're in a smaller league or have a top quarterback, start them and skip to the running backs' section. Now if you waited on a quarterback or are thinking about playing matchups with your two middle-of-the-road quarterbacks or you're in a really deep league then hopefully you have Alex Smith this week. Smith gets to test out his new team, new weapons, and new scheme with an easy matchup against Jacksonville. The Jaguars allowed Matt Schaub, Carson Palmer and Ryan Tannehill to all have 20-plus point games against them last year, and I don't see any offseason moves that have improved their defense enough to think that Smith won't have a nice game against them. A matchup play you don't want to try this week is Andy Dalton against Chicago. The Bears defense was the fourth toughest for quarterbacks last year, and they've been consistently tough year in and year out. Look elsewhere for your starting quarterback this week. Dalton will have a tough time in Soldier Field. He's a bad call. Sam Bradford's trip to Arizona is not one you're going to want any part of. Surprisingly, Arizona has done a good job stopping quarterbacks in recent years. Maybe because ...

Should You Draft Him?: Houston Texans fantasysharks.com Mon 8/5/13 9:06 AM1 Comment

In the world of fantasy, the Houston Texans are incredibly boring in the best possible way. Matt Schaub will put up 4,000 yards and just enough touchdowns to be an ideal backup to an injury-prone starter. Coaches will talk a whole bunch about how they need to limit Arian Foster's workload en route to putting the ball in his hands close to 400 times. Andre Johnson's age and hamstrings will worry you a little bit, but he'll put up nearly 100 yards a week whenever he's healthy, and will probably do it even when he isn't. It probably won't be worth knowing the names of any wide receiver not named Andre Johnson. Owen Daniels will be decent. I like boring, because boring means I know exactly what I'm getting, and knowledge is power. The real life battle for the AFC South is going to be more interesting because the rapidly improving Indianapolis Colts should provide a stiff challenge for the throne, but for the purposes of these columns, this one should be the easiest one to write by far. Because the Texans are so predictably good, fantasy owners have had no problem accurately gauging their value in drafts. Because of this, you might notice a trend in this article (hint: Lots of Yes). So, should you draft him? (Average Draft Position, or ADP, is based on standard 12-team leagues. If you're looking for analysis of kickers and defenses, you need to spend less time thinking about fantasy football) Matt Schaub (ADP: Late Round 13): It's really not possible to overstate how consistent (read: boring) this team truly is. In Schaub's last two full seasons he put up completion percentages of 64.3 and 63.6. Interception totals in both years were 12. Touchdown totals were 22 and 24. Yards per attempt were 7.37 and 7.61. Passer ratings were 90.7 and 92. If CBS decided to show a rerun of a Texans game next season in place of a live broadcast, I'm not sure I would notice. Just kidding, Schaub's hairline is a dead giveaway. It's strange to call a guy who has passed for more than 4,000 yards in each of his last three full seasons a game manager, but that's kind of what he is in Houston's extremely run-heavy offense. Game planning, only having one viable wide receiver, and absolutely no rushing yardage seriously caps his upside. Actually, no rushing yardage is overselling his legs, because he was the only starting quarterback in the NFL with negative total rushing yardage on the season. He's being drafted as a low-end backup quarterback, and the passing yardage is ...

AFC South Outlook fantasysharks.com Mon 8/5/13 8:00 AM

Before I tell you about the AFC South, I need to tell you about an important dream (from here on out we'll refer to it as a nightmare) that I had the other night; so horrific that it kept me up the rest of the night. I was dreaming about a 10-team, standard scoring, snake draft. I was picking sixth overall, and every pick that happened was shocking to me. I was ecstatic as I watched my turn come up and no one had taken Adrian Peterson. Now, to be fair, I agree with them not taking Peterson that early. I think he gets outscored by quite a few running backs this year. He still finishes in the mid top-10. Either way, if you're picking sixth and Peterson is still available, that should be your pick. So there I was, unbeknownst to me the "nightmare" was about to begin. Peterson was just staring at me. Honestly, all I could think about were his thighs that are as big around as me, and the prospect of his goal of 2,500 yards. I am pretty sure I started salivating at this point because when I woke up my pillow had a puddle of drool on it. I could not believe I was about to steal him so late in the draft. That's when I somehow managed to take Minnesota's third-string quarterback with my first-round pick. I've never experienced such horror. Not only will I be waiting in most scoring formats on a quarterback, but to accidentally take the third stringer?! I still feel drenched in the cold sweat that I woke up in. Thankfully, it was just a nightmare. Speaking of nightmares, the AFC South has some nightmarishly good talent. Two solid quarterbacks, three arguably RB1 contenders (one of those three is the No. 1 overall best draft pick regardless of scoring systems), and a stable of good, up to elite, receivers. Yes, I think you could easily build a team just from this division; that is, if you know the right players to get. So, let me help you navigate this division to help you know which players you should target. As far as quarterbacks go, Andrew Luck has to be the best of the bunch here. He had an amazing rookie season and will only play better in his second year. He keeps all the same receivers all while adding a potential stud, and looks to have huge numbers. If he can improve his away game production, you're looking at a potential top 10 QB here. Even with the quarterback position so packed these days, Luck, to me, looks like someone who will be an every-league starter before midseason, if not earlier. There's only one other option in ...

Sleeping Your Way to the Top fantasysharks.com Tue 7/30/13 9:06 AM

Nothing like a little time away with the family to refresh yourself. I have been gone to help my parents celebrate their 50th wedding anniversary. Once again, Robert and Sandy Latzke, congratulations on your 50 years together. It was very good to see everyone again on such a joyous occasion. Speaking of reasons to celebrate, let us look at some sleeper candidates that could help you to that fantasy football championship that you have been looking for. In the most recent average draft position (ADP) data, by the 10th round (pick 100), your lineups in 10-team leagues should have 1.4 quarterbacks, 3.8 running backs, 4.0 wide receivers and .8 tight ends. I will give you several options to consider after the 100th pick, helping solidify your team and give you a step up on the rest of your league. Quarterback Andy Dalton (ADP 122) The Cincinnati Bengals made the playoffs last year despite several injuries to the offensive line and not much production from the second wide receiver position. Cincinnati went out and acquired another pass catching tight end in Tyler Eifert and a better pass catching receiver out of the backfield in Giovani Bernard. With improvement expected from Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones in their second year and a healthy offensive line, Dalton should improve in his third year. Carson Palmer (ADP 168) Let's face it, the cast of characters that played quarterback for the Arizona Cardinals last year was awful. That left a very bad taste in the mouth of every fantasy football player who drafted Larry Fitzgerald last year. Arizona decided to try and correct that and bring in Palmer to lead the offense. While Palmer may not be the most mobile of quarterbacks, he does still throw a very nice ball. Fitzgerald fans rejoice!! Word coming of Arizona continues to suggest that Michael Floyd has improved after his nice finish to last season. Many experts also expect improved tight end play with Rob Housler. The hope here is that the offensive line play can improve so that Palmer does not suffer from getting sacked too much. If so, Palmer could flirt with top 10 numbers. Matt Schaub (ADP 167) It seems like the Houston Texans have looked for a No. 2 wide receiver forever to lineup opposite Andre Johnson. Their prayers may have been answered during the NFL draft when they select DeAndre Hopkins out of Clemson. Hopkins is faster and runs better routes then the departed Kevin Walter and should provide a much better option. Owen Daniels is still a...