Waiver Wire Wonders - Week 13 fantasysharks.com Tue 11/27/12 1:06 AM

A trio of running backs with varying degrees of heat are the featured players in this week's edition, each of them getting regular touches on the ball for their respective teams. We boldly list another quarterback this week, and as usual we dumpster dive into the available tight ends to list one that has some fantasy relevance. A handful of wide receivers make an appearance, something for everyone this week! Smokin' Hot RB Knowshon Moreno, Denver Taking a page out of former Denver coach Mike Shanahan's "I hate fantasy football" playbook, John Fox dipped down in the Denver depth chart and tapped Moreno to be the starter in place of the injured Willis McGahee. Moreno had not even put on a uniform since Week 2, but Fox had a notion that Moreno would do a better job than Ronnie Hilliman and Lance Ball would have done protecting Peyton Manning. Moreno carried the rock 20 times for 85 yards and hauled in four passes for 26 yards while Hillman and Ball combined for only three touches the entire game. Moreno will be the featured back going forward for the Broncos, and he will likely be the top selection on this week's waiver wire. Solid Pickups RB Shane Vereen, New England The Patriots are scoring a ton of points on a weekly basis, with the touchdown scoring being spread among many players. Vereen has seen his share, scoring three times in the last four games. His numbers against the New York Jets are a little inflated, thanks to an 83-yard swing pass that resulted in one of the many New England scores on turkey day. Stevan Ridley is established as the starter and workhorse, but 10-plus carries in each of the last two games proves that coach Bill Belichick has no problem getting Vereen involved in the Patriots' explosive offense. Vereen is good for these dozen or so touches per game and a touchdown. That's an above-average fantasy performance for a backup running back so he should be owned in all formats. RB Bilal Powell, New York Jets Another "backup" that is getting a regular amount of touches at the running back position is Powell. The Jets have been splitting things right down the middle with he and Shonn Greene, with Powell getting a dozen touches in each of the last two games. Powell is also the goal line option for the Jets, hitting pay dirt three times in the past two games. In most formats, those numbers alone make him a viable flex-play, so he should be owned with consideration as a starter when necessary. On the Radar ...

Against the Odds - Week 12 (Friday Edition) fantasysharks.com Fri 11/23/12 12:00 PM

This week's lines are from USAToday.com (as of Thursday night). ATS - Against the Spread; SU - Straight Up; O/U - Over/Under Locks Denver at Kansas City (+10) In last week's win over the San Diego Chargers, the Bronocs lost running back Willis McGahee for most of the season due to a torn MCL. There is an outside chance he may be able to return sometime in the playoffs. In the meantime, rookie Ronnie Hillman and Lance Ball should be able to step up and keep the run game going. Denver has won six of their last seven games and look to feast on the Chiefs who have only one win on the season. Kansas City is going to stick with quarterback Brady Quinn who has a 52.9 QB rating on the season with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games while the Chiefs are 1-4. Gimme the Broncos minus the points. Seattle at Miami (+3) The Seahawks were on a bye last week and are on a two game winning streak with rookie quarterback Russell Wilson leading the way with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Running back Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 124 yards and a touchdown in the last two games and looks to keep it going against a Dolphins defense which ranks 9th in the league against the run. The Dolphins rank 27th in the league against the pass so Wilson shouldn't have a tough time finding Golden Tate downfield for a few big plays. Tate has three receiving touchdowns in his last two games. Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been awful in his last two games, throwing only one touchdown with five interceptions. Things won't get any easier against the Seahawks defense which ranks 2nd in the league in total points allowed (16.1 points per game) and 3rd in the league against the pass. Gimme the Seahawks minus the points. Games Tennessee at Jacksonville (O/U 44.5) Jaguars quarterback Chad Henne, who has taken over for Blaine Gabbert for the rest of the season, has played well when given a chance. Henne threw for 354 yards and four touchdowns in last week's overtime loss to the Houston Texans. This week he faces the Titans defense which ranks 31st in the league in points allowed (31.1 points per game). The Jaguars are not much better, ranking 29th in the league (28.9 points per game). Gimme the Over. Atlanta at Tampa Bay (O/U 50) The Falcons are averaging 27 points per game, 6th in the NFL while the Buccaneers are averaging 28.7 points per game, good for 5th in the NFL. The Tampa Bay offense ...

Week 12 Audibles - The Dirty Dozen fantasysharks.com Wed 11/21/12 10:00 AM

It's ironic that we have twelve scenarios to look at in week twelve. This week represents families coming together for a big meal, some talk about shopping, and the greatest sport in America. I'm talking about a battle in the trenches, where two teams try to impose their will on each other until one breaks. It's raw, filled with emotion, and captivating to watch. I'm calling out this week's dirty dozen scenarios that you need to know about and capitalize on. Let's get started before the lines start for black Friday's electronic fiesta. All Jim Harbaugh wanted for Christmas last year was a quarterback. Specifically, Harbaugh wanted Peyton Manning. The 49ers were in the running for a minute and make no mistake, it would have been a defining moment. Manning was courted by a few teams, and eventually signed in Denver. Meanwhile, Alex Smith was flapping in the wind without a contract. Had Manning signed with San Francisco, Smith would have been either a starter for a doormat team, or a clipboard holder. It is today's reality that he could be that clipboard holder watching Colin Kaepernick start for the 49ers. It took a concussion to get Kaepernick a start versus a defense that has tormented many a signal caller. Kaepernick rose to the challenge and has people talking, including Harbaugh. During the press conference, Harbaugh said that he would evaluate that later this week. It's what he didn't say that struck a chord with me. Kaepernick was not only spot on with his throws but brought something to the table that Smith lacks, elusiveness. The bottom line is that Kaepernick has won the job. Should you hear some non-sense about Smith being the starter, it will take one bad read, or turnover before Smith is benched. Smith will be on the sidelines before long. I'm betting it's this week. When LeSean McCoy went down last Sunday, he opened a door for one of the most electric runners that folks need to get a look at. Bryce Brown will start this week if McCoy is unable to go. It is my belief that McCoy will be rested regardless of the concussion tests. Don't get too excited that he will take McCoy's job, because it won't happen. What will happen is that you will see what Brown can do with 20 carries. The answer is look out. This is unbelievable natural talent. This week versus Carolina who allows 118 yards per game on the ground (average of 4.2ypc), look for Brown to get to the second level. His game speed is faster than his 40-time indicates. Panthers rookie ...

Fantasy 411 - Week 12 fantasysharks.com Tue 11/20/12 7:30 AM

At this late juncture in the fantasy football season it is highly unlikely that your team isn't dealing with at least a few injuries. Even "healthy" players are ailing and taking the field at less than 100 percent. Latching hold of a key free agent or a spot starter can be the difference in a pivotal late season win and a devastating loss. Here are a few "Band-Aid Bandits" that you should keep your eye on to fill out your roster if you find yourself limping towards the finish line. After a record-setting season in 2011, New England's Rob Gronkowski was an early-round pick on draft day this year. On Sunday, Gronkowski suffered a broken forearm late in the game that required surgery. The injury is expected to sideline him for 4-6 weeks. With such a key contributor sidelined, you will have to scramble to find a fill-in. The tight end position is thin enough to start with. You are simply not going to find a suitable fill-in to compensate for what you are losing from your lineup. There are a few options to plug in while Gronkowski is out. The Carolina Panthers appear to be more committed to the run of late. With Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the backfield, the Panthers' play action game will freeze linebackers and free Greg Olsen up to find open pockets in the middle of the field. Olsen is a hot-and-cold option, but has the talent and is surrounded by a strong offense that could position him to have some big games. A lesser-known option that is available in many leagues is Oakland's Brandon Myers. Myers hauled in his third touchdown of the season on Sunday. He is not a big yardage threat, but he has consistently been catching five or six passed for around 60 yards a week most of the season. There are more flashy tight ends, but none of those guys are likely to be available at this point of the season. Willis McGahee suffered a broken bone and torn ligament this week that put him on the shelf for 6-8 weeks. The extended absence renders McGahee nearly expendable in most leagues. Ronnie Hillman and Lance Ball figure to share carries in his absence. Hillman will likely get more of the carries and has the greater value for your team. McGahee has been solid, but unspectacular, on the season. Hillman could offer a little more value with his nose for the end zone. Coach John Fox likes to run the ball and Peyton Manning will demand the respect of defenses, opening running lanes for whoever is getting the ball. Don't expect Hillman to be a ...

Monday Night Takeaways -- Week 11 fantasysharks.com Tue 11/20/12 5:00 AM

San Francisco 49ers 32, Chicago Bears 7 Bears After watching this game, it's obvious that Jay Cutler is the straw that stirs the drink. Chicago was manhandled by San Francisco in all three phases of the game, and if you've ever read my column you've never seen these three words - "I've got nothing." 49ers The 49ers have a serious problem as backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick (243 yards, two touchdowns) may be better suited to lead this team than starter Alex Smith. Kaepernick was other-worldly, eating up the top-rated Chicago defense like grandma's Thanksgiving Jello mold. The second-year quarterback played like a seasoned veteran calling audibles at the line of scrimmage, looking off defenders with his eyes, throwing accurately into tight windows and dropping dimes to multiple players. Most impressive was Kaepernick staying in the pocket and throwing the football, rather than relying on his superior athleticism like so many young quarterbacks. I cannot say enough about how impressive this game was for a player making his first NFL start. Unreal. Apparently, all Vernon Davis needed was a change at the quarterback position. Averaging 2.5 fantasy points per game over the past four weeks, Davis hauled in six balls for 83 yards and one touchdown. All the credit belongs to the quarterback for finding his tight end on numerous routes hitting Davis in stride. In fact, his night could have been better as Kaepernick barely overthrew an open Davis down the seam in what would have been a huge gain. Davis owners will lament the impending return of Alex Smith. Tuesday Morning Quick Hits • Willis McGahee has torn his MCL and suffered a broken leg. He can safely be dropped while Ronnie Hillman is shooting up the waiver wire with Lance Ball the new handcuff. • Byron Leftwich suffered two broken ribs on his end zone celebration. Charlie Batch is the likely starter in Week 12. Expect a run-heavy game plan. • Rob Gronkowski underwent surgery for a broken left forearm Monday morning. He is expected to miss 4-8 weeks making his projected return Week 16, at the earliest (ouch). • Jalen Parmele and Chad Henne will start for Jacksonville in Week 12. Henne brings life to Justin Blackmon and Cecil Shorts, while Parmele should be picked up in every league with Maurice Jones-Drew likely out until Week 14. • Fred Jackson is still not medically cleared after a Week 10 concussion. Even if he plays, he'll likely be limited. Keep C.J. Spiller in your lineups. • ...

Surprise & Demise: Five Facts fantasysharks.com Wed 8/29/12 9:06 AM6 Comments

Looking for (and actually finding) value in a draft is just as essential as avoiding the busts. A majority of players do not even finish close to their average draft positions (ADP), and blindly trusting the majority of drafters is a recipe for failure. Some players are surprises and perform better than expected, while others will be your demise and are labeled as busts. Here are three surprises and demises heading into the 2012 NFL season. Surprise: Davone Bess, WR, Miami (ADP of 187) 1. Chad Johnson is no longer on the Miami Dolphins. 2. Brandon Marshal is now in Chicago, and his 140 targets from 2011 will go elsewhere. 3. Head Coach Joe Philbin is the former offensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers (2007-11), whose offense ranked in the Top 10 for total points scored and total yards each year. 4. Bess is now the WR1 for the Miami Dolphins. His best season was in 2010 when he had 79 catches for 820 yards and five touchdowns as the WR2. 5. Bess is going undrafted in 49.8 percent of points per reception leagues. Surprise: Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis (ADP of 87) 1. Brown had a career-high of 4.8 yards per carry in 2011. 2. Mewelde Moore has been sidelined with a rib injury this preseason. 3. Delone Carter has been sidelined with a rib injury this preseason. 4. Brown was tied for fifth in yards after contact in 2011. 5. Drafting a running back with Brown's expected workload is a steal in the eighth round. Demise: Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver (ADP of 113) 1. On average, Willis McGahee has only missed one game per season. 2. John Fox does not start rookie running backs. 3. Lance Ball is the No. 2 running back on the depth chart. 4. Hillman has already sustained two hamstring injuries this preseason. 5. Hillman will never see the field on third down until his pass protection improves. Demise: Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia (ADP of 41) 1. Vick is 32 years old. 2. In nine NFL seasons, Vick has played 16 games only once. 3. The Philadelphia Eagles have the seventh-most difficult passing strength of schedule for the fantasy regular season in 2012. 4. Vick has been injured in the first two preseason games this year. 5. Despite only playing only 13 games, Vick still managed a career-high 14 interceptions in 2011.

2012 Divisional Playoff Round fantasysharks.com Sun 1/15/12 8:00 AM

Welcome to the Divisional Round edition of the Brew Crew Corner. During the postseason I go back over the season and analyze how it went. I like to look at the value that each position gave -- both positive or negative -- which I use to help prepare for next season. Players that finish with a big positive number can be great picks next season if their draft stock is still a good value, while players with a negative number might fall hard in drafts which will be another type of value pick. Beware as sometimes players that have a big season can sometimes be overvalued in drafts, making their draft position too high. Sometimes players who finished with a negative value will be players you would want to avoid next season. Each situation should be looked at on case by case. When looking at these values, you should question. Did the player suffer an injury, and how likely are they to return healthy? Did this player have a breakout season or did he benefit from an injury to other players? We will take a look at the running back value for the 2011. I determine the value by taking the Average Draft Position (ADP) from this year's draft and comparing it to the final rankings of a player based on fantasy points. For example, if a running back was going in drafts as the 10th running back and finished the season fifth overall among running backs, his value would be +5. Top 20 Running Backs with Good Value in 2011 RANK Player +/- 7 Darren Sproles, New Orleans +38 41 Toby Gerhart, Minnesota +37 34 Dexter McCluster, Kansas City +35 42 Kevin Smith, Detroit +34 47 Jackie Battle, Kansas City +32 11 Michael Bush, Oakland +29 52 Lance Ball, Denver +28 53 Chris Ogbonnaya, Cleveland +28 29 DeMarco Murray, Dallas +26 56 Kahlil Bell, Chicago +26 37 Donald Brown, Indianapolis +26 5 Marshawn Lynch, Seattle +24 59 Marcel Reece, Oakland +24 26 Roy Helu, Washington +23 51 Maurice Morris, Detroit +23 12 Reggie Bush, Miami +21 50 Isaac Redman, Pittsburgh +20 23 Willis McGahee, Denver +19 30 Ben Tate, Houston +18 20 Mike Tolbert, San Diego +15 Top 20 Running Backs with Poor Value in 2011 RANK Player +/- 98 Jamaal Charles, Kansas City -98 138 Jerome Harrison, Detroit -82 134 Bilal Powell, New York Jets -68 109 Ronnie Brown, Philadelphia -63 118 Shane Vereen, New England -60 80 Knowshon Moreno, Denver -59 83 Ryan Torain, Washington -39 114 Jamie Harper, Tenessee -39 ...

Rain, Wind, Cold Fronts, and Scrubs - Week 16 Audibles fantasysharks.com Sat 12/24/11 12:00 PM

Lots of buzz going on this week with respect to weather this week. Yes, the weather outside is frightful but the ground game is so delightful. As the winter chill takes over this week, teams will get more and more conservative in play calling. Some teams I'd say benefit from playing in the cold weather. One of these teams is the Denver Broncos who center around running the ball. This week you find the Broncos @ Bills. Buffalo's defense has given up 32.0 points per game during the losing stretch. The Bills allowed a season-high 254 rushing yards against the Dolphins last weekend. I would not hesitate to start any of the horses in Denver which includes Tim Tebow, Willis McGahee, and Lance Ball. Ball really showed a burst last week that I had not noticed and while McGahee remains the back who gets the bulk of the workload, Ball certainly has made the most of his recent opportunities. Temperature in this game will be below freezing and with a system on its way, This could be a turnover rich and low scoring affair. C.J. Spiller owners have been pleasantly surprised as to the production. I think he makes an okay play again this week. Do yourself a favor and avoid any kickers in this one. The cold does strange things to non football players. This is hardly a week to fool with mother nature. I'm sure you have all played in the snow at one point in your life. Running the football successfully is all about balance and the short choppy steps ala Keith Byars. Those of you that watched the former Miami Dolphin great understand the reference and running style. Playing in the rain is however a much different animal altogether. Look at the rain this weekend in Seattle as the 49ers try to outlast the Seahawks. When I say outlast, I mean this could be ugly as the weather forecast is chance of rain. I'm not suggesting that teams aren't used to rain, but it sure has an effect on turnovers and footing. My advice is read the box score the day after unless your television only gets one ball game. There is a lot to be said for the afternoon nap. You probably are going to be up late wrapping gifts. The most exciting news this week is that Josh McCown will be at the helm of the Chicago Bears. Khalil Bell will be the starting ball carrier. Neither one of these guys would have ever been drafted in any league. I say bring on the scrubs. As long as we are at it, let's get a look at rookie running back Armando Allen. Allen is fifth all time in Notre Dame history with 4,337 all ...

The Feeding Frenzy fantasysharks.com Tue 12/20/11 1:00 PM

The fantasy championships are finally here for most of us. Congratulations if you've made it this far. At this time of year, some guys you may not have started all season could help lead you to fantasy gold. This week I will look at five players who were an afterthought on draft day but could be the deciding factor in you winning or losing your league. Next Monday will be my final column of the season. Good luck this week everyone. Kahlil Bell, RB, Chicago -- Bell is the kind of late season pickup that could lead people to a fantasy title. I hope that doesn't happen considering I'm playing against him this week but there's a lot to like about Bell. After his disastrous performance against the Denver Broncos, Marion Barber found himself riding the pine this past Sunday in favor of Bell. Bell played 43 snaps against the Seahawks compared to Barber's 17 and he was able to rack up 108 total yards and a score. The reason I like Bell this week is because the Green Bay Packers are likely to be in a foul mood after just an awful effort against the Kansas City Chiefs. My guess is Chicago will be playing from behind early, so Bell will get a lot of opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield. If you play in a points per reception league, Bell is a better start this week than someone like Adrian Peterson, who still isn't 100 percent healthy. Like I said, I go against Bell and I'm afraid if I lose he could be the deciding factor. If you have Bell, you would wise to find a spot in your lineup for him this week. Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis -- I loved Brown coming out of college, but until lately he's been a huge bust. Just when we were about to close the book on Brown's career he comes out of nowhere and turns into a solid fantasy player. Brown is coming off a 161-yard performance against Tennessee that included a dynamic 80-yard touchdown run. Brown has now scored in three of his last four games, so he's getting carries and he's finding the end zone. On paper, Brown doesn't have a great matchup this week against Houston. However, it looks to me like the Texans defense is getting worn down. Houston is down to its third string quarterback and the defense has been on the field a lot over the last few games. Against Carolina, they were pushed around and the unit just looked tired to me. Brown isn't a great play this week, but if you're struggling to find a flex option he's worth a look. I don't think 60 yards and a score is an ...

Waiver Wire Wonders fantasysharks.com Tue 11/15/11 3:06 PM1 Comment

We're back to our regular format this week as we tier up the potential waiver wire candidates for this week. A slight deviation as we dump the lowest category and introduce a "Quarterback Discussion" section. With so many going down this week, a discussion of the potential replacements seems appropriate. This week's column was written while wondering what the point spread might be if Green Bay played against Indianapolis. I'm thinking in the 30 range, and even then, would anyone touch the Colts? Should be it higher? After a full slate of games last week, we've got some more byes to get past in week eleven. On to this week's waiver wire wonders.... Smokin' Hot RB Lance Ball, Denver To say that the Broncos' passing game is non-existent is giving it too much credit, and yet they continue to find ways to win games. Knowshon Moreno has been ruled out this week, and while reports are that Willis McGahee will be available this week, expect Ball to once again command a heavy load. He responded to being the only healthy option last week by carrying the ball 30 times for just under a hundred yards. With or without McGahee, Ball will be very much involved this week and his number will be called early and often. WR Vincent Brown, San Diego The rookie has performed very well the past couple of weeks, putting up 79 and 97 yards, respectively. He narrowly missed a second touchdown this week, settling for the single score. With Malcom Floyd's status still unknown, Brown has impressed and has earned himself some playing time even if Floyd returns. Only owned in 17% of online leagues, Brown is a short-term start as well as a long-term fantasy producer. WR Earl Bennett, Chicago We mentioned Bennett in this space last week, and his ownership shot up to 59% of online leagues. Six catches for 81 yards this past week confirms his standing as the top wideout in Chicago. He is a solid WR2 fantasy starter, and won't be flying under the fantasy radar for long. Consistency will be his name, expect 5-7 catches and 75-95 yards on a weekly basis. Solid Pickups Jacksonville Defense at Cle, vs Tex, vs SD, vs TB, at Atl, at Ten, vs Ind In general, if you can find a defense on the waiver wire that is playing the Colts or Browns, you grab and play them. If you are looking to settle on a defense for the rest of the season, consider the Jaguars. Sure, they bulked up against Indianapolis this past week, but they have been solid all season prior to that game. They've posted 21 sacks to...