Inside The Gamebook - Week 3 fantasysharks.com Sat 9/22/12 11:00 AM
Victor Cruz, A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson and Jimmy Graham have all seen double-digit targets through two games, and Cruz is currently leading the league with 28 targets. Green's 23 targets are encouraging regarding his potential based on opportunity; however, he is only averaging 10.7 yards per reception while converting 52 percent of his targets into receptions (average of .78 points per target), which is the lowest average per target out of the Top 30 ranked receivers. While these numbers are a little troublesome regarding his production, some deep balls could drive these numbers up very quick, and you have to expect those sooner rather than later.
Jackson has seen 20 targets through two games but he is converting a below-average 45 percent of his targets into receptions. Despite the low conversion rate, he is ranked sixth in the league in yards per reception (19.4) and is averaging 1.15 points per target. His conversion rate will get better as he and Josh Freeman become more comfortable, and his production should be on par with his career production while in San Diego.
Other receivers with more than 14 targets through two games who have a below-average conversion rate include: Stevie Johnson (40 percent), but Johnson is ranked 11th in the league in yards per reception at 18.5 and he also has a 33 percent receiving touchdown percentage. These numbers are encouraging regarding his potential if he gets his conversion rate up to, or above, 50 percent.
Santonio Holmes is at a 37 percent conversion rate and is averaging .79 points per target. While these numbers are concerning, he did miss time in the preseason and could have timing issues with Mark Sanchez. But what looks to be more troublesome is the erratic play from Sanchez, which could limit his potential upside.
Larry Fitzgerald is at a 31 percent conversion rate and is averaging .38 points per target. These numbers are very troublesome and the problems are his surroundings -- the offensive line, the quarterback position and running backs have all played poorly so far -- and this will limit his potential to produce on a consistent level.
Fred Davis appears to have become an afterthought in the Washington passing game and is ranked 24th in targets to tight ends. He is averaging .59 points per target and is only converting 44 percent of his targets into receptions.
Percy Harvin is averaging a low 10.4 yards per reception but he is converting an above-average 86 percent of his targets...
Out of the Cellar fantasysharks.com Fri 9/14/12 5:00 AM 2 Comments
Initially built by NASA to set lines for the Las Vegas casinos in the late 50's (who do you think funded the Apollo missions? The government? It was the mob...), The Sin City Betbot 6000 calculated lines for over 30 years. The Betbot was given various upgrades through the years, not always with the best equipment, but he was very good at setting lines, and living the good life.
The Betbot was de-commissioned in 1990 after San Francisco destroyed Denver in the Super Bowl. The 45 point spread simply fried a number of the Betbot's wires and he retired. The Betbot was discovered by Fantasysharks.com and retooled to give fantasy advice. He lives now to give his own unique, well cultured take on the NFL.The Sin City Betbot 6000 Presents is transcribed by Joe Petrizzi and Tom Walls because "typing.. .BZZT... is a dame's job".
I've said it many times before, I simply don't like that blasted twang-twang Rock N Roll. Give me a song by Ol' Blue Eyes (a close, personal friend of mine) any day. I do make some exceptions , though. When I see a raw talent which transcends genre, or...hell, even time; and I'll get on-board with that talent, no matter what they are singing. Well, I met such an exceptional talent on the mean streets (as I was leaving Heather Thomas' apartment -- 5:30 AM) of Los Angeles in July of 1981.
Stephen Pearcy back then had the look of a dangerous hoodlum, someone who you couldn't trust with your money, your wife, or your good name...BZZT...I knew better though. I knew this kid had a heart of gold and a set of pipes to match. Sure, I tried to get him to get out of Rock N Roll. But it was in his bleeping heart. Ha...hell... Even I grew to love his music after hanging out with him for some time. I got him and his band mates to change their band name, and Ratt was born.
I used my connections to get Stephen and the boys hooked up with Milton Berle who helped usher them to super-stardom. You can catch a glimpse of me back-stage during their video for their heart-wrenching ballad ‘Slip of the Lip' , right here.
Why do I bring this up? Because folks are hyped up about Robert Griffin III . He reminds me a bit of Stephen Pearcy. We'll see if he can stay on top as long as Mr. Pearcy and Ratt have.
NFC Notes - Speaking of young Mr. Griffin III - he torched a very suspect Saints defense. He did it while attempting 26 passes, hitting 19. He's shown that he has the skills to get the ball to open receivers - and while I want to see him against better...
QBBC: The Texans-Tampa Connection "Start Mosh Schauman!" dynastyfootballwarehou... Fri 8/17/12 8:09 AM 1 Comment
the "quarterback by committee" draft strategy and combines Matt Schaub and Josh Freeman to create Mosh Schauman.
Diamonds That Won't be Rough for Long fantasysharks.com Thu 7/26/12 5:30 AM
I'm always a proponent of ensuring that research is done in order to find that guy or three that may just bust through and take the football world by surprise. Oftentimes, those are guys that can and will win you fantasy leagues. Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton and LeSean McCoy last season. Arian Foster and Michael Vick the previous season. Those are just a few examples of players to whom I may be referring. Often times these players will just fall into your lap via a waiver wire snag (Vick and Newton), but at times with good research and a little bit of luck you will put yourself in a very good position to benefit and ultimately be successful.
I'm fully aware it is early, but while no one on this list is new, most everyone on this list will be overlooked, even if only for a half of a round. So, here is a list of guys that, based simply on the previous season's lack of production and the offseason thus far, I can see far out-producing the draft slot in which they will most likely go on average.
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning - Yeah, I get it, but let's all be honest about where he is going to be drafted this year due to the concerns about the neck and the fact that there were people that got burned badly by this draft pick last season. In my league, best case is late third round to the early fourth round, and my guess would be is that it will be a fair bit higher than most fantasy football leagues. That is exactly why I'm going target him as a guy (even in my quarterback-crazy league) that I can get a bit later and still get very good to elite numbers at the important position of quarterback. With emerging wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, the addition of Jacob Tamme and Brandon Stokley (for familiarity with Manning). Couple that with a top rushing attack from 2011. It all spells excellence in my book for Manning this season.
Drafted in the fourth round but will give you Top 5 quarterback numbers.
Ben Roethlisberger - This guy has had the potential to be a Top 5 quarterback for several years now but a porous offensive line and injuries have consistently derailed him. Well, again this is simply a guy that is most likely going to be drafted later than many other quarterbacks and has the potential to be much better than that draft slot. I don't buy this rhetoric that the Pittsburgh Steelers are all of sudden going to take the ball out of Roethlisberger's hands because Todd Haley has arrived, especially since Haley orchestrated ...
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2012 Offseason Breakdown fantasysharks.com Tue 7/10/12 12:15 PM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
Schedule Strength: 28th
Postseason Weather issues: None (occasional thunderstorms in August and September).
Offensive Line Ranking: 10th
Head Coach -- Greg Schiano
Yet another of the league's defensive-minded head coaches, Schiano played linebacker in college, later becoming a defensive assistant coach for the Chicago Bears. Of course, Schiano is most notably the former head coach for the Rutgers University Scarlet Knights. New to the NFL's fraternity of head coaches, we're quickly learning Schiano is managing his team with the mindset of a drill sergeant (toes on the line!). What does this all mean in terms of fantasy football, you ask? Hard-nosed defensive head coaches typically prefer an offensive system predicated upon a strong running attack, of which Schiano himself has confirmed. Given Schiano's defensive history we should also examine the offensive coordinator with greater scrutiny.
Offensive Coordinator -- Mike Sullivan
Hired this past offseason as the Buccaneers' new offensive coordinator, Sullivan has limited NFL coaching experience, and none as a coordinator. However, Sullivan does boast two Super Bowl rings as the quarterbacks coach for Eli Manning and the New York Giants. The only plausible connection we can make is to the run-and-shoot offensive system displayed in New York. To the contrary, we've already heard from Schiano that this team is going to be predicated upon running the football (which sounds great until the defense surrenders 21 points). All told, we should expect a very balanced run-pass offensive system. On a side note, Sullivan is a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and former United States Army Ranger, further substantiating Schiano's management style.
QB -- Josh Freeman
Freeman showed amazing progression in 2010, only to recede in 2011. History also suggests fourth-year quarterbacks make for inconsistent fantasy starters, whereby production is largely dictated upon the offensive system and defensive matchup. As for Freeman, he has shown good vision and mobility for a big man making him hard to tackle further extending the play (very similar to Ben Roethlisberger). Like most big quarterbacks, Freeman also has excellent arm strength allowing him to stretch the field. The addition of a newly acquired wide receiver Vincent Jackson and left guard Carl Nicks, along with a refocused Mike Williams (allegedly) will aid in Freeman's development. On the ...
The DLF Mailbag dynastyleaguefootball.com Tue 6/26/12 8:00 AM
Sam Bradford, Josh Freeman, Coby Fleener and Tim screaming from his soapbox are all featured in this week's mailbag.
Report: Bucs QB Freeman to wait on discussing new pact brunoboys.net Sat 3/24/12 1:10 PM 2 Comments
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman isn't rushing to discuss the terms of a new contract, the Tampa Bay Times reported on Saturday.
Start/Bench: Week 15 fantasysharks.com Wed 12/14/11 9:00 AM 6 Comments
Hopefully your fantasy team was able to survive last week with stars like Greg Jennings and DeMarco Murray getting injured. Late season injuries are always tough on your fantasy squad, but they also present opportunity for owners who squirreled away the likes of Felix Jones and Donald Driver to reap the benefits. There are some very strong plays this week to help you advance in your league as the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and Washington Redskins pile up big yards in the air while the Oakland Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals get it done on the ground.
I utilize statistical analysis combined with more than 15 years of fantasy football experience to give you an inside look of how players will perform on a week-to-week basis. The Studs list will be updated on a regular basis as players emerge and injuries occur, but be patient with those players listed early in the season. They were ranked and selected high in your draft for a reason.
When using this list, try and remember a couple basic rules:
1) Studs -- Always play your studs. Each position will include a list of players that are considered studs and should not be benched. If you have the luxury of needing to decide between studs, check out the matchups or feel free to let the shark tank assist you in your decisions.
2) Depth -- Every fantasy team is different and some have more depth than others. Only follow the recommended moves if your team depth allows you to make such a move.
Quarterbacks
Studs
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay at Kansas City
Drew Brees, New Orleans at Minnesota
Tom Brady, New England at Denver
Cam Newton, Carolina at Houston
Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants vs. Washington
Matthew Stafford, Detroit at Oakland
Tony Romo, Dallas at Tampa Bay
Matt Ryan, Atlanta vs. Jacksonville
Philip Rivers, San Diego vs. Baltimore
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh at San Francisco *Questionable: Ankle*
Start
Rex Grossman, Washington at N.Y. Giants: As expected, Grossman had a solid game last week against the New England Patriots, throwing for more than 250 yards and tossing two touchdowns for the third time in the past four games. This week, Grossman faces a Giants' secondary that was torched by the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. Grossman also had success against the Giants back in Week 1 when he threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns. Expect similar success this week as Grossman has turned himself into a late-season sleeper.
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay vs. ...
Fantasy Intelligence Report - Week 14 fantasysharks.com Sun 12/11/11 1:06 AM
N.N. -- News Nuggets
According to the Houston Chronicle, Texans' wide receiver Andre Johnson will not play on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. This will be Johnson's seventh game missed due to hamstring injuries, and he, like fantasy owners, is growing frustrated.
"It's very disappointing," Johnson said after Friday's practice. "You work your butt off to get back after missing six games, and then to have something like this to happen again is very frustrating."
According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Minnesota Vikings' quarterback Christian Ponder is insisting that he'll be ready come Sunday.
"I'm confident that I'll be able to go. I think it's a matter of my effectiveness," Ponder said. "I don't know how effective I'll be. I would like to think I'd be playing 100 percent, but I don't know if that's 100 percent true." Ponder is listed on the injury report as questionable with a hip injury.
According to the St. Petersburg Times, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are optimistic Josh Freeman will be ready to play this week.
"He went out and threw the ball pretty productively, felt pretty good," head coach Raheem Morris said Thursday.
Freeman is listed on the injury report as questionable. The Buccaneers play the Jaguars this week, a defense that will be without pass rusher Aaron Kampman and that was ripped apart by San Diego Chargers' quarterback Philip Rivers on Monday night.
According to the Boston Globe, the speculation that there is something wrong with Wes Welker's wrist was put to rest quickly by the Patriots wide receiver.
"I never wore a brace, so I'm not sure where that's coming from,'' Welker said. "I don't know. Whatever they think, they think. I'm just trying to play some ball.''
Welker is listed as probable on the injury report with a minor knee issue. He should be good to play.
According to the Newark Star-Ledger, Giants' running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are expected to play on Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys. Jacobs said his hamstring injury won't be a problem, but there is still some concern about Bradshaw's foot fracture healing properly. The good news is that both runners are listed as probable on the injury report. The bad news is that the Cowboys have surrendered just 100.5 yards per game and seven touchdowns on the ground this season. In other words, it may be wise to look elsewhere for fantasy production.
According to the Green Bay Press Gazette, with running back James Starks set to miss this ...
Buccaneers activate QB Carpenter; Freeman to sit? brunoboys.net Sat 12/3/11 5:00 PM
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers activated quarterback Rudy Carpenter from the practice squad Saturday, raising the possibility that Josh Freeman will not play in Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers.