2014 IDP DRAFT REVIEW: Defensive Linemen fantasysharks.com Thu 5/15/14 9:06 AM

It seemed for a time it would never get here, but at long last the 2014 NFL draft has come and gone. Now, 256 young men know where their NFL careers will begin. Scores more signed as undrafted free agents after the dust settled. Hundreds of those players ply their trade on the defensive side of the ball. Among the defensive stalwarts who were drafted were 41 defensive linemen. The first, South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney , made news by being the first overall player selected. The last, Missouri's Michael Sam (at No. 249) made news by becoming the first openly gay player drafted by a major North American sport. Culturally significant though that may be, here at Fantasy Sharks we're less concerned about who kisses whom on TV, and more worried about what this year's crop of newcomers brings to the table in Individual Defensive Player (IDP) leagues. With that in mind, here's a look back at the players featured in the 2014 IDP Draft Preview Series at IDP Manor and how those players' fantasy prospects are affected by their new homes. We'll start things off with a video look at this year's Top 10 rookie defensive linemen in IDP leagues, with special attention paid to the pair most likely to offer a short-term return on a draft-day investment. Jadeveon Clowney -- DE, South Carolina (Houston Texans - Round 1, Pick 1) From an NFL perspective, the idea of pairing Clowney with J.J. Watt must have defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel doing cartwheels and Jake Locker making a mess in his pants. For his part, Clowney can't wait, telling John McClain of The Houston Chronicle , "I used to think if I ever got to play with J.J I'd get a lot of sacks because he gets double-teamed all the time. That would take a lot of pressure off me. Hopefully, I can take a lot of pressure off him." Unfortunately, landing in Houston also means playing standing up as a 3-4 outside linebacker. If your IDP provider affords Clowney defensive line eligibility (as Fleaflicker will reportedly do), Clowney is an upside DL2 and easily this year's top rookie IDP. However, at providers like My Fantasy League , where Clowney will be classified as a linebacker, he'll be a high-variance, low-tackle option best-suited to big play-heavy scoring systems. Aaron Donald -- DT, Pittsburgh (St. Louis Rams -- Round 1, Pick 13) If Clowney's landing spot was a worst-case scenario, then Donald's was the opposite, with the explosive 285-pounder joining what is now a loaded front with the Rams....

Dynasty Rookie Rankings fantasysharks.com Tue 5/13/14 9:06 AM

It may have taken awhile to finally arrive but the 2014 NFL draft was well worth the wait. The weekend was full of twists, turns and the inevitable longer than expected waiting for certain names to be called. There were fewer early round trades than expected but enough to keep things interesting. It's always a fascinating event to behold and this year's version did not disappoint. Grades will be assigned much too early to teams because...well... we love grades, dang it! I will allow folks much more invested in the college game to handle those assignments and stick to what I know best. Now that we know where the rookies will be plying their trade for the 2014 season we can begin to evaluate their fantasy value. For the sake of this article we will be looking at the dynasty value of this year's rookie class. Some of these youngsters are poised to hit the ground running and pay immediate dividends for fantasy owners while others will require a bit of time to reach the potential shown in college. Injuries, offensive schemes and sometimes just plain old luck can factor in to a player getting the chance to shine and projecting when those opportunities will come to fruition can be a bit tricky. That being said here is a first look at dynasty rankings for the top of the rookie class of 2014 from an offensive skill position standpoint. QUARTERBACKS 1. Teddy Bridgewater, MINNESOTA: Bridgewater will beat out Matt Cassel for the starting gig and benefits from playing with the best RB in the league and a solid supporting cast. The QB of the future will also be the starting QB week one in 2014. 2. Blake Bortles, JACKSONVILLE: Forget the talk of sitting out a season as Bortles starts from week one. He'll grow in the offense with fellow rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson along with veteran Cecil Shorts as his receiving corps. 3. Johnny Manziel, CLEVELAND: Manziel's devil may care playing style doesn't usually lend itself to a lengthy NFL career. He'll be exciting as long as he is on the field but the concern over the lack of immediate receiving options and potential for injuries limit his long term value. 4. Derek Carr, OAKLAND: Carr will sit and learn the offense behind Matt Schaub for at least one season. In the meantime, the Raiders can upgrade the WR and TE positions before Carr takes the reins. 5. Zach Mettenberger, TENNESSEE: The Titans would love for Mettenberger to get completely healthy before taking over as the starting QB. Jake ...

Rock and a Hard Place - Week 13 fantasysharks.com Fri 11/29/13 4:40 AM

We always talk about guys missing time with bye weeks and having to scramble to find a replacement. But the bye weeks are over. Then there are the guys on the injury report, and when they go down, you find yourself in a fix. I'm looking at you Arian Foster, Julio Jones and Aaron Rodgers. Those three derailed fantasy seasons all on their own. There are also guys that simply underachieve. I'm not talking about 12th rounders. I'm talking about guys you targeted in your draft or in a trade. Two words: Trent Richardson. The guy was a first-round pick and he's been triggering gag reflexes for 11 games. Ray Rice has been a mess this season. David Wilson was a disappointment when he was able to suit up, and now he's done for the season. So it's Week 13, it could be that you finally need to take a chance on someone rather than go down with the S.S. Roddy White. Some may want to "dance with the guy you came with," but if he brought you to the dance on the back of his tricycle, I think you can ditch him at the punch bowl. Below, I'll list a player with some upside for this week, their Week 13 matchup, and the percentage of leagues in which he is owned according to our friends at fleaflicker.com . DISCLAIMER - The hope is that you don't find yourself in a situation like this. The hope is that you dodge the bullet. But hope won't help you come Sunday. Let's move on to this week's targets, keeping in mind that these aren't every week starters. Instead, these are guys that should only be used if you're in some kind of roster emergency. In case of emergency, break glass. Quarterback Josh McCown at Minnesota -- 23 percent. McCown has done a nice job filling in for Jay Cutler. With Cutler still on the mend, the Chicago Bears will look to McCown once again in a big divisional game in Minnesota on Sunday. Coming off a game in which he topped 300 yards and threw two touchdowns, McCown will look to keep the Bears atop the NFC North. Working in his favor is the fact that no team has been more generous to opposing fantasy quarterbacks than the Vikings, and that Bears defense hasn't been stopping anyone lately. We project 330 passing yards and two scores for McCown. Ryan Fitzpatrick at Indianapolis -- 20 percent. Like McCown, Fitzpatrick has filled in adequately, stepping in when Jake Locker was lost for the season. He has no problem slinging it around the yard, but his challenge has always been decision-making. You'd expect more from a Harvard graduate, but he throws...

The Prognosticator - Week 11 fantasysharks.com Thu 11/14/13 8:06 PM1 Comment

The Titans are tough to play at home. I realize they've lost Jake Locker for the season but Matt Hasselbeck makes a terrific backup. The Titans have been an energetic group as of late, expect nothing less here. The Colts will struggle a bit which is an uncustomary position for them. The blueprint on how to get after them was put forth by the Rams last week for all the world to see. Steer clear of your Colts, the Titans will do a nice job of locking them up. Get your Progno HERE

Waiver Wire Wonders - Week 11 fantasysharks.com Tue 11/12/13 5:00 AM

We set aside our top category this week, as nothing stands out as being ‘Smokin' Hot.' There are plenty of players in all our other categories, many of which can be fantasy contributors right away. All the key positions have players worth looking at this week, including a pair of quarterbacks and a trio of tight ends. Several fantasy players are ready to emerge in the coming weeks, so grab them before they become hot commodities. We continue to be high on several running backs that are owned in most formats, but not all, and we'd pick them up over all the players listed this week. This list includes Rashad Jennings (Oakland), Andre Brown (New York Giants), Bernard Pierce (Baltimore) and Shane Vereen (New England). At the wide receiver position, those falling into that same category include Aaron Dobson (New England), Kenny Stills (New Orleans) and Jarrett Boykin (Green Bay). Fear not, if those players are gone, we've got something for everyone in this week's wonders! Solid Pickups TE John Carlson, Minnesota Last week we mentioned Carlson as a "deep" look, this week he graduates as one of this week's top waiver wire pickups. Starting in place of the injured Kyle Rudolph, Carlson caught seven passes for 98 yards and a touchdown against Washington. Rudolph was averaging close to 50 yards per game. Based on this first week without Rudolph, we look for Carlson to keep those numbers going as the starting Vikings' tight end. WR Rishard Matthews, Miami The loss of Brandon Gibson clears a spot for Matthews in the lineup, and Monday night against Tampa Bay had him being featured in the slot position. Ryan Tannehill looked in his direction early and often in the contest, as Matthews rang up close to 100 yards in the first half alone, including a touchdown pass. Matthews is worth owning as a low-end wide receiver in all formats. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tennessee With Jake Locker done for the season, the Titans will turn to Fitzpatrick for the duration of the season as their starter. To go along with 264 passing yards, he threw two touchdowns and no interceptions. Of more importance is Fitzpatrick's ability to run, as he also ran his way into the end zone this week. As the starter going forward, Fitzpatrick is worth owning as a backup fantasy quarterback. On the Radar RB Brian Leonard, Tampa Bay The Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to rip through running backs, with this week's starter Mike James leaving Monday night's game early with an apparent...

The Weekly Barometer - Week 10 fantasysharks.com Tue 11/5/13 9:06 AM

This week, I'm going to do something a little different. Ordinarily, I pick between two and four players at each position whose performance was far from expectations and give them lengthy analysis. However, Week 9 had a number of outlier performances that were absolutely ridiculous even by the volatile and unpredictable standards set forth by fantasy football. For that reason I'm going to broaden the scope to a much larger number of players with a shorter analysis for each. Every week of football has many surprising and unexpected occurrences, but there's a fine line between a normal week and a week where Nick Foles ties an all-time passing record in his ninth career start. There's too much to talk about, so let's forgo the 600-word preamble and get straight to it: Quarterbacks Nick Foles (Week 9 at Oakland: 406 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT, 14 yards rushing) So far this season, Foles has given us Sunday's record-tying masterpiece, an absolute stinker against Dallas, an excellent performance against Tampa, and a solid relief appearance against the Giants. He's batting 3-for-4, and he doesn't face a single top-10 pass defense the rest of the way. Matt Ryan owners may have found a late-season savior. Add and Start Tom Brady (Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh: 432 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT, -1 yard rushing) After all of the fantasy experts officially lost all confidence in him as an every-week starter and facing down the defense that's allowing the 4th-least points to QBs, Brady decided to go off for 33 points because he has trolling down to an art form. This is still only his second 20-point game of the season, and he scored in the single digits in three out of four games before Sunday. His remaining schedule is tough, culminating in two difficult road games in weeks 15 and 16. Sell High Case Keenum (Week 9 vs. Indianapolis: 350 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT 26 yards rushing) He's probably locked down the starting job the rest of the way since Houston's season is lost and they're going to want to take a good look at what they have in Keenum. There are too many more established options available to seriously consider a start in one-QB leagues, but he immediately enters the starting conversation in two-QB formats and should be owned in 12-team leagues. Add Jason Campbell (Week 9 vs. Baltimore: 262 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 20 yards rushing) Ever notice that anyone not named Brandon Weeden does really well under center for Cleveland? Crazy at it sounds, it would appear that...

Start/Bench - Week 9 fantasysharks.com Wed 10/30/13 9:00 AM

We have reached Week 9 and a second consecutive week that has six teams on a bye. That many players being unavailable for a given week can make things very interesting when deciding on roster and lineup decisions. Without further ado ... QUARTERBACKS STUDS Aaron Rodgers Drew Brees Peyton Manning * bye week * Matthew Stafford * bye week * Cam Newton Matt Ryan Tony Romo Robert Griffin III Philip Rivers Parting is Such Sweet Sorrow Michael Vick: The Chip Kelly offense seems stuck in neutral whether it's been Vick or Nick Foles running the ship. This latest hamstring issue will sideline Vick for a few weeks as well as hamper him upon his return. Health and availability issues make him too risky to be considered a must start once he does return. START Andrew Luck, IDIANAPOLIS at Houston: Luck posted four touchdowns with no interceptions in two games against the Texans last season but averaged only 193 passing yards. Three weeks ago, St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford threw touchdowns to guys named (Brian) Quick, (Lance) Kendricks and (Cory) Harkey against Houston. Luck will be just fine hooking up with (T.Y.) Hilton, (Darrius) Heyward-Bey and (Coby) Fleener. Andy Dalton, CINCINNATI at Miami: Is Dalton hot? Over his last three games he has completed 66 percent of his passes while averaging 344 yards per game with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. One more week like the previous three and Dalton will be moving on up. Terrelle Pryor, OAKLAND vs. Philadelphia: The Eagles are a top-10 team in allowing fantasy points to the quarterback position. Pryor will continue to post excellent rushing numbers (166 yards in his last two games) and can actually exploit a Philadelphia secondary that's allowing more than 300 yards per game through the air. Alex Smith, KANSAS CITY at Buffalo: Smith's two passing touchdowns last Sunday were his first since Week 4. Look for him to put up at least two more this week against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 20 this season. Start ‘The Game Manager' with confidence as the Chiefs roll over the Bills. Jake Locker, TENNESSEE at St. Louis: Locker is a dual threat that has the receiving weapons to hurt teams through the air as well as the athleticism to pull the ball down and churn out yards. The inclusion of running back Chris Johnson as a receiving threat (11 catches, 155 yards, 2 TD the last three games) really boosts Locker's value. St. Louis will bring just enough pressure to force Locker to run the ball a ...

Updated QB Efficiency Numbers -- Week 7 (Through MNF) rotoviz.com Fri 10/25/13 12:57 PM1 Comment

Expected Points and Fantasy Points Over Par (FPOP) are the measures I use to determine how much above or below average a player is on a per play basis. The idea is that every pass attempt on the field has an average fantasy point value associated with it, and then whether a QB produced more or fewer fantasy points with his attempts results in a positive or negative FPOP number. Some thoughts after 7 weeks.It's pretty crazy how far below average Tom Brady has been on a per attempt basis. Like really crazy. I know that people will say Brady's receivers have a lot to do with that, and I'm sure that's true, but I swear any conversation I get into on Twitter related to QBs ends up with "YEAH BUT FRANCHISE QBS MAKE EVERYONE BETTER"Alex Smith continues to pile up the opportunities that you're looking for in a late round pick. Smith also gets a run of QB-friendly defenses coming upIf you were going to fix the NYG passing game, what could you even do about it? Eli has more INTs than TDs and yet you can't say that they haven't spent resources on WRs. So what would you do to fix it?The numbers don't include Cam's Thursday night game but he continued last night his somewhat annoying habit of either winning or losing your fantasy week for you. I think I may write him a letter to know that he's hurting me.Most of Andrew Luck's excess production is coming running the ball.Carson Palmer is like Eli Manning without the promise of youth.. what's that? Oh Eli isn't young? Nevermind.Case Keenum's debut saw a positive FPOP day.Jake Locker is returning this weekend and has been positive in FPOP both as a ...

JL's Observation Deck - Week 8 fantasysharks.com Thu 10/24/13 7:00 AM

"The Observation Deck" was off the grid last week as I was nowhere to be found in the mainland United States. On my way there, though, I swung by Cowboys Stadium to watch the Dallas Cowboys live on Sunday Night Football against the Washington Redskins in Week 6. Do yourself a favor and get to a game there in the near future. It is quite the spectacle. It may not be as loud as the stadium you are used to (Arrowhead for me, but then again that is the loudest stadium in the NFL), but you will never feel less cramped being around 90,000 other people. Onto your fantasy team. It is quite possible these may be the last few days available for you to make a season-changing move by trade in your fantasy league. If that is the case, remember these three things: 1) Just because your team has a good record, does not mean you shouldn't consider making a move. Don't be the guy that gets offered an upgrade to your starting lineup, but responds with ‘well I am doing pretty well so far, and I don't think it would be smart to change anything.' This is not a real football team you are managing folks, these are players' stats. It is a game of scoring points, and the only thing that matters is acquiring whatever players will score the most points from this point forward. Last year at this point, Adrian Peterson only had two 100-yard rushing days in his seven contests with only three total touchdowns. Things change a lot quicker than you might realize. 2) The schedule is your friend. Almost halfway through the season, the data gathered on defenses has started to paint a more clear picture on which matchups you can take advantage of. Before the season starts in the NFL, it is a very bad idea to draft players based on their late-season schedule because a defenses' effectiveness changes a great deal from year to year. Carolina, Kansas City, Tennessee and New Orleans might all have looked like juicy matchups 10 or so weeks ago, but now after seven weeks of football we can much more accurately assess which teams and players to target moving forward if you need a boost. The Tennessee offense is the first team that comes to mind. There is not a player on this roster that is fantasy relevant that you likely could not get on the cheap right this minute. What is Chris Johnson's value right now? Probably not that high. He won't be facing the New York Jets, Seattle, Kansas City, San Francisco and Houston any longer. He does, however, draw St. Louis' porous run defense ...

Breaking the Huddle -- Week 7 fantasysharks.com Sat 10/19/13 9:06 AM13 Comments

In an ideal world, every lineup decision would be a stone cold lock. Easy enough my mother-in-law could pick our players. Peyton Manning, check. Adrian Peterson, of course. Dez Bryant, yep. Antonio Games, why not. In reality, injuries are mounting, position battles wage on, defenses are being defined as weather is constant thorn in our ass. Friday's Injury Report As we know many of our lineup decisions revolve around the Friday Injury Report. Each week we scour this memo searching for any last minute info to help sway our decision. As always we have three categories we are examining. The first is "Probable / full participation in practice." These are the players dealing with the everyday aches and pains of being a professional football player, but almost certain to take the field. Examining Friday's Injury Report we find; Zac Stacy, Greg Olsen, Willis McGahee, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson (we'll come back to this), Bilal Powell, Stevie Johnson, C.J. Spiller, Vernon Davis, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. Each should be downgraded slightly, and started as needed. The second category is Out, and Doubtful. These are players standing on the sidelines in street clothes collecting zero fantasy points. Players we must bench week seven includes; James Starks, Santonio Holmes, DeMarco Murray, David Wilson and Roddy White. Man was I wrong about Steven Jackson. I saw the second coming of Michael Turner plus receiving skills. But S-Jax is just a repeat of the 30-year-old version. He sits yet again with the never ending hamstring injury. The third and final category is "Questionable," and or "limited in practice" (dun, dun, daaaahhhh). Questionable is the silent killer synonymous with the dreaded Game Time Decision (GTD). Reading the tea leaves, here is my interpretation of what to expect with the Week 7's GTD. Mike Williams found himself listed as questionable, but oddly was full participation in practice. All systems appear go as a mid/lower WR3 in matchup facing the leaky Falcons secondary........... Calvin Johnson is a GTD after being limited in Friday's practice, but repping the Probable tag. Having practiced every day this week, he's a lineup lock. Although, he could be on a "limited snap count," Calvin does more with less than any other WR in the league............ The Packers are just playing games calling James Jones Questionable. He's not playing......... Jags WR Justin Blackmon has been dealing with a hamstring injury. He is a bit scary after not ...