You know the drill, looking for feedback on my keeper situation. Keeping six, standard flea-eligible league scoring/settings. Choices are:
Roethlisberger
Shonn Greene
Cedric Benson
Willis McGahee
Tony Gonzalez
Denarius Moore
Brandon Marshall
Dwayne Bowe
Jeremy Maclin
Michael Crabtree
Owen Daniels
Pretty messy group, lot of interchangeable risk/reward ratios. Bowe looks like a lock, and Marshall is close to it, although he is certainly a strong contender for 'The Biggest Ticking Time Bomb' in the League'. Crabtree finished strong, but I'm skeptical the additions of Manningham and Moss will help at all in an offense that throws so little, Maclin will continue to be the #1A receiver in Philly, Denarius flashed big potential, Greene (very) quietly racked up 1200 total yards and the Jets could be going back to a run-heavy philosophy, McGahee is 'the guy' for now in Denver, Roethlisberger topped 4K yards (even though he only threw for 3 or more TDs in a game twice all season), and the ageless Gonzo somehow finished as the No. 4 fantasy TE in his age 36 campaign. So, what do I do?
Okay, so yesterday I removed Jeremy Maclin from my keeper group and added Denarius Moore. That is a short-sighted move, but I realized yesterday that.. I'm just not that high on Maclin's potential. Sure, he could return to 2010 form, where he scored 10 TDs as the Eagles '#1A' receiver. But DeSean could also put up an insane year to force the Eagles to give him the big deal he wants. Plus, I still haven't forgotten about Maclin's bizarre blood disorder that slowed him out of the gate last year, very strange. My original presumption was that Maclin offered enough stability to offset Moore's upside, which pretty likely surpasses Maclin's; I am not seeing much in the way of certainty from Maclin, presently. So, Roethlisberger/S. Greene/D. Bowe/Marshall/Santonio Holmes/D. Moore, leaving Willis McGahee, Jeremy Maclin, and Michael Crabtree to get redrafted. Somebody tell me I'm an idiot, and why.
You will be better off keeping Maclin. he will be a more consistent receiver for you. Moore will have some big games, but he will also have games where he is nonexistent.
I agree, Maclin may have the inside track on consistency. But I am already locked into keeping Marshall and Bowe, and I'm strangely drawn to Holmes, think he's gonna get targeted a ton. So we're talking about a guy who currently projects as my WR4. Doesn't it make more sense to roll the dice on a guy who, if things go somewhat according to plan, will be depth? Moore's numbers suggest he was the #1 deep threat in the league last year.
Why? Just about everything that could have gone wrong on Holmes last year short of injury did, his QB rated as the most ineffective 16-game starter in the league, and he still scored eight times. Guy is a jerk-off and his offense is iffy, but he can play, and since they're stuck with him because of his contract, they'll try to keep him happy.
Heh, Eric Decker still got in the endzone with fair regularity once Tebow took over, and Demaryius Thomas was the #1 receiver in fantasy to close out the season with Tebow throwing him the ball. I won't pretend that the looming possibility of Tebow doesn't give me some pause over potentially owning Santonio, but I believe his talent is enough to keep him fantasy relevant. Besides, if Tebow supplants Sanchez, there's a good chance Santonio will have been both vocal and instrumental in the change, which could result in him (gasp) actually playing hard for his new QB. I know, that's a lot of tea leaf reading, but I think ya gotta give a guy who could have elite talent the benefit of the doubt.
Looking at your team, the biggest issue is your lack of draft picks. With your current pick situation, you need to keep a QB, 2 RB, and 3 WR to have a chance at competing. I would keep Roethlisberger, Greene, McGahee, Bowe, Maclin, and Marshall. Moore may be able to bring in a second or third round pick. Gonzalez and daniels could net you 3rd or 4th round picks.
My team will compete, I'll hit the waiver and trade wires plenty hard. Unfortunately, it's a very unforgiving play-off setup: 15-game regular season, championship in week 16. Cracking the top-two will be pretty rough. At present, I would go with either the group you listed, or with replacing McGahee with Holmes, just depends on how the off-season unfolds. Bowe/Marshall will be some numbers. You're right though, draft is going to be just as tough.
that is a mess....i honestly think i'd go Roethlisberger, Gonzo, Moore, Marshall, Bowe, Maclin
Sure keeping Gonzo is a risk, but it it anymore of a risk than keeping Crabtree or Shonn Greene?
Ideally, you'd like to keep a RB...but i don't know that you won't be able to find SOMETHING better than Benson/Greene/McGahee. If you kept one of them at this point, i'd have to say McGahee based on current situation alone.
Lol yeah, this is horrendous carnage. I agree on Maclin, he might make too much sense, especially in this group. Greene and McGahee's fates pretty much rest in the outcome of the draft - and a possible trade with Carolina, in Willis' case. Moore is just so risky! Flashed like crazy, but couldn't stay healthy, and stuck on the hyper-turbulent Raider roster.
Nobody's done much with updating their keepers yet, but I'd imagine RB depth will be hit harder than WR depth. Of course, I play in a 1 RB/2 WR/1 flex, so maybe stockpiling the fantasy points regardless of position is the way to go. Glad somebody's got my back on Roethlisberger, he's still a low-end QB1 in fantasy points PER GAME, even if he's a lock to miss a couple/be injury-crippled in another couple. I can't bring myself to keep Crabtree, just too much that could go horribly wrong. I have somehow convinced myself that Shonn Greene could pile up some cheap yards if Tebowmania takes over - worked for McGahee. I do feel pretty good about Bowe/Marshall though, I think they're both darkhorse WR1 types. Thanks for the feedback Drop.
Wow, don't know how I missed this, but I also have Santonio Holmes, so can throw his name into that congested glut of candidates. I don't disagree on the Gonzo argument in any significant way, but I just don't think I can get there. Would rather roll the dice late on a youngster than commit what is essentially a sixth-round pick to the NFL equivalent of a senior citizen.
So I'm locked into Roethlisberger, Bowe, and Marshall. Last three spots are between Maclin, the newly-added Holmes, Greene, McGahee. Moore would be included, but I'm not willing to keep more than four receivers, and Maclin/Holmes would both be kept before him. So, who's the odd man out between these four? Holmes had a terrible year and still scored 8 TDs..
interesting, particularly the Gonzalez pick. Can I really bank on a TE who is going to be 37 years old? Gonzo is the best receiving TE ever, by far, but he's also waaaay out into uncharted waters, at this point, which makes me nervous. You don't think Roethlisberger would be a more stable pick, since a lot of QBs will be kept (particularly all the ones that are better than him)? I like the Moore pick though, that's gutsy.
BaseNoteFri 3/23/12 7:55 PM
You know the drill, looking for feedback on my keeper situation. Keeping six, standard flea-eligible league scoring/settings. Choices are:
Roethlisberger
Shonn Greene
Cedric Benson
Willis McGahee
Tony Gonzalez
Denarius Moore
Brandon Marshall
Dwayne Bowe
Jeremy Maclin
Michael Crabtree
Owen Daniels
Pretty messy group, lot of interchangeable risk/reward ratios. Bowe looks like a lock, and Marshall is close to it, although he is certainly a strong contender for 'The Biggest Ticking Time Bomb' in the League'. Crabtree finished strong, but I'm skeptical the additions of Manningham and Moss will help at all in an offense that throws so little, Maclin will continue to be the #1A receiver in Philly, Denarius flashed big potential, Greene (very) quietly racked up 1200 total yards and the Jets could be going back to a run-heavy philosophy, McGahee is 'the guy' for now in Denver, Roethlisberger topped 4K yards (even though he only threw for 3 or more TDs in a game twice all season), and the ageless Gonzo somehow finished as the No. 4 fantasy TE in his age 36 campaign. So, what do I do?
BaseNoteTue 4/24/12 9:03 AM
Okay, so yesterday I removed Jeremy Maclin from my keeper group and added Denarius Moore. That is a short-sighted move, but I realized yesterday that.. I'm just not that high on Maclin's potential. Sure, he could return to 2010 form, where he scored 10 TDs as the Eagles '#1A' receiver. But DeSean could also put up an insane year to force the Eagles to give him the big deal he wants. Plus, I still haven't forgotten about Maclin's bizarre blood disorder that slowed him out of the gate last year, very strange. My original presumption was that Maclin offered enough stability to offset Moore's upside, which pretty likely surpasses Maclin's; I am not seeing much in the way of certainty from Maclin, presently. So, Roethlisberger/S. Greene/D. Bowe/Marshall/Santonio Holmes/D. Moore, leaving Willis McGahee, Jeremy Maclin, and Michael Crabtree to get redrafted. Somebody tell me I'm an idiot, and why.
rangerdaveTue 4/24/12 10:12 AM
You will be better off keeping Maclin. he will be a more consistent receiver for you. Moore will have some big games, but he will also have games where he is nonexistent.
BaseNoteWed 4/25/12 2:10 PM
I agree, Maclin may have the inside track on consistency. But I am already locked into keeping Marshall and Bowe, and I'm strangely drawn to Holmes, think he's gonna get targeted a ton. So we're talking about a guy who currently projects as my WR4. Doesn't it make more sense to roll the dice on a guy who, if things go somewhat according to plan, will be depth? Moore's numbers suggest he was the #1 deep threat in the league last year.
rangerdaveWed 4/25/12 2:22 PM
I would definitely keep Maclin or Moore over Holmes.
BaseNoteWed 4/25/12 2:33 PM
Why? Just about everything that could have gone wrong on Holmes last year short of injury did, his QB rated as the most ineffective 16-game starter in the league, and he still scored eight times. Guy is a jerk-off and his offense is iffy, but he can play, and since they're stuck with him because of his contract, they'll try to keep him happy.
rangerdaveWed 4/25/12 3:03 PM
And when Tebow is at QB?
BaseNoteWed 4/25/12 3:12 PM
Heh, Eric Decker still got in the endzone with fair regularity once Tebow took over, and Demaryius Thomas was the #1 receiver in fantasy to close out the season with Tebow throwing him the ball. I won't pretend that the looming possibility of Tebow doesn't give me some pause over potentially owning Santonio, but I believe his talent is enough to keep him fantasy relevant. Besides, if Tebow supplants Sanchez, there's a good chance Santonio will have been both vocal and instrumental in the change, which could result in him (gasp) actually playing hard for his new QB. I know, that's a lot of tea leaf reading, but I think ya gotta give a guy who could have elite talent the benefit of the doubt.
rangerdaveThu 3/29/12 4:29 PM
Looking at your team, the biggest issue is your lack of draft picks. With your current pick situation, you need to keep a QB, 2 RB, and 3 WR to have a chance at competing. I would keep Roethlisberger, Greene, McGahee, Bowe, Maclin, and Marshall. Moore may be able to bring in a second or third round pick. Gonzalez and daniels could net you 3rd or 4th round picks.
BaseNoteThu 3/29/12 6:55 PM
My team will compete, I'll hit the waiver and trade wires plenty hard. Unfortunately, it's a very unforgiving play-off setup: 15-game regular season, championship in week 16. Cracking the top-two will be pretty rough. At present, I would go with either the group you listed, or with replacing McGahee with Holmes, just depends on how the off-season unfolds. Bowe/Marshall will be some numbers. You're right though, draft is going to be just as tough.
DropWed 3/28/12 1:17 PM
that is a mess....i honestly think i'd go Roethlisberger, Gonzo, Moore, Marshall, Bowe, Maclin
Sure keeping Gonzo is a risk, but it it anymore of a risk than keeping Crabtree or Shonn Greene?
Ideally, you'd like to keep a RB...but i don't know that you won't be able to find SOMETHING better than Benson/Greene/McGahee. If you kept one of them at this point, i'd have to say McGahee based on current situation alone.
BaseNoteThu 3/29/12 12:00 PM
Lol yeah, this is horrendous carnage. I agree on Maclin, he might make too much sense, especially in this group. Greene and McGahee's fates pretty much rest in the outcome of the draft - and a possible trade with Carolina, in Willis' case. Moore is just so risky! Flashed like crazy, but couldn't stay healthy, and stuck on the hyper-turbulent Raider roster.
Nobody's done much with updating their keepers yet, but I'd imagine RB depth will be hit harder than WR depth. Of course, I play in a 1 RB/2 WR/1 flex, so maybe stockpiling the fantasy points regardless of position is the way to go. Glad somebody's got my back on Roethlisberger, he's still a low-end QB1 in fantasy points PER GAME, even if he's a lock to miss a couple/be injury-crippled in another couple. I can't bring myself to keep Crabtree, just too much that could go horribly wrong. I have somehow convinced myself that Shonn Greene could pile up some cheap yards if Tebowmania takes over - worked for McGahee. I do feel pretty good about Bowe/Marshall though, I think they're both darkhorse WR1 types. Thanks for the feedback Drop.
BaseNoteThu 3/29/12 12:22 PM
Wow, don't know how I missed this, but I also have Santonio Holmes, so can throw his name into that congested glut of candidates. I don't disagree on the Gonzo argument in any significant way, but I just don't think I can get there. Would rather roll the dice late on a youngster than commit what is essentially a sixth-round pick to the NFL equivalent of a senior citizen.
So I'm locked into Roethlisberger, Bowe, and Marshall. Last three spots are between Maclin, the newly-added Holmes, Greene, McGahee. Moore would be included, but I'm not willing to keep more than four receivers, and Maclin/Holmes would both be kept before him. So, who's the odd man out between these four? Holmes had a terrible year and still scored 8 TDs..
Sharma19Sun 3/25/12 9:00 PM
Greene, Gonzalez, Moore, Marshall, Bowe, Maclin,
BaseNoteMon 3/26/12 12:39 PM
interesting, particularly the Gonzalez pick. Can I really bank on a TE who is going to be 37 years old? Gonzo is the best receiving TE ever, by far, but he's also waaaay out into uncharted waters, at this point, which makes me nervous. You don't think Roethlisberger would be a more stable pick, since a lot of QBs will be kept (particularly all the ones that are better than him)? I like the Moore pick though, that's gutsy.
Sharma19Wed 3/28/12 1:17 PM
Gonzo is good for another 2 years i'd say... please help me here fleaflicker.com