Sitting here watching pre-season football, alittle bored, lol.
Decided to be nerdy & crunch some numbers.
I compiled data from the last 2 years of my Dynasty leagues & found something interesting stats. This is data from 33 dynasty leagues over 2 seasons (some only 1 season). 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, & 20 team leagues. (side note: the winner of the consolation round wins the 1st pick in my dynasty leagues).
- the highest scoring team for the season only finishes in 1st place in the Regular Season Standings 59.6% of the time.
- the highest scoring team only wins the championship 26.9% of the time.
- the first place team only wins the championship 25% of the time.
- the 2nd place team wins the championship 15% of the times.
- the 3rd place team wins the championship 23% of the time.
- the 4th place or worst teams win the championship 36.5% of the time.
- the team with the highest ranking entering the Consolation playoff round only wins the 1st pick 21% of the time.
- the team that finishes in last place only wins the 1st pick 4.7% of the time.
Summaries:
You may finish as the highest scoring team, but there's almost a 75% chance you won't win the ship.
You may finish 1st place in the standings, but there's a 75% chance you won't win the ship.
It seems better to finish mid-pack in the Consolation round.
It seems better to finish 3rd or 4th than 2nd - which feels counterintuitive, but the numbers don't lie.
Finally, don't tank - it's REALLY not in your best interest, lol.
DarthSkippySat 8/13/22 11:18 PM
Sitting here watching pre-season football, alittle bored, lol.
Decided to be nerdy & crunch some numbers.
I compiled data from the last 2 years of my Dynasty leagues & found something interesting stats. This is data from 33 dynasty leagues over 2 seasons (some only 1 season). 12, 14, 15, 16, 18, & 20 team leagues. (side note: the winner of the consolation round wins the 1st pick in my dynasty leagues).
- the highest scoring team for the season only finishes in 1st place in the Regular Season Standings 59.6% of the time.
- the highest scoring team only wins the championship 26.9% of the time.
- the first place team only wins the championship 25% of the time.
- the 2nd place team wins the championship 15% of the times.
- the 3rd place team wins the championship 23% of the time.
- the 4th place or worst teams win the championship 36.5% of the time.
- the team with the highest ranking entering the Consolation playoff round only wins the 1st pick 21% of the time.
- the team that finishes in last place only wins the 1st pick 4.7% of the time.
Summaries:
You may finish as the highest scoring team, but there's almost a 75% chance you won't win the ship.
You may finish 1st place in the standings, but there's a 75% chance you won't win the ship.
It seems better to finish mid-pack in the Consolation round.
It seems better to finish 3rd or 4th than 2nd - which feels counterintuitive, but the numbers don't lie.
Finally, don't tank - it's REALLY not in your best interest, lol.
noitankcapflowSun 8/14/22 10:56 AM
not alway tge case for cutthroat league 4th place won my ;league
MyFFBonlyMon 8/15/22 11:59 AM
@oilslickers - Please let @DarthSkippy post unmolested
noitankcapflowMon 8/15/22 12:02 PM
oh you thinbk your not in wolfpack nation league
luvdemstillersMon 8/22/22 10:20 PM
Thanks for posting finishes, interesting. Just started dynasty this year on a random invite.
Looks like a couple of you know each other. Don't get the Darth Skippy/oilslickers thing.