RotoViz wrote a guest post at The Sports Post, which you can check out here: Four Fantasy Football Tips for Your Next Draft -- The Sports Post. From that article: The second year Giants running back is the subject of a lot of hand wringing among fantasy experts this year because they really don't know what to expect out of him. I'm looking at Wilson as if he's going to be pretty similar to C.J. Spiller in 2012. Both guys have a lot of explosiveness and can get a lot of yards on a small number of carries. But if you recall, Spiller owners were often frustrated that he didn't get on the field more last year. That's what it's going to be like owning Wilson this year. You might be frustrated when he doesn't get a lot of carries, but Wilson is so talented that he should produce fantasy points when he does touch the ball. Right now you have to take Wilson as about the 20th running back in drafts, which I think offers a little value. I don't think he's likely to finish lower than that this year, and he could finish much higher. The Giants usually produce starting level fantasy running backs and David Wilson is more talented than anybody they've had there in recent years. But don't say I didn't warn you ahead of time about the frustration involved in owning him. The thoughts above probably fit more in the range of speculation than they do analysis. Shawn Siegele has raised some important reasons to be concerned about David Wilson. I'll also admit that if both Wilson and DeMarco Murray are still on the board, you would be passing up a bunch of nearly certain touches to take Wilson over Murray. But I ...

Draft night may seem like a straight forward night that has a simple complexion. On the surface, it does seem simple enough, yet it decides the future of your season. The key to a great draft is to have a plan, expect the unexpected, and don't make boneheaded rookie mistakes. Whether you are a six-time champ, or a first-time player, these mistakes can be made by anyone. Here are five common mistakes that can your fantasy football season on draft night. 1 - Know Your Draft Date - This should go without saying, but you really need to show up for your draft. The demise of many teams is the dreaded "autopick." The computer can't tell if you're weak at a certain position. It can only tell what positions you have on your roster. Autopick will choose the next best player based on the website's rankings for the position you need to fill. You could very easily be stuck with Aaron Rodgers in the first round and Dez Bryant in the second round. You could find that the computer didn't take a running back until the third round. There are no running backs that exist in the third round that can be a reliable RB1. A potential roster headlined by a RB1 of David Wilson or DeMarco Murray will not win you any league. This isn't the only problem with autopick, either. Your bench could consist of a backup kicker or three quarterbacks. The dreaded autopick screws you out of the chance of having the next Doug Martin or Randall Cobb on your roster before he becomes a hot commodity. If you cannot make your draft, the least you could do is set your own rankings and positional limits at each position so you don't end up drafting two kickers. 2 - Have a Game Plan, but Don't Live and Die by It - It is always a great idea to have a plan of who you want to grab in the draft. It is great to know who you should stay away from and what position you want in a certain round. The mistake many people make with having a game plan is sticking to it too excessively. The draft is the most unpredictable thing about fantasy football. Your co-worker Steve could draft the guy you wanted the pick before you, or Adrian Peterson falls into your lap at the third spot. There isn't any way of knowing who Steve was going to pick, and there was no way of knowing Peterson was going to fall to you at three. But he did. Being able to adjust your plan when the unexpected happens is one of the keys to being a great drafter and overall fantasy player. It is always great to prepare, just don't ...

Have you ever been in the middle of a draft completely torn between two players you have ranked nearly identical, like Arian Foster vs. Adrian Peterson? These are the decisions we put under a microscope all season just to see if we made the right choice. As we wrapped up our most recent league draft, here are some of the ball busting choices I observed in an article I like to call "Vs." If you read my article on Adrian Peterson vs. Arian Foster, you know I rate players largely based on five factors: talent, coaching staff, team talent, offensive line and/or injury prone status (typically weighted in that order). If these five factors don't solve my quandary, as a tie breaker I'll turn to any number of theories, including strength of schedule, contract year, postseason weather, mobile quarterback, third-year wide receiver, 30-year-old running back, red zone targets and so on. Here is my head-to-head comparison of players I found to be rated nearly identical. Reggie Bush vs. David Wilson As stated, with the first overall pick I took Arian Foster (bring on the haters). From the mock drafts I know running backs are going to fly off the shelves faster than pork rinds at a NASCAR race. Ergo, my draft plan was obvious. I had to take the best available running back at pick 2.12. When the decision came, there were two names that clearly stood out in my mind: Reggie Bush Vs. David Wilson. Talent -- Reggie Bush is still amongst the most talented players in the game, clear and away better than incumbents Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell. His ability to make defenders miss, especially in the open field, is lethal. While in Miami, Bush proved he can be an every down running back, capable of running between the tackles when necessary. With that said, in my humble opinion David Wilson has Pro Bowl caliber talent. A home run threat on any given run, Wilson has shown his versatility as a pass catcher and a between-the-tackles runner. The lone knock on Wilson's talent last season was pass blocking. This equates to film study and knowledge, the behind-the-scenes information we aren't provided until the players hit the field in preseason. We should note that pass blocking is a common problem amongst rookies, but typically improves when a second-year running back is given a full offseason to work with the first-string offense. Simply based on raw talent, I'm giving Wilson the slightest of edge. (Wilson 1, Bush 0) Team Talent (including defenses) -- Both Bush and ...

Below are two players in the top 25 that others seem to love more than I do, and two players outside the top 25 that I have a man crush on. (ADP = Average Draft Position) Overvalued Alfred Morris, ADP of 11: Now I have Morris in a keeper league and I am going to exchange my third-round pick for him without any problems. But his average draft position is between the 10th and 12th pick in current mock drafts; I have been seeing him selected as high as seventh overall. Now I think your first two picks need to be sure winners, not question marks. Without the read option as a Washington Redskins staple, how can we project for this kid to dominate? And why do we suddenly trust coach Mike Shanahan again? He is less stable at running back than any other coach. I am not going to say that he does not get the ball 300 times, but it seems like a Shonn Greene double-feature might be in the making. Chris Johnson, ADP of 23: Are you seriously going to take that chance? He has way too much downside for your second pick in any draft. People keep living the dream that he is suddenly going to get that step back and carry the load. He is not that guy. He had his success similar to Jamaal Charles when he slaughtered the league by storm before teams started to game plan for him. I would put Charles in the same boat, but I have a feeling that coach Andy Reid is going to find a way to get Charles going. Others I don't love at their current ADP: Trent Richardson (10), Demaryius Thomas (24), Stevan Ridley (21), Steven Jackson (13). Undervalued Ryan Mathews, ADP of 51: I know the stat sheets ... and I know you think he is fragile. However, there were some games last year where this kid was electric and started to take over the game. He has received tweets from fans hoping he would die. And I say if he dies he is coming back to life as a nightmare for defenses in an up tempo Mike McCoy offense that can use Mathews in the ‘flats' as a receiver and on the ground as slippery ‘I out flanked you' running back. Willis McGahee was dominant under McCoy's scheme, and in 2011 the Denver Broncos led the league in rushing. Watch out for this kid this year! Dwayne Bowe, ADP of 44: I have heard his talk this year that he is going to lead the league in touchdowns and receptions. I am not getting on that train, but he is a big and dominant receiver that can take over the game. Bowe is going to do well with an offensive minded coach and an upgrade at quarterback. Kansas City is ...

1 Star -- Look Elsewhere 2 Star -- Handcuff/Desperation pick 3 Star -- A Serviceable Starter 4 Star -- Solid Starter you can count on every week 5 Star -- Studs, should be in the Top 10 at the end of the year Dallas -- DeMarco Murray/Joseph Randle/Phillip Tanner/Lance Dunbar Everything out of the Cowboys camp regarding Murray has been all positive, including Murray stating every game this season. What's important is that his hamstring is at full strength. I'm hoping in my leagues more people are scared to draft him early because of his injury history. Murray is a beast, though, and completely changes the Cowboys offense when he is on the field. He's a surprisingly quick and vicious runner, although one of the problems I have going forward with him is the overall team inconsistency. It's hard to tell when they will show up each week. Murray is worth a risk as a late second-to-third-round pick in drafts and should have a good season ahead of him. My second (although biggest) cause for concern is that Murray has missed nine games in his two NFL seasons, making rookie Joseph Randle a viable handcuff this year. If Murray stays healthy he should find himself within the top 15 running backs this year. The backfield is rounded out with Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar, who should not be considered at all unless you are staring at an empty slot in your lineup because of bye weeks and injuries. Murray -- 3.50 Stars; Randle -- 2 Stars; Tanner -- 1 Star; Dunbar -- 1 Star New York Giants -- David Wilson/Andre Brown The departure of Ahmad Bradshaw has left a nice void in the Giants backfield with one of the above two guys more than welcoming the opportunity to fill it. There are a few whispers out there saying that Andre Brown will be the starter this year but I will have to disagree with them. David Wilson will come into the season as the starter and it will be his job to lose. Wilson is definitely the more explosive player; this kid has the drive and the talent to be one of the greats (he said so himself!). He's been working this offseason on his ball handling and pass blocking skills and it looks like he has improved in both areas considerably. That's not to say Brown will not be worth anything this year as he figures to be the team's goal line back. Throughout the season I'll wager the breakdown of carries going 70-30, with the lion's share going to David Wilson. At this point I'd consider drafting Wilson very early, and if the opportunity arises ...

Photo by Football Schedule A couple weeks back in Part I of this series (before the RotoViz dynasty startup took over my life), I took a look at what my running back model thinks of the players in the Giant's backfield as a proxy for the "talent" portion of the "talent + opportunity" equation that we all know for projecting fantasy success. While it's pretty clear that David Wilson is the guy to own from a dynasty perspective, I think it's murky from a redraft perspective.  Looking at Tom Coughlin's historical RB usage patterns can give us a good idea of what kind of opportunity Wilson and Brown might get, and how much value that will translate to this year. ...

Written by Rich ArleoEdited by Marc Caviglia

Some owners are going head over heels for David Wilson. Is it justified?

The second installment of our ADP debates will feature two young running backs. Fellow writer Jaron Foster and I will debate the merits of Patriots running back Stevan Ridley and the Giants' David Wilson.  February's data has Wilson and Ridley being drafted twelfth and thirteenth among running backs, respectively.  Hopefully if you find yourself on the [...]

At this point in the offseason, fantasy insight is scarce. However, there are already situations unfolding that will influence your 2013 fantasy draft. If you aren't planning your next championship, you're already falling behind. New York Giants RB After repeated foot issues, the Giants made the move to release long time running back Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw's previous contract means he would have made $6.25 million this season. He has already hinted that he might be re-signed by the Giants to an updated contract, which makes sense considering his good standing with the team. However, for the time being, 2012 first-round draft pick David Wilson is the projected starter. In limited action last season, Wilson flashed eye-popping elusiveness and breakaway speed. His major downfall was a lack of pass blocking skills, a commonality amongst many rookie running backs. Should the Giants move on from Bradshaw, Wilson's fantasy value would skyrocket. Even if Bradshaw re-signs, Wilson is in store for a much larger role in 2013. Miami Dolphins RB With the Dolphins officially in the rebuilding process, veteran Reggie Bush has a 95-percent chance of wearing another team's jersey next season. Back in 2011, Daniel Thomas was projected to be the starter as the team spent a second-round pick on him. However that was the old regime, and Thomas hasn't panned out as an elite ball carrier after being given ample opportunity last season. Oddly reminiscent of Shonn Greene, Thomas is a plodder who fails to run with the power his 233-pound frame would suggest. Instead, we should be eyeing Lamar Miller. In limited action last season, Miller proved to be the more talented of the two, but fell victim to the same pass blocking limitations as fellow rookie David Wilson. On the upside, both general manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Joe Philbin cited Miller as a player to watch. Free Agent WRs This year we find three names being mentioned when discussing the topic of free agent wide receivers - Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings and Dwayne Bowe. Of the three, I'm most curious of where Bowe will land. Standing 6-foot-2 and 221 pounds, Bowe is a physical specimen meeting all the requirements of a prototypical NFL wide receiver. He also has great hands, sufficient speed, limited injuries, and is only 28 years of age. If he can produce WR1 numbers with Matt Cassel, think what he could do with Philip Rivers, or, heaven forbid, Tom Brady. The other wide receiver of intrigue is a guy no one ...