Camp Battles and Questions Abound for New Look Rams fantasyfootballwarehou... Tue 7/30/13 12:00 PM

As the 2013 season rolls around, there are a lot of questions in St. Louis about the transformation of the offense. With the top receiving options gone, and Steven Jackson taking his services to Atlanta, the offense is wide open to some new faces. FFW Guest Writer and St. Louis-area resident Gene Glass helps to sort them out as training camp opens for the Rams.

To Draft or Not to Draft: Steven Jackson fantasysharks.com Tue 7/30/13 9:00 AM

You've all said it. "Imagine what Steven Jackson could do if he wasn't playing for the St. Louis Rams." It's always been a fantasy owner's fantasy to see what he could do in a high-octane offense and not have to face eight men in the box on almost every down. Well, now he has his chance in Atlanta. But, what do you make of the once surefire first-rounder? PRO: Atlanta's offense is insane. Michael Turner wasn't great for the Falcons last year, but he was still a very viable fantasy option. Jackson gives Atlanta the ability to not only run between the tackles, but check down to a primary running back who might actually be a threat in the passing game. CON: Atlanta is a pass-first offense. Matt Ryan has targets like Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and even Harry Douglas to get the ball downfield, and they didn't just pay Ryan to turn around and hand the ball off. Turner only got 15 or more carries six times and only 223 on the season in 2012. Jacquizz Rodgers was an excellent third down back last year and it's likely you'll still see quite a bit of the other Oregon State product again in 2013. PRO: Jackson is the feature back for a legitimate contender for the first time in his career. The offense he is in will almost guarantee that he gets more red zone touches than he could ever dream of in St. Louis. The Falcons might get into the red zone more often than the Rams cross midfield this year. CON: The Falcons are going to make the playoffs. There are no certainties in the NFL, but you can almost pencil Atlanta into the playoffs this season. If Atlanta gets out to a big lead in their division, you can bet they'll give their stars at least some rest. If and when they do this, it will likely be during your fantasy playoffs. PRO: Jackson gets a huge upgrade at offensive line. Atlanta's offensive line may only be middle-of-the-pack, but they're definitely better than what St. Louis was trotting out there every week. Again, the Falcons will see a lot more nickel coverages, which will also open up some holes for Jackson. CON: Jackson's health is always a concern. It seems like Jackson has missed more games than he actually has, but he's only been out of two contests in the last four years. But he is always dinged up. In the last four years, he's been on the injury report 25 times. He's been listed as questionable 13 times. He just turned 30 years old, and it seems like he is literally bending but not breaking. OVERALL ANALYSIS: At full ...

A Conversation with (Fake) Steven Jackson fantasysharks.com Fri 7/26/13 9:06 AM

Steven Jackson, you have vexed me for long enough. Yeah, you heard that right. He's made me second-guess myself one too many times. If he was a woman and we'd been on a first date, I don't think he would've given me reason enough to ask him on a second, you know? That's how mixed his signals are. Are you aware of that scene in "Hitch" when Will Smith tells the men of America they're supposed to lean in 90 percent for a kiss and let the women meet them the other 10 percent? Well, Jackson is 3-percent short. Not for a kiss. Let's not take this analogy too far. I mean for me to have the guts to lean in and take you at the start of the second round in this year's draft. So here's what he's going to do for me: he's going to have a conversation with me. Help me work through my commitment issues. I really want to take him at the start of the second round; I do. Especially if I get someone like Calvin Johnson at the first-round turn and I need a sure-thing runner heading into the third. But he's going to have to talk me into it. Can he do that? He can? Great. Thanks. DG: I have some issues with drafting you as early as the start of the second round this year, holographic Jackson of my mind. I know a lot of experts who are that high on you this year, but I have my doubts. SJ: Doubts? Doubts?! What kind of doubts are we talking about here, little man? DG: Well, and I don't want to put this the wrong way ... you're a great guy and all, and I really dig the whole dreadlocks thing -- you manage to pull it off without looking like Ricky Williams' Rastafarian little brother -- but you're kind of old. Not for life, I mean. But you're old for a running back. Thirty is the new 40 for backs, man. SJ: Thirty's not old at all. Guess you don't know much about football history. You mentioned Ricky Williams, before. My dude rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2009, and he was over 30. DG: That's fair, but I'm looking for more than just 1,000 yards out of you if I'm taking you in the early second round. And since you're bringing up history, ever hear of Shaun Alexander? In 2005, his 28-year-old season, he rushed for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns. At 30 -- same team, same dude -- Alexander rushed for 716 yards and four touchdowns. SJ: Whatever, man. I'm no Alexander. What about Marcus Allen? Or Fred Taylor? Or Tiki Barber? Or Barry Sanders? Or Walter Payton? DG: Yeah, but what about Ahman Green? Or Thurman Thomas? Or Edgerrin James? Or Earl Campbell? Or Eric ...

How 30-Somethings Can Lead You to a Fantasy Championship fantasysharks.com Fri 7/26/13 1:06 AM

It's that time of year again when fantasy managers are scouring all the magazine racks and fantasy football websites looking to get any kind of competitive advantage against their leaguemates. Every year, it seems, I read a lot about why I should avoid players of advanced age -- the big, bright flashing sign reading "Age 30 or Over: BEWARE!" I always imagine that sign posted firmly just feet from the proverbial "cliff" that all of these players inevitably fall off. Truthfully, I've never really had issues with older players dashing my championship hopes due to injury or losing a step or less usage. Last season, it was, in fact, injuries to younger players like LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew and Pierre Garcon that derailed my season. So this year, I'm doing an experiment. I'm going to draft an entire team of veteran players from this list and see how they fare against their contemporaries drafted by my opponents. Keep in mind, this article is intended for those who play in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Indulge me for a few minutes by reading on. I think I may change your mind on a few "players of a certain age." Quarterback Peyton Manning (Age 37), Denver Fears about Manning's four neck surgeries and a full season away from the field proved largely unfounded, as the former Indianapolis Colts' quarterback racked up more than 4,600 passing yards, 37 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions on his way to taking the Broncos to the AFC Divisional Playoffs, where a few late-game lame duck throws kept them from the AFC Championship Game, and possibly a Super Bowl berth. In 2013, not only does Manning have a full season under his belt with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, but now he gets to toss the pigskin to some guy named Wes Welker. He's the guy that caught 118 passes in New England last season and nabbed 100-plus receptions in five of the last six years (he had 86 catches in 2010 before he tore his ACL and MCL in the final game of the regular season -- see my write-up of Welker below). This is the best trio of wide receivers Manning has ever played with, and this offense should cut through AFC West defenses like a hot knife through butter. The Broncos also have a soft schedule, a trio of good running backs to keep defenses honest, and have improved their offensive line to protect Manning. The Broncos can expect big returns on their investments in Manning and Welker with a trip to the Super Bowl in February, 2014. Even if he doesn't lead ...

Draft Strategy: RB3 fantasysharks.com Thu 7/18/13 6:00 AM1 Comment

Don't let the title of this article fool you, it is not about Robert Griffin III, or a strategy for picking your third running back (boring!). It does, however, discuss the benefits of using your first three picks on running backs this year. That's right, three, in a row, each on a running back. Just making sure we are clear. As the NFL seemingly continues to become more and more of a passing league, it seems counterintuitive to put so much of your early resources into the running back position. I would argue that this is precisely why you want to come out of the tunnel and load up on starting running backs. There are far too many good wide receivers and quarterbacks available in the later rounds to waste your early picks on them. The viable running back pool dries up quickly after the third round. Let's look at the running back side to get started. I am continually shocked at the quality of guys you can end up with (including wide receivers, quarterback and tight end) by employing this strategy. From a top-3 draft position, you may draft the likes of: · Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson and Frank Gore or ... · Arian Foster, Steven Jackson and Maurice Jones-Drew or ... · Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte and Darren McFadden Even at the back end of the first round (8-10), you can still end up with strength at this position: · C.J. Spiller, Stevan Ridley and Reggie Bush or ... · LeSean McCoy, Steven Jackson and David Wilson or ... · Alfred Morris, Chris Johnson and Lamar Miller The middle rounds fill out very nicely as well. Having this kind of strength at running back sets you up nicely for the rest of the draft and gives you numerous in-season roster options. You will have the necessary depth should one of your stud running backs go down with an injury. You will also have valuable trade bait should you need to strengthen one of your other offensive positions. Furthermore, you will be setup nicely for your playoff run as the cold weather brings the running game to the forefront. I've always felt I can go to the waiver wire on a weekly basis and pick up a serviceable wide receiver or quarterback. However, if you have ever gotten stuck in the unenviable position of filling a running back spot off the waiver wire, you know the futility of this task. Now let's fill in the rest of the team. The pass-happiness of the league and the emergence of several promising rookie quarterbacks last season means there are great quarterback options available in Rounds 4-...

Really??? Or, Really!!! fantasysharks.com Tue 7/16/13 9:06 AM2 Comments

A look at a handful of running backs (beyond the obvious ones) to decide whether they make me want to say: Really??? Or, really!!! Steven Jackson I don't know why there's been any buzz around Jackson's move to Atlanta. Pick a reason. The steady decline in his numbers (his rushing yards have decreased by an average of more than 100 yards per year since 2009), joining a pass-happy team with multiple elite receivers, or the younger option in Jacquizz Rodgers lurking in the background hungry for carries. Not to mention the fact that the team has come out and said that we won't see him much in the preseason so we don't know fully the extent that they will use him once the regular season rolls around. Steven Jackson. Really??? Trent Richardson The Cleveland Browns took a chance on Richardson last year. The rookie had arthroscopic surgery in his knee in February of 2012 then having the same surgery in August in the same knee for "unrelated" reasons. Two knee surgeries, albeit minor, before ever playing a down in the NFL. As such, I steered clear of him last year because knee surgery for a running back makes me say "no thank you" (unless you're superhuman, see Adrian Peterson). He proved me wrong, totaling 1,317 all-purpose yards last year, missing only the last game of the year when others were sitting out. This year, they fear that his shin bruise could turn into a stress fracture (remember Kevin Ware's gruesome injury from a stress fracture in the NCAA tournament last year?). So, yeah. Trent Richardson. Really??? Any running back in Denver Coach John Fox apparently needs running back rehab, because he has an addiction to collecting them. Last year, I had high hopes for Ronnie Hillman, even as a rookie in yet another pass-heavy offense. Leave it to Fox to be schizophrenic when it comes to the position, weaving a tangled web with a running back by committee situation. It's great if you're a Broncos fan, whichever back gets in there will have fresh legs. It's nerve racking for fantasy football. Take a look at the Carolina Panthers. They still don't know what to do with all the guys he collected when he was there. When there are way too many guys, I'll look elsewhere first. A sure fire starter, even a lower tier one, will at least offer some consistency. Ronnie Hillman/ Montee Ball/ Knowshon Moreno. Really??? Shane Vereen The New England Patriots as a whole are a mess. Danny Woodhead, Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd are gone, Julian Edelman is ...

2013 Speed Bump 1 -- The Steven Jackson Poll fantasyfootballwarehou... Mon 7/15/13 5:00 AM

Welcome to the kickoff of the 2013 Speed Bump poll competition! To kick off the festivities we are starting off with the NFL's active leading rusher Steven Jackson, who last year became the NFL's 27th back to top 10,000 rushing yards in a career. Jackson has been a workhorse back for the Rams, gaining at least 1,000 yards in each season after his rookie year. He has overcome against pretty atrocious teams making his streak all the more remarkable. Jackson leaves St. Louis having been part of 99 losses to just 44 wins over his career (with one tie). In Average Draft Position Data, these four go essentially in succession Chris Johnson (#12), Steven Jackson (#14), DeMarco Murray (#15) and David Wilson (#16).

Anatomy of a Draft fantasysharks.com Mon 7/15/13 5:00 AM

There is no greater feeling in the world than coming to one's fantasy football draft armed with a sound strategy and a self-made cheat sheet (Well maybe one, but I can't help you there). Here's the anatomy of a strategy that I have generally been sticking to this year, and an example of the strategy in action in a recent draft that I took part in. First Round: In the first round, always go with the best value on your draft board. With the eighth pick: C.J. Spiller, RB1 - I actually had Spiller ahead of Ray Rice and Trent Richardson on my cheat sheet; so to me, this was a steal at No. 8. Second Round: If you didn't draft a running back in the first round, you should draft one here. If you did, go with the best available value. Unless you see incredible value at the quarterback position, avoid it. Do not draft a tight end in the second round. With the 17th pick: Steven Jackson , RB2 - A no-brainer selection in the middle of the second round. Matt Forte, Frank Gore or Stevan Ridley would have worked here, too; but if I could have gotten A.J. Green, I would have. Third Round: If you only have one running back so far, draft a second one here. If you already have two running backs, generally go with the best available wide receiver. There is a sharp drop off at the wide receiver position after this round; and the wide receiver position as a whole tends to have the least turnover in value from year to year. Seven of the 12 wide receivers ranked in the top-12 preseason last year finished in the top-12. That's more than any other position. Get a consistent WR1, and you can take fliers or WR2s later. With the 32nd pick: Vincent Jackson , WR1 - Kind of a tossup between Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald here. My cheat sheet gave Jackson the edge. Fourth Round: Freebie! Take the best available player regardless of position. This year, it seems that a lot of elite quarterbacks are falling here, so since you should have the foundation of your team already laid with two running backs and a wide receiver, this is a great round to scoop up that quarterback talent. With the 41st pick: Cam Newton , QB - Getting a 20 points-per-game quarterback in the fourth round gives me some inkling into how it must feel to rob the federal reserve bank. Fifth and Sixth Rounds: I separate the first six rounds into three round blocks. The first three rounds, I build a core with two running backs and one wide receiver. The following three rounds I want a quarterback, ...

Running Backs: NFC South fantasysharks.com Mon 7/1/13 9:06 AM

1 Star -- Look elsewhere 2 Stars -- Desperation/Handcuff pick 3 Stars -- Serviceable starter 4 Stars -- Solid Starter you can count on every week 5 Stars -- Stud, Top 10 running back Atlanta -- Steven Jackson/Jacquizz Rodgers We all know that running backs seem to taper off after 30, and this is the year Steven Jackson gets bit by the 30 bug. That's not to say he's not going to be good enough to start each week. I fully expect Jackson to post good numbers on this high-powered offense. If Michael Turner can do it, so can Jackson. He played every single game last year and through injury. In the last four seasons he has only missed two games. That's huge! Jackson is a tough physical back, and while father time gets to all running backs, I think Jackson makes him wait another year to fully start to wear him down. Being on a new team, especially one with the capability of making it to the Super Bowl, is going to give him a nice spark and net another season with more than 1,000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns (side note: that would give him nine consecutive years of more than 1,000 yards!) Now that I have talked him up a bit, let's not get too carried away. Jackson may not be a first-round draft pick but you may want to start considering him in round two. As far as Jacquizz Rodgers goes, I'm not so certain this is going to be his year, either. I kept hoping he would have a breakout game last year as we could all see him starting to supplant Michael Turner as the season went on, but Michael Turner kept on doing just enough to keep his job. Totaling only three games last year with 10 carries or more is nothing to write home about. While Rodgers can be a high-quality back there's no doubt that Jackson will be the featured man in Atlanta. Jackson -- 4 Stars; Rodgers -- 1.75 Stars Carolina -- DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart /Mike Tolbert Abandon all hope ye who draft here. Heed this warning and try to steer clear of these three by any means necessary; let someone else get the headache of this terrible backfield committee. The problem is all three backs are good, and trying to decide which one is going to have the better week is anyone's guess. On top of the committee issue, Williams hits the magic age of 30 this year and Jonathan Stewart is coming off ankle surgeries and hasn't practiced at all. I think he'll be fine for the start of the season but that surgery is not really the problem when it comes to drafting them. It's the committee. Not only ...

A Smart Attack fantasysharks.com Tue 6/25/13 6:30 AM

Below are two players in the top 25 that others seem to love more than I do, and two players outside the top 25 that I have a man crush on. (ADP = Average Draft Position) Overvalued Alfred Morris, ADP of 11: Now I have Morris in a keeper league and I am going to exchange my third-round pick for him without any problems. But his average draft position is between the 10th and 12th pick in current mock drafts; I have been seeing him selected as high as seventh overall. Now I think your first two picks need to be sure winners, not question marks. Without the read option as a Washington Redskins staple, how can we project for this kid to dominate? And why do we suddenly trust coach Mike Shanahan again? He is less stable at running back than any other coach. I am not going to say that he does not get the ball 300 times, but it seems like a Shonn Greene double-feature might be in the making. Chris Johnson, ADP of 23: Are you seriously going to take that chance? He has way too much downside for your second pick in any draft. People keep living the dream that he is suddenly going to get that step back and carry the load. He is not that guy. He had his success similar to Jamaal Charles when he slaughtered the league by storm before teams started to game plan for him. I would put Charles in the same boat, but I have a feeling that coach Andy Reid is going to find a way to get Charles going. Others I don't love at their current ADP: Trent Richardson (10), Demaryius Thomas (24), Stevan Ridley (21), Steven Jackson (13). Undervalued Ryan Mathews, ADP of 51: I know the stat sheets ... and I know you think he is fragile. However, there were some games last year where this kid was electric and started to take over the game. He has received tweets from fans hoping he would die. And I say if he dies he is coming back to life as a nightmare for defenses in an up tempo Mike McCoy offense that can use Mathews in the ‘flats' as a receiver and on the ground as slippery ‘I out flanked you' running back. Willis McGahee was dominant under McCoy's scheme, and in 2011 the Denver Broncos led the league in rushing. Watch out for this kid this year! Dwayne Bowe, ADP of 44: I have heard his talk this year that he is going to lead the league in touchdowns and receptions. I am not getting on that train, but he is a big and dominant receiver that can take over the game. Bowe is going to do well with an offensive minded coach and an upgrade at quarterback. Kansas City is ...