Inside The Gamebook - Week 3 fantasysharks.com Sat 9/22/12 11:00 AM
Victor Cruz, A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson and Jimmy Graham have all seen double-digit targets through two games, and Cruz is currently leading the league with 28 targets. Green's 23 targets are encouraging regarding his potential based on opportunity; however, he is only averaging 10.7 yards per reception while converting 52 percent of his targets into receptions (average of .78 points per target), which is the lowest average per target out of the Top 30 ranked receivers. While these numbers are a little troublesome regarding his production, some deep balls could drive these numbers up very quick, and you have to expect those sooner rather than later.
Jackson has seen 20 targets through two games but he is converting a below-average 45 percent of his targets into receptions. Despite the low conversion rate, he is ranked sixth in the league in yards per reception (19.4) and is averaging 1.15 points per target. His conversion rate will get better as he and Josh Freeman become more comfortable, and his production should be on par with his career production while in San Diego.
Other receivers with more than 14 targets through two games who have a below-average conversion rate include: Stevie Johnson (40 percent), but Johnson is ranked 11th in the league in yards per reception at 18.5 and he also has a 33 percent receiving touchdown percentage. These numbers are encouraging regarding his potential if he gets his conversion rate up to, or above, 50 percent.
Santonio Holmes is at a 37 percent conversion rate and is averaging .79 points per target. While these numbers are concerning, he did miss time in the preseason and could have timing issues with Mark Sanchez. But what looks to be more troublesome is the erratic play from Sanchez, which could limit his potential upside.
Larry Fitzgerald is at a 31 percent conversion rate and is averaging .38 points per target. These numbers are very troublesome and the problems are his surroundings -- the offensive line, the quarterback position and running backs have all played poorly so far -- and this will limit his potential to produce on a consistent level.
Fred Davis appears to have become an afterthought in the Washington passing game and is ranked 24th in targets to tight ends. He is averaging .59 points per target and is only converting 44 percent of his targets into receptions.
Percy Harvin is averaging a low 10.4 yards per reception but he is converting an above-average 86 percent of his targets...
Buy, Sell, Hold - Week 3 fantasysharks.com Thu 9/20/12 5:30 AM 5 Comments
Unless you're lactose intolerant and just downed a gallon of milk, No. 2 can be pretty tough to predict. Week 2 in the NFL can be just as tough to predict. Julio Jones shredded the Kansas City Chiefs for 108 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. Double-digit points in Week 2 should be a walk in the park, right? Which park? Because 14 yards receiving doesn't sound very wholesome or family friendly.
At least quarterbacks are more consistent. Wait, what?! The Top 10 quarterbacks from Week 1 all scored at least 20 points in standard scoring formats. Seven out of those 10 scored fewer than 15 points in Week 2, including guys like Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning. The worst offender was easily Jay Cutler; a Hannibal Lecter in a room full of lambs. Cutler dropped from a solid 23 points in Week 1 to a solid turd of four points in Week 2.
Oh, and how do you determine what's an easy matchup versus what's a difficult one? Should we go off of last year's statistics or defer to the much smaller sample size of Week 1? Cleveland was the No. 2 defense against the pass last season. This year, they're the fifth-worst in the same category. So what does that tell you about the matchup with Buffalo this coming week? Well, with cornerback Joe Haden missing the next four games for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances, it makes starting Stevie Johnson an easier call.
Heading into Week 3, trends are starting to emerge. Four full weeks of play is usually a pretty good barometer, the first real checkpoint. But until then, make sure to keep yourself up-to-date, well informed, and loaded with proper dietary fiber.
Week 3 BUYS:
On average, Aaron Rodgers was selected as the No. 1 quarterback this year, typically in the first round. Robert Griffin III was taken about 80 spots later as the No. 12 quarterback (according to their average draft positions). Rodgers is currently 14th in scoring at the quarterback position; Griffin is No. 1. If I were drafting tonight for the rest of the year, I'd still take Rodgers. If I were drafting for Week 3 only, I'd take Griffin. Cincinnati's defense is a lot more generous than Seattle's.
C.J. Spiller deserves to remain the starter even when Fred Jackson comes back from injury. The dude is averaging a ridiculous 10 yards per carry. That's Tecmo Bowl type numbers. Simply put, he's a dynamic talent that brings an explosive element to the Buffalo offense. Jackson is by no means a mediocre talent, but Buffalo ...
Audibles Week 3: Scenarios to watch fantasysharks.com Wed 9/19/12 9:00 AM 2 Comments
Week 2's surprises are over and I'm personally glad. We saw how bad teams like the Chiefs and Raiders are. I keep wondering why folks see value in players on these teams. Is it because guys like Dwayne Bowe get big stats in complete garbage time? I just can't bear to watch either of these teams play. I guess it doesn't matter when your stats come as long as they do. I still don't buy into owning players from either one of situations. Sure you can make a case a couple times a year, like bye weeks, that starting someone from one of these teams makes sense. Okay you can make a case for two offensive players, but that's about all.
I'm making a case to watch the Red Zone channel only. That way I can avoid all the mistakes that the scrub referee's make. Oh wait, these turds are everywhere in games, on the Red Zone channel, and in Steven Jackson's dreams. It's a bad situation when you have to turn to a guy like Mike Perreira who looks like Barry Weiss from TV's Storage Wars for an explanation of what the rule is. I better get to Week 3 scenarios before someone knocks me off my soapbox.
My Week 3 Audibles
The Buffalo Bills have seen a few stars go down in the last two weeks. After David Nelson went down, one could guess that it would be Donald Jones to get the bulk of the work opposite Stevie Johnson. Wait a minute here folks. It seems that the additional work is going the direction of TE- Scott Chandler. It makes perfect sense to me now...
Take Chandler this week vs. a Cleveland Browns defense that ranks 23rd against the tight end. I like this match up and Chandler has already notched two TD's on six catches. He was targeted over five times each week thus far. If you have an injury, I have your solution. I can go on about size and hands, but it may sound too much like your dating career and I just can't go there now. Grab Chandler as he is available in better than 85% of leagues. Cheap- Cheap for now.
I gave you a couple of receivers last week to look at in Andrew Hawkins and Andre Roberts. I was disappointed in the targets and yardage totals, but they both found the end zone. I still have confidence in both, but Armon Binns has climbed into my head and he won't leave. That sounds like a confessional that would require me to relax and lay back in a leather chair equipped with an ottoman. So just as I thought that it could be Hawkins emerging as the perfect compliment to A.J. Green, here comes Binns. After 10 targets in the last two weeks, I ...
Preseason Week 1: From the Deep fantasysharks.com Fri 8/10/12 8:45 AM 8 Comments
Washington 7, Buffalo 6
Redskins
The highlight of this matchup was the preseason debut of RGIII. After a slow start, on the Skins 3rd possession Griffin hooked up with Pierre Garcon twice, including a 20-yard screen pass for a touchdown. Based on this one performance it was clear the "French Waiter" is Griffin's favorite target as the Skins newest playmaker accumulated three receptions for 58 yards a one TD.
As promised by head coach Mike Shanahan, the Skins started running back Evan Royster who remained in the game alongside the starting unit. Royster put together a rather pedestrian performance highlighted by a fumbled handoff from Griffin on Washington's second series. Royster was eventually replaced by 2nd year man Roy Helu who also had a lackluster performance. Given Shanahan's strong ties to the RBBC it would be hard to rely on any Skins RB at this juncture.
Bills
Oddly reminiscent of last season, the Bills offense came out of the gates very slow. However, the absence of Fred Jackson, and the limited role of CJ Spiller accounts for the Bills' shortcomings. Fitzpatrick was able to hook up with Stevie Johnson for a 20-yard touchdown, only to be called back after an illegal formation (it speaks to Buffalo's poor performance when the only highlight is a negated touchdown).
Falcons 17, Baltimore 31
Falcons
The Falcons have been promising all offseason that they are going to "throw the football", and they delivered in spades. Matt Ryan opened the game on fire hooking up multiple times with both Roddy White and Julio Jones. Jones capped off the opening drive with a back of the endzone TD. Early indications have every member of the Falcons' aerial attack in store for a productive fantasy season.
Starting running back Michael Turner was relatively ineffective looking sluggish. Turner was later replaced by backup Jacquizz Rodgers who was a much more efficient runner showing mobility and strength including scoring the Falcons second TD in a goal line situation. Turner's fantasy value continues to slide.
Ravens
The Baltimore offense began the game very anemic as their first 1st down didn't come until the 2nd quarter. Rice had little room to run on the opening series, but didn't play after that. It's never a good sign when the starting lineup stays in the game into the 2nd quarter of preseason game one.
On the bright side, the Ravens would put together a long scoring drive capped off by a touchdown from tight end Ed Dickson. Wide receiver ...
Audibles Week 14- Crystal Ball fantasysharks.com Fri 12/9/11 9:06 AM
This week is the start of playoffs in most leagues. I congratulate you if you are in the hunt this time of year and console you if your season didn't go as planned. Do you need a hug? Hopefully you learned a thing or two this year that will lead you to return next season with a better understanding of this game. I learn something every year.
None of us have a crystal ball except maybe Tony Holm. There is quite a bit of speculation about where he keeps it. I'm sure you envision it on his desk as a paper weight. I think that may be way too accessible to folks. So the answer must be some place less obvious like a safe or a locking file cabinet. I can just tell you that I don't have access from my sattellite office here on the west coast. So you can bet that I haven't seen it and don't have access to it. That being said, I'm going to share some of the things that I learned this year and do my best impersonation of the prognosticator and pick Sunday's games.
Lesson number One:
Cross off all Redskins' running backs from consideration for next year. I don't care if Roy Helu has seven TD's in the final four games. You don't need to put yourself in that position. If there is more than one to choose from, you can't tell how the ball will be distibuted. I'll never buy again period.
Lesson number Two:
You don't need any part of the Packer ground game. It's not the staple there and no one needs a John Kuhn 1 yard Touchdown.They haven't done much and Mike McCarthy has been sniffing the sharpie in his cap before each game and at half time.
Lesson number Three:
Don't continue to start receivers on teams that rely on one quarterback when that QB gets hurt. Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon, and Andre Johnson. I understand that you have a lot invested and you need someone who is going to play but most teams are set up with only one serviceable signal caller. There are plenty of slot receivers with a marquee field general throwing to them. Suck it up before you get a zero.
Lesson number Four:
Understand that owners will always panic after losing a few games and drop marquee players. This is your opportunity to get something for nothing. Don't wait until you look at the matchups and his previous stats just make the acquisition. I lost out on Steve Johnson because I was wondering why someone would drop him and started looking at the matchups. Meanwhile, he got swooped under my nose.
So I said I learn a few new things every year. Those were the most frustrating ...