All-Overrated Team fantasysharks.com Tue 6/25/13 6:00 AM 1 Comment
Bacon is overrated.
Don't believe me? Try Googling "bacon lovers." Some of the things that pop up would cause a vegan to spit out their tofu. You'll find bacon lollipops, bacon cakes, bacon jelly beans, bacon beer, bacon wine and countless other treats made from the tasty pork product. A popular fair item this summer will be bacon burgers. No, these are not just hamburgers topped with bacon, but burgers made almost entirely out of bacon (burgers topped with bacon, bacon cheese, bacon sauce, and served on a bacon flavored bun).
In case you were wondering, there is a bacon coffin on the market. Yes, after spending your (likely way-too-short) life chasing your bacon burgers with bacon milkshakes, you can declare your eternal love for those greasy, flavor-filled strips by being sent six feet under in your bacon-colored coffin.
Don't get me wrong, I like bacon. Most people do. That's not the problem. The problem is people's devotion to a food once reserved for breakfast has reached cartoonishly absurd levels.
When a large number of people become so enamored with something that they cease to look at the thing rationally, then "overrated happens."
The same thing happens in fantasy. The new offensive coordinator arrives and the "experts" predict big things for the tight end in the new system. A veteran gets cut, opening the door to more touches for the promising rookie. A team signs a new left tackle, ensuring a bounceback year for the aging quarterback.
It all begins innocently enough, but once enough "experts" parrot the same offseason reports and the same names start to appear on all of their "sleeper" and "breakout" lists, then, like the bacon addicts, rational thought is sent packing as another owner takes a seat on the hype train.
While I know the hype train is too powerful to be stopped, I do intend to attempt to at least slow down some of the momentum of some of the more overrated players at each position.
Keep in mind that being on this list does not mean that I do not like a particular player. I would love to own most of the guys on this list. It just means that based on their current average draft position (ADP), they are overrated.
With that, I present to you the "All Overrated Team -- Pre-Training Camp" edition. Each member includes his current average draft position (ADP) as recorded on fantasyfootballcalculator.com, as well as a player with a higher ADP that I would rather draft.
Quarterback
OVERRATED ...
Aaron Rodgers (ADP of ...
Matt Schaub -- Fantasy Football Stealth Star rotoviz.com Tue 6/4/13 3:36 PM
The first two quarterback articles in the Stealth Star series dealt with Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco, two reality behemoths who aren't beloved in fantasy. Even though neither is particularly young, the RotoViz Similarity Score app sees a breakout in store for both players. In the premier running back article, I suggested DeMarco Murray could act as the fulcrum for your entire fantasy draft.
The third entrant in our series is another player widely believed to be better in reality than fantasy, but he offers even more potential value because his reality reputation is flagging as well.
I might be biased about Matt Schaub. The Texans signal-caller was my breakout pick in 2009, and he responded by lighting the world on fire to the tune of 4770 yards and 29 touchdowns. This was still two years before the big QB passing explosion. Schaub's yardage total led the league. At the time, he held the sixth highest single-season total in NFL history.
Of course, things haven't gone as well since.
Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee collapsed, allowing the Texans to move to a conservative offense.The Texans' zone-blocking scheme helped Arian Foster become one of the biggest forces in fantasy football. Schaub struggled to throw touchdowns as they were extremely run-heavy in the red zone.Schaub was injured during a 2011 season where he was averaging a gaudy 8.5 yards per attempt and was posting a very solid 5.1% touchdown rate.It may be strange then that the Similarity Scores offer an enthusiastic take on his 2013 prospects. Consider Schaub's projection next to a couple of other intriguing QB possibilities.
SchaubStaffordDaltonLow13.712.315.2Median18.41816.6High20.720.119.2* One of the great things about the QB Similarity Score App is the ability to ...
Draft Recap -- Veteran Impact fantasysharks.com Fri 5/17/13 2:00 PM
Examining the recent draft, we are always looking for that next diamond in the rough. We will comb through each skill player selected attempting to predict who will become fantasy Rookie of the Year. And while a handful of rookies will find themselves in the fantasy headlines, the impact can also touch the NFL veterans. Listed below are players trending upward, and a few veterans we are likely to avoid on draft day.
Trending Up:
Michael Vick -- Of course, much of Vick's upside will be connected to the hiring of offensive juggernaut Chip Kelly as Philadelphia's coach. And the return of Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters also gains recognition. But examining the NFL draft, the Eagles added two key pieces to thrust Vick's fantasy projections. First was the drafting of Lane Johnson with the fourth overall selection to bookend with Peters. The second was adding powerhouse tight end Zach Ertz. A prolific playmaker at Stanford, Ertz has all the measurable to be great in future years. My guess is the preseason will skyrocket Vick's value. But a projected average draft position in the eighth round is solid value considering the upside.
Andy Dalton -- Over the past two seasons, Dalton has developed into a proficient NFL quarterback. He's led the Cincinnati Bengals to the playoffs each season with good decision-making and solid arm talent. The limiting factor for Dalton's fantasy development has been the Bengals dumbed-down version of the West Coast Offense. However, if the drafting of top tight end Tyler Eifert is any indication, the passing game will be expanded in 2013. Dalton exited last season as a mid QB2, but the addition of Eifert will propel his stock into the low QB1 range, meaning an excellent spot starter in a plus matchup.
Matt Schaub -- Since his breakout season in 2009, Schaub has been touted as a mid-QB1. But, over the past two years, Schaub has failed to meet expectations. Poor production has him tumbling down the pre-draft rankings. A major downfall has been the lack of talent opposite Andre Johnson. The Texans finally made provisions selecting DeAndre Hopkins in the first round. With the healthy return of Johnson and Owen Daniels, Schuab should have enough team talent to become a low-end QB1. Again, a solid spot starter, and possibly trade bait should he open the season on fire. Be warned that Schaub is a yellow flag injury risk, but solid value with a projected average draft position in the 10th round.
Josh Freeman -- There is a lot to like ...
Divisional Playoff Players to Watch from a 2013 Fantasy Perspective fantasysharks.com Thu 1/10/13 11:00 AM
There are some very interesting names to take notice of in this weekend's Divisional playoff matchups as potential 2013 fantasy options. How they are used and how they produce in the pressure cooker that is the NFL playoffs can be a nice barometer of future fantasy worthiness. Let's get to it!
DuJuan Harris , RB, Green Bay: Harris may not be the long-term answer at the running back position for the Packers but he is using the late season and playoffs to throw his hat in the ring for consideration. He had 47 yards and a touchdown on the ground in the win over the Minnesota Vikings in the first round of the playoffs. Harris was also utilized in the passing game and hauled in five receptions for 53 yards while being targeted six times.
Harris pulled away in the competition for playing time with Alex Green and Ryan Grant down the stretch with a 4.6 yards per carry average and two touchdowns in the last four games of the regular season. He runs hard and shows a nice burst at the point of attack, and his receiving skills make him a nice fit in the high-powered Packers attack. The sledding will be much tougher this week in San Francisco but watch the kid closely as he can continue to stake his claim on a 2013 spot in the running back rotation for Green Bay.
DeVier Posey , WR, Houston: The Texans utilized their rushing game and short passing attack to beat the Cincinnati Bengals, unleashing Arian Foster to the tune of 32 carries for 140 yards and a touchdown. Foster would also catch eight passes out of the backfield for another 34 yards in the Houston victory. In fact, Matt Schaub would target the wide receiver position only 11 times for the entire game and throw to Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter exclusively. The two combined for eight catches and 88 total yards with no scores.
That will not get the job done against the New England Patriots this week or heading forward into the 2013 season, and Posey will have the chance to make a name for himself this week. Over the last four games of the regular season Posey was targeted 13 times and hauled in six passes for 87 yards. The Patriots' game plan to take away what an offense does best so look for them to concentrate on stuffing the running game and blanketing the tight ends, which will free up Posey for the opportunity to put up numbers. How he performs this week can be an indicator of how he could emerge next season in the Texans' passing game.
Bernard Pierce , RB, Baltimore: Don't look now but starting ...
The Diary of a Fantasy Virgin - Week 18 fantasysharks.com Tue 1/8/13 4:00 AM
It was Wild Card weekend and I went 3-1. Boutique picks were Cincinnati and Seattle. Seattle only came through because RG III was 25%. But the overall games were less than fantastic. Sure the TV ratings were spectacular, but the games just were not as crisp as playoff football happens in your memories. Where are the epic up and down offensive sequences? Maybe this week the final four will deliver. But first comes the week that was.
Wild Card = Wild Snooze
Right off the bat were the Houston Texans hosting the Cincinnati Bengals. When Andre Johnson cannot get touches and Arian Foster is your only offense, it is either a great Cincinnati defense or the continuation of Houston's Matt Schaub struggling. I take the latter over the former. Cincinnati actually had the ball back with 6:15 to play in the game and gave it up on downs at the Houston 36. Cincinnati 13 Houston 19.
The second game on Saturday was the Minnesota Vikings at the Green Bay Packers. Just moments before the game, Christian Ponder was announced as ineligible due to an elbow injury. His backup Joe Webb was ineffective. How did Minnesota score 10 points at all? Minnesota 10 Green Bay 24.
The first game on Sunday saw the Indianapolis Colts at the Baltimore Ravens. When you exchange three points for Indy and seven points for Baltimore, you have a one-sided affair. Indianapolis 9 Baltimore 24.
The last game of the weekend was the Washington Redskins hosting the Seattle Seahawks. RG III was 50% healthy. In the end his knee affected his accuracy after the first quarter. In that 1st quarter, Washington rolled over the Seattle defense to establish a quick 14-point lead. But in the end, Washington's offensive possessions were not effective. They had only 41 yards of offense after the first two touchdowns and the RG III fumble. Yikes! Seattle 24 Washington 14.
Saturday's Games
First up on Saturday is the Baltimore Ravens at the Denver Broncos. All of this is very straightforward. Peyton Manning is better than Joe Flacco. Demarius Thomas is better than Anquan Boldin. But more importantly, the Denver Bronco defense is that much better than Baltimore's defense this year. Denver wins and may win big.
The second game has the Green Bay Packers visiting the San Francisco 49ers. The Green Bay Packers have Aaron Rodgers and the 49ers have Colin Kaepernick. Color me reactionary, but when you have a rookie QB, no matter how good they have become, there are consequences. Green Bay gets revenge and ...
Playoff Special: Analyzing Week 18's Matchups fantasysharks.com Fri 1/4/13 8:00 AM
Lost in the finals? Didn't make your fantasy playoffs? Don't worry, you have a fresh start in January. I will tell you everything you need to know about Wild Card Weekend and how you should plan for postseason success.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Houston has stumbled into the playoffs dropping from the top seed all the way to the third seed. They still have home field advantage for the first round, though. Matt Schaub should not be on your radar in fantasy circles, but Arian Foster and Andre Johnson should. It appears there should be no concerns about Foster's irregular heartbeat. Andre Johnson stormed on to the scene after a slow start, posting big points per reception (PPR) league numbers since Week 6. He caught 95 balls in the last 11 games of the season, which allowed him to finish top 5 in the league in receptions. The only statistic slacking for Johnson was his touchdown numbers (four). In PPR leagues, he will make for a nice Week 18 option since Houston may not last longer than the divisional round with a rematch in New England looming if they defeat Cincinnati.
The last option on the Texans to consider would be Owen Daniels. The tight end field is slim this week, but Daniels has not been playing as well as he was for the first 75 percent of the season. It is likely no coincidence that the Texans have struggled as well in that same time frame. It is a good sign that coach Gary Kubiak knows this as well. He promised to get the ball more to Daniels in their game this weekend. He has been banged up, but who isn't this time of the year?
On the other side, Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will need to have big days in order for them to bring down the Texans. Jonathan Joseph could be matched up with Green for most of this one, which could hurt his numbers. However, for the most part, Green has been matchup proof. The stud receiver from Georgia hauled in 10 touchdowns from Weeks 2-11, but then was able to score just once the remainder of the season. This could be a cause for concern as the Bengals enter the playoffs, but they know who they need to get the ball to in order to win. In Green's two career games against Houston, he his numbers are five catches for 59 yards and five catches for 47 yards (last year's playoff game). I would avoid BenJarvus Green-Ellis as his upside is limited.
As for the defenses, it will be hard to totally trust Houston, but I would give the Texans a chance at home this weekend. You do not want them for the long haul ...
Good Call/Bad Call - Week 16 fantasysharks.com Fri 12/21/12 8:00 AM
Welcome to championship week. If you're still playing today, you're most likely playing in a championship game, or, if you're like me, two consolation championships. Consolation championships, for those who don't have a league with them, are the losers bracket for fantasy playoffs, but that still offer something to play for. In one of my leagues, the consolation winner gets the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft, and in another the consolation winner gets their entry fee paid for next year. It's a nice way to keep your league members interested as long as possible.
We all hate that team that gives up because they're 3-7 after Week 10, and allows some team on the edge of making the playoffs into them just because they played a team that stopped paying attention. If you're league doesn't have a consolation prize for teams not playing for the top prize, I'd highly suggest setting something up. Having that consolation prize makes fantasy football just a little more fun, and can keep the integrity of your league alive when the fantasy season starts wrapping up. Now on to the calls for the week.
Quarterbacks
The New Orleans defense has been a really good matchup for whichever quarterback gets to play them this year. Two weeks ago, Eli Manning had four touchdown passes against the Saints, and two weeks before that rookie Colin Kaepernick had 22 fantasy points in his matchup. This week Tony Romo gets the pleasure of matching up against the Saints. Romo is been back to being start-able with three of his last four games over 20 fantasy points. If you've got Romo this week, start him with confidence.
Matt Schaub has been more a game manager than a play maker this year, but this is the week he's got a ton of upside. Three of his last four games have been on the road, but a home matchup against Minnesota this weekend should provide you with good points if you're starting Schaub this week. The Vikings rank 27th against quarterbacks this year, and with Adrian Peterson making it his personal goal to set the single season rushing title this week, this could actually be a close game. Schaub might have to do more than just hand the ball off, and that means more points for you if you start him.
Someone you might want to keep out of your starting lineup this week is Eli Manning. His matchup in Baltimore is going to be tough. The Ravens haven't allowed any quarterback to throw more than two touchdowns against them all year, and that happened just twice. ...
Good Call/Bad Call - Week 14 fantasysharks.com Fri 12/7/12 12:30 PM
This is the week that playoffs should be starting for 90 percent of you. If you made the championship bracket, congratulations. Now just don't get ahead of yourself and overthink your lineup decisions. A lot of fantasy football players get to these critical weeks, and they start guys that have been hot for just a couple of weeks over their proven players that might have a tweaked ankle or hamstring. I know things are more crucial since it's a win-or-you're-out week, but keep doing what got you this far and you'll do fine. Now on to the calls for the week.
Quarterbacks
Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans will be wrapping up their three-game road trip this week in New England. Schaub has more than 1,000 passing yards and eight touchdown passes over his last three games, so to say things are going well for Schaub owners right now would be an understatement. This week, Schaub is a ‘good call' to be in your fantasy lineup because the Patriots rank 29th against opposing quarterbacks. They've given up seven 300-plus yard passers on the season, and with their high-powered offense, Houston won't be able to sit back, run the ball and wind the clock. If you've got Schaub this week, go ahead and start him.
The Philadelphia defense has given up multiple touchdown passes in every one of their last six games. Josh Freeman has thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his last eight games. This matchup seems ripe for the picking for Freeman to throw multiple touchdown passes again this week. Freeman should also be able to get moderate yardage this week, but don't expect 350-plus passing yards out of him this week. If you need a quarterback to get you some decent points Freeman would be a ‘good call,' but if you need a boom-or-bust week from your quarterback, Freeman might not be who you're looking for.
Tony Romo's trip to Cincinnati this week could be a rough one if you're starting him. The Bengals rank seventh against quarterbacks, and have allowed just one passing touchdown in their past four games. Romo has been better as of late with two good games back-to-back, but those were against Philadelphia and Washington, who rank 27th and 30th against quarterbacks, respectively. If you were sitting Romo earlier this season, I'd go with whomever you were starting back then this week. Romo is a ‘bad call' to be in your lineup this week.
Before allowing Robert Griffin III to throw four touchdown passes against them on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys defense had allowed just two ...
Buy, Sell, Hold - Week 14 fantasysharks.com Thu 12/6/12 7:00 AM
Back in 2004, Sean Combs (aka Puffy, Diddy, P. Papa, Papa Diddy Pop, or whatever he's calling himself these days) founded the political service group "Citizen Change" to try and motivate America's youth to get out and vote. Their campaign was simple, "Vote or Die!" More than 51 percent of Americans under the age of 30 voted in that election, up more than nine percent from the previous election. Fortunately, for the other 49 percent of Americans under 30, Diddy didn't follow through on his threat. Wuss.
The mantra for this time of the fantasy football season is just as simple. No, it's not "Win or Die!" Although if a loss this week ends your season, it might as well be. Next September is so far from now, the rapture will likely take place before it arrives. No, the mantra is, "Win or Go Home." Better yet, "Win or Stay Home," because you ain't going nowhere ... especially to the championship game. Unless, of course, you've earned a bye this week, or your playoffs start next week and you've already clinched a spot. In which case, what do you care? Your do-or-die moment doesn't come until a week from now. Kick your feet up, grab a cold one and watch your team crush the hopes of another team whose fate rests on this week.
Here's some plays this week that could impact your matchups: some good, some bad, and a little bit of everything else for Week 14.
Week 14 BUYS
Matchups I like this week
QB Andrew Luck vs. Tennessee. Luck threw the ball 54 times last week. That's 47 more attempts than Tim Tebow has had all season! OK, bad example. Luck didn't even complete half of those attempts, and he was still able to post 36 points against the Detroit Lions (most points for any quarterback last week). Sure it was a game that went to overtime, but Luck is second in pass attempts for the season. The dude gets volume. And this week, the dude also gets a matchup against the Titans, a team so far down the ranks in pass defense they can't even see the ones on the top shelf. ( Other favorable matchups: Eli Manning vs. New Orleans, Josh Freeman vs. Philadelphia, Matt Schaub at New England, Joe Flacco at Washington.)
RB Ahmad Bradshaw vs. New Orleans. Bradshaw has reached double-digit fantasy points only six times this season. We're in Week 14. Quick math. Is that a good ratio? Not so much. But now he's facing fewer threats to his workload without Andre Brown lurking on the sideline. David Wilson still isn't getting enough touches to warrant consideration. So now ...
What Did We Learn - Week 12 fantasysharks.com Tue 11/27/12 4:00 AM
Andre Johnson went off again. Johnson followed up last week's dominant performance against Jacksonville with another big game, catching nine balls for 188 yards. That makes 23 receptions, 461 yards, and a touchdown in the past two weeks. He's clearly healthy, and the Houston running game provides enough of a threat to keep opposing defenses honest. Matt Schaub will continue to look for him going forward, and I anticipate we'll see Johnson maintain his current production, provided he can stay healthy.
The Washington offense is better than advertised. Robert Griffin III started off strong, but seemed to fade for a few weeks there. In the past two weeks, he's thrown for 511 yards, eight touchdowns, and just one interception, while running for another 113 yards. Add to that fellow rookie running back Alfred Morris and his stunning rookie campaign, and there's a youth movement in Washington. Santana Moss has returned to fantasy relevance, and Pierre Garcon is finally getting healthy. Add to it the raw speed of another rookie, Aldrick Robinson, and the Redskins offense is shaping up midseason. The Redskins will end up playing spoiler in the NFL over the next few weeks, and Griffin III and company will provide a similar boost to fantasy teams.
Michael Bush may take over for an injured Matt Forte. Forte and Bush have combined to be a decent running back this season. But Forte has been slowed by injuries and Bush has vultured touchdowns. Bush is stuck, once again, behind a more talented, but injury-prone back. On Sunday, Forte ran for 42 yards on 14 carries before re-injuring an ankle, forcing Bush into the lead role once again. Bush ran 21 times for 60 yards and a pair of short touchdowns on the day. He's more than capable of carrying the load, and he'll be a volume play with touchdown potential going forward, but don't expect big rushing totals.
Andy Dalton is a fringe QB1. This is tough for me, because I'm not a huge Dalton believer, but his numbers have been really good lately. On Sunday, against an admittedly poor Oakland defense, he threw for 210 yards and three touchdowns. In his last three games, he has 639 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions. While A.J. Green didn't score for the first time since Week 1, Dalton spread the ball around effectively. He's no Tom Brady or Drew Brees, but Dalton is a decent alternative if your starter has a tough matchup.
Knowshon Moreno is back on the fantasy map. Moreno hadn't been active for a single game this ...