Draft Plan 2014 - Free Agency 2.0 fantasysharks.com Mon 3/24/14 9:06 AM
With the second week of free agency now in the books, a number of key free agent moves have adjusted our pre-draft player assessment. This article takes a look back at the tier two roster changes that will affect our 2014 draft plan.
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos - I ‘m not ready to anoint him the next Eric Decker, but Sanders does have the requisite skill set to become a solid fantasy producer. Let us not forget Sanders will lavish in single coverage all day long opposite Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker, leading to some big days. With Manning tossing him the rock, I see Sanders as a mid-level WR3 worthy of a 10th round pick. This signing also assures Manning will be the first QB taken on draft day.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Panthers - In a surprise move the Panthers let the only face of the franchise, Steve Smith, walk straight to Baltimore for nearly the same money. The Panthers also saw last year's starters Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn depart to sign with other teams. Their big free agent splash so far is former Steelers WR Jerricho Cotchery. Better suited as a No. 2/possession receiver, Cotchery doesn't present enough athleticism to overcome double teams. Let me also remind everyone that Cam Newton won't be available to throw with his new No. 1 for a minimum of four weeks. With so many obstacles, Cotchery should be viewed as a late round flyer, at best.
Lance Moore, WR, Steelers - And that brings us to Pittsburgh's replacement at wide receiver, Lance Moore. An aging and injury-riddled slot receiver, Moore prospered just once in five seasons with the league's most prolific passing offense. The loss of Cotchery and Sanders only spells more opportunity for Antonio Brown, and not Moore, while putting Markus Wheaton on the radar. Best to leave Moore alone on draft day.
Mike Vick, QB, N. Y. Jets - Why does everyone keep loving this guy? Yes, I'm talking to you Deion Sanders. I will agree that when on the field Vick displays amazing talent, capable of putting up astronomical fantasy numbers any given Sunday. It's that athleticism that has kept Vick relevant all these years. However, he continues to see ghosts in the secondary, while trying to play the hero instead of avoiding the big blast. To my recollection, he's only played a complete full 16 games once in 11 years. Joining a Jets WR corps led by Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley doesn't scream confidence. Vick is what he is every year; to be drafted in the late rounds and hope you can trade him by Week 5....
Off the Matt dynastyleaguefootball.com Sat 3/22/14 7:30 AM
With the trade to Oakland, Matt Schaub's dynasty value increases...just a little.
Corner Lockdown - Week 16 fantasysharks.com Thu 12/19/13 8:30 AM
Running Wild
What else needs to be said about Jamaal Charles' performance last week other than, WOW! If you were lucky enough to have him on your team, congratulations on making it to the championship. If you played against him, there's always next year. Arguably the best fantasy running back heading into Week 15, Charles absolutely went crazy against the Oakland Raiders and solidified himself as the fantasy MVP for 2013. He scored five touchdowns on the day with four of them coming from the receiving end. In a fantasy effort for the ages, Charles ended up with 215 total yards and five scores. Though Oakland shut him down running the ball, the Raiders had no answer for his pass catching abilities. Charles compiled 195 receiving yards on the day, including scores of 39, 49 and 71 yards. He has been a beast this season and will look to provide his owners with one more big game against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16.
Matt Asiata
The unknown third-string running back for the Minnesota Vikings came up huge for anyone who took a big gamble on him last week. Filling in for the injured Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart, Asiata found the end zone three times against Philadelphia. His overall numbers weren't all that impressive as he rushed for just 51 yards on a whopping 30 carries, but he did have a nose for the goal line and that's all that matters in both fantasy football and real life football. Asiata threw in three receptions for 15 yards for good measure and didn't fumble the ball at all in a solid emergency effort. Peterson is expected back this week so Asiata will return to being fantasy irrelevant, but he is surely one of the main reasons people moved on in their playoff matchup, if they started him.
Shark Sleepers
Dennis Johnson, RB, Houston
Those playing in their league championships in need of a flex option or even a RB2/3 will want to keep an eye on Johnson and even add him now if you have a spot. Ben Tate was placed on Injured Reserve after he reinjured his ribs last week. Because of that, Johnson becomes a near must-start in fantasy. The Houston Texans are playing against a Denver run defense that has allowed well more than 100 rushing yards per game over the last month. Johnson would be a lock to receive at least 20 touches, especially with a struggling Matt Schaub at the helm for Houston. Be aware that Denver may be up early so this may eliminate some second half work, but overall, Johnson shouldn't have a problem racking up more than ...
Rock and a Hard Place - Week 12 fantasysharks.com Fri 11/22/13 2:00 PM
The bye weeks are almost done. But just when you need your team at full strength the most, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Seattle decide to take a week off. There's a lot of fantasy value on those squads. Hopefully, your team is able to dodge the bye week bullet. But if not, you'll need to scour the waiver wire for someone that can come on to make an impact.
Below, I'll list a player with some upside for this week, their Week 12 matchup, and the percentage of leagues in which he is owned according to our friends at fleaflicker.com .
DISCLAIMER - The hope is that you don't find yourself in a situation like this. The hope is that you dodge the bullet. But hope won't help you come Sunday.
Let's move on to this week's targets, keeping in mind that these aren't every week starters. Instead, these are guys that should only be used if you're in some kind of roster emergency. In case of emergency, break glass.
QB
Case Keenum vs. Jacksonville -- 45 percent. Keenum is coming off a rough game last week, during which the words " Matt Schaub " and "in the game" were used. Keenum is still a better quarterback than Schaub, and he gives the Houston Texans a much better chance of moving the ball. He also doesn't throw pick-sixes every 18 seconds. His production has actually been solid since taking over the starting job, and now he gets a juicy matchup as the Texans host the Jaguars. He's a solid starter this week, if available. Our site projects 255 yards and two touchdowns for Keenum, and I think those numbers sound about right.
Mike Glennon at Detroit -- 23 percent. Since Tampa Bay's Week 5 bye, Glennon has started six games for Tampa Bay. He's averaging just less than 225 yards per game, and he's thrown 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He's not asked to do a ton in the passing game, but he does enough, and he's careful with the ball. And facing Detroit is a bonus, because the Lions have been getting torched through the air recently. In Detroit's last five games, the Lions have averaged more than 300 passing yards allowed per game, and they've given up 14 touchdowns. With the Buccaneers running game now clicking, Glennon will be even better. We've projected 240 passing yards and a score, and I think that's way too low for the rookie signal caller.
RB
Bobby Rainey at Detroit -- 51 percent. I have a tough time believing that Rainey is still available in half of leagues. He's been nothing short of remarkable since getting his opportunity two ...
Nothing but Short and Sweet fantasysharks.com Fri 11/22/13 7:00 AM
Twelve Short and Sweets
Ray Rice - Keep it up! Rice needs to finish the season on a complete tear in order to save face for 2014. He needs to reward patient owners and continue to run with authority while finding the end zone consistently. Perhaps the return of Dennis Pitta will open up the run game a bit more.
Le'Veon Bell - What in the hell was that last week? Bell had about 15 chances to get into the end zone from the 1-yard line and failed to do so 15 times. Bell seems to be a far more talented receiver than a rusher and could find himself in a timeshare if he doesn't get his act together.
Mike Glennon - So far, so good, for the young quarterback. But is Glennon good enough to earn the starter's role next season? The Tampa Bay quarterback needs to continue his current pace to force Tampa Bay to forgo pursuing a free agent option in the offseason. He could also force himself into being a matchup based starting option for the remainder of the year depending how things go.
Adrian Peterson - Not his fault, but it's still hurting his value. Peterson has to create his own production as the offense is a complete dumpster fire and defenses are loading the box. Peterson has to break some of those long runs and score early in order to ensure carries in the second half of the game. Peterson could slide down the ranks if he doesn't finish hot.
Andre Johnson - The squabble between he and now second-string quarterback Matt Schaub created a lot of controversy over the past week. In fact, rumors are already swirling that Johnson could be sent packing this offseason. Johnson would be wise to go all out in order to get the hot stove burning before the age factor sets in. A move to San Diego, Baltimore or even New England could depend upon it.
Philip Rivers - Is he a clear-cut QB1 or is he simply a plug-and-play option to be paired with another QB2? This matchup against Kansas City will answer that question quickly as the Chiefs held Peyton Manning to his first one touchdown game of the year. There is a ton of value on the line for Rivers as he could finish the season with a top-10 ranking at the quarterback spot.
Cam Newton - Next season's quarterback listing will look almost nothing like this year's. Tom Brady is on the slide along with others like Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III. While Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have the top two rankings sewn up, the third spot is a jump ball. Newton has played like a man on fire and needs to continue to do so in...
Rock and a Hard Place - Week 11 fantasysharks.com Fri 11/15/13 8:25 AM
Only Dallas and St. Louis are on a bye this week. But this is crunch time. This is the time of the season when your margin for error is at its smallest. Let's say you have Tony Romo . Or let's even say you have Colin Kaepernick or Tom Brady . Romo is on a bye, and Kaepernick and Brady both have rough matchups this week. So what do you do?
If you need a solid performance, and your current roster isn't cutting it. Look at your alternatives, and don't be afraid to take a shot.
Below, I'll list a player with some upside for this week, their Week 11 matchup, and the percentage of leagues in which he is owned according to our friends at fleaflicker.com .
DISCLAIMER - The hope is that you don't find yourself in a situation like this. The hope is that you dodge the bullet. But hope won't help you come Sunday.
Let's move on to this week's targets, keeping in mind that these aren't every week starters. Instead, these are guys that should only be used if you're in some kind of roster emergency.
QB
Case Keenum vs. Oakland -- 43 percent. Keenum has been a pleasant surprise for the Houston Texans, coming on in relief of Matt Schaub , who clearly wasn't getting it done. In three games, he's thrown for 822 yards, seven touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. He's fumbled twice, but that's less of a worry. He's been really good, targeting Andre Johnson often, and he gets an Oakland secondary that's allowed a lot of points to opposing quarterbacks. We project 225 passing yards, two scores, and 20 rushing yards. I like those numbers, and I think 225 is his minimum on Sunday.
Mike Glennon vs. Atlanta -- 16 percent. Glennon has been better than we thought he'd be since taking over for Josh Freeman . He's thrown at least one touchdown in each game he's played, and he faces a Falcons defense that has been just horrible this season. With Mike James now out, I think Glennon gets the passing game started earlier. We've projected 255 yards and two scores, and I think that's very realistic.
RB
Rashad Jennings at Houston -- 45 percent. Jennings has filled in admirably for the oft-injured Darren McFadden . In the last two games, Jennings has run 35 times for 190 yards and a touchdown. The rushing threat posed by Terrelle Pryor has opened up running lanes, making Oakland's running game more dangerous. I think Jennings can hit our projected 100 total yards and a score.
Chris Ogbonnaya at Cincinnati -- 11 percent. Ogbonnaya is a better runner than Willis McGahee at ...
Corner Lockdown - Week 11 fantasysharks.com Thu 11/14/13 8:00 AM
Running Wild
After struggling with injuries and bad players, the New York Giants look to have found their running back for the rest of the season. Andre Brown returned from a broken leg and absolutely chopped up the Oakland Raiders in Week 10. He ran the ball 30, yes 30 times, for 115 yards and a touchdown. He did add one catch for four yards as well. Brown was expected to get some carries, but I'm sure no one saw this kind of activity coming for the oft-injured tailback. If he can stay healthy then he will be a solid flex play the rest of the way for fantasy owners. Brown should be owned in all formats, so if for some strange reason he is available in your league, go add him now because a nice matchup against Green Bay is on the horizon.
Just when you thought the New Orleans backfield couldn't get any more clustered, it has. Mark Ingram had a career game last week against the Dallas Cowboys, running for 145 yards and a score on just 14 carries. He also caught a few passes for 15 yards. The Saints already have been splitting carries between Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles so this only complicates things for owners of any of the three. Thomas still should be getting the most carries and targets, but Sproles steals a lot of targets himself and it looks as if Ingram is going to take some carries away from Thomas. On any given night one of the three backs can go off, but you never really know. At this point, Thomas and Sproles are must-starts, while Ingram is nothing more than a handcuff on the bench. Stay away from any Saints running back this week as New Orleans squares up against a hot San Francisco defense.
Shark Sleepers
Josh McCown, QB, Chicago
With the news that Jay Cutler will be out on Sunday with both ankle and groin injuries, McCown gets the starting nod. He is a very intriguing play this week based on the fact that he's been solid when given the chance to play. It doesn't hurt matters that he has two of the hottest receivers in the league right now in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery . Chicago is playing the inconsistent Baltimore defense and though the Ravens have a decent pass rush, they have been allowing some yards through the air. Throw in the Bears having home field advantage and McCown should be a decent option this week. Between his great receivers and Matt Forte out of the backfield, McCown could flirt with 20 fantasy points in Week 11.
Rishard Matthews, WR, Miami
Matthews came out of nowhere in Week 10, serving as Ryan ...
The Fire Sale - Week 11 fantasysharks.com Tue 11/12/13 9:06 AM
I'm off for one week and everything changes. The Jacksonville Jaguars won a game, the St. Louis Rams destroyed Indianapolis, Wade Phillips is coaching again (although he's 0-2 so that hasn't changed) and Aaron Rodgers isn't quarterbacking the Green Bay Packers anymore. Man, a lot sure can change in two weeks.
Luckily, one thing has remained the same. When I last left you I pointed out how Monte Kiffin was rewriting the history books. Well, two weeks later he continues to put his name in the history books. It was just two weeks ago when I told you that Kiffin's defense set a Dallas Cowboys' franchise record for yards allowed in a game when they gave up 623 to Detroit. It only took Kiffin two weeks to get his name in the record books again. Sunday against New Orleans, Kiffin's defense allowed 626 yards. So a record that has stood since 1991, Kiffin's defense broke twice in three weeks.
Having his name in the Cowboys' record books isn't enough for Kiffin, though. Earlier in the year he set an NFL record for allowing four quarterbacks to throw for 400 yards against his defense ( Drew Brees came eight yards short of adding to that record). On Sunday night, the Saints recorded 40 first downs against Dallas, once again putting Kiffin's name in the record books.
As a Dallas fan of more than 30 years I would like to thank Jerry Jones for hiring this record-setting coach. In just 10 weeks, Kiffin has set two franchise and two NFL records for defensive futility. Like I said, it's nice to know that while some things change, some things remain the same. Kiffin is currently the worst football coach on the planet. Well, at least since his son was fired.
Now on with "The Fire Sale" ...
Going Up
Case Keenum, QB, Houston -- Keenum had a tougher time against the blitzing Arizona defense on Sunday but he still threw three touchdown passes. In three starts, Keenum has now thrown for 822 yards, seven touchdowns and zero interceptions.
This guy is like me when I played all-time quarterback in backyard football games. I would just chuck the ball down the field on fly routes. Talk about the exact opposite of Matt Schaub . Schaub was the king of throwing to 12 different tight ends and checking down to running backs.
It's still way too early to know if Keenum is a long-term answer for the Texans or if defenses will catch up to him, but fantasy owners don't really care about that stuff. If you play in redraft leagues you live in the now, and, at the ...
Risers and Fallers - Week 6 fantasysharks.com Fri 10/11/13 6:00 AM
C.J. Spiller - At what point do owners just say "to hell with him" and give him a permanent seat on the fantasy bench? If they haven't already, this should be the last straw. After six chances we're no longer looking for signs of progress or optimistic feelings. We're looking for results or it's time to turn elsewhere for production. Chances are if you selected Spiller, your win-loss record reflects it. If you want to stay competitive through the meat of the season you can't afford to wave a white flag week-in and week-out at RB1. This is it for Spiller. Put up or sit down.
Justin Blackmon - After sitting out the first four weeks of the season, Blackmon burst back onto the fantasy scene with 100-plus yards and a score. Adding to the explosiveness of Blackmon is the fact that Blaine Gabbert could find himself on the bench for the rest of the year if Chad Henne can find success. Henne is an upgrade over Gabbert in every aspect of quarterbacking, most importantly, in arm strength. Blackmon finds himself now ranked amongst the top-10 at the wide receiver. If he can put up another strong game he could find himself holding onto that ranking for the rest of the season.
Matt Schaub - The Houston quarterback is a stones throw away from following in Eli Manning's footsteps. In fact, unlike Manning, he could actually face the threat of being replaced. Manning has the luxury of being as awful as he would like without the threat of being benched. Schaub, however, is backed up by a fan favorite in T.J. Yates, who has stepped in for Schaub in previous years while playing better than most would have expected. He's certainly not the second coming, but with how good the Texans defense is supposed to be, the offense could work more around a game-manager at quarterback and less of a game-winning quarterback. Schaub has to avoid turnovers, particularly pick-sixes, in order to remain a starter and hold onto his already diminished fantasy value.
Wes Welker - Given how amazing the play of Peyton Manning has been to start the year, it's not surprising to see Welker's performance lost in the background. It's not surprising, but it is unfortunate, given that he's already blown away the touchdown totals that most would have projected for him to begin the year. Now he has a chance to not only make people look silly but he has the opportunity to make them look flat out stupid. If Welker stays on this pace, there is no denying he'll lead the league in receiving touchdowns. His ...
JL's Observation Deck - Week 6 fantasysharks.com Thu 10/10/13 9:06 AM
Fantasy football, believe it or not, is an emotional game. Managers will change their value and perception of a certain player based on a couple factors, including their most recent performance, and more importantly, their performance when playing for their own team. If managers in your league suffer from the endowment effect - valuing their own players much more than the consensus - then it will make it difficult to make a trade; but you can't be sure until you try.
Steps to becoming a contender -
1. Gauge the value perceived by the owner of Arian Foster.
Foster complained about the potential 50/50 split between him and Ben Tate and the coaches responded by giving him his normal workload back. He is not only clearly the featured back, but actually has shown to be much less worn down than even I expected he might be coming off such a large workload. The scary thing about him, he has already played Tennessee, Seattle, Baltimore and San Francisco yet still has performed well without having any of the preseason to work out the kinks. With the Houston Texans expected to lean on the running game going forward due to Matt Schaub 's inconsistencies, and the fact that the Texans still get Jacksonville twice, Indianapolis twice, Denever, St. Louis and Oakland on the schedule; Foster is easily a top-five running back going forward. And, he has just as good a chance as anybody to score the most points going forward from the running back position.
2. See if the manager of Alshon Jeffery is trying to sell high.
If that manager is trying to ‘sell high,' he is making a mistake because Jeffery has not only earned the trust of Jay Cutler , but he won't ever earn the double teams that Brandon Marshall sees at times. Cutler has been trained by coach Marc Trestman to take what the defense gives and Cutler will continue to do that by hooking up with the much improved second-year man out of South Carolina. Jeffery might not have another 200-yard receiving day, but consistent performances can be expected with his role in the offense now. Expect top-20 production from him from this point forward.
3. This is an obvious one, but not enough people do it - offer as many 2-for-1 trades as you can.
This is the deepest crop of receivers the league has ever seen due to it being a passing league. If you can package a middle-of-the-pack running back like Alfred Morris or Knowshon Moreno with a solid wide receiver and acquire an elite player, absolutely do it and don't...