The Prognosticator - Week 11 fantasysharks.com Thu 11/14/13 8:06 PM 1 Comment
The Titans are tough to play at home. I realize they've lost Jake Locker for the season but Matt Hasselbeck makes a terrific backup. The Titans have been an energetic group as of late, expect nothing less here. The Colts will struggle a bit which is an uncustomary position for them. The blueprint on how to get after them was put forth by the Rams last week for all the world to see. Steer clear of your Colts, the Titans will do a nice job of locking them up.
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Free Agency Analysis As It Happens dynastyfootballwarehou... Sun 3/17/13 5:00 PM
Updated at 2:30 PM on 3/19. Matt Hasselbeck, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ben Watson Analysis Added. Ya...it's been slowFree Agency is an exciting time in the NFL. Players are added and dropped in rapid fire fashion. Here is a complete list for you to keep up with all the happenings and how they will affect your fantasy football team. Keep coming back as I will continually update this list as big time players ink their new deals. For more complete analysis, keep an eye out for specialized articles written by my fellow DFW writers. Follow me on Twitter (@LGrilli88) for ever more updates as they happen.Enjoy!
Rock And A Hard Place - Week 14 fantasysharks.com Fri 12/7/12 10:00 AM
Below, I'll list the player, their week 14 matchup, and the percentage of leagues in which he is owned according to our friends at fleaflicker.com.
DISCLAIMER:
The hope is that you don't find yourself in a situation like this. The hope is that you dodge the bullet. But hope won't help you come Sunday.
Let's move on to this week's targets, keeping in mind that these aren't every week starters. Instead, these are guys that should only be used if you're in some kind of roster emergency, whether it be related to bye weeks or injuries.
QB
Brandon Weeden vs KC -- 22%. Weeden has been better than you'd thing, especially lately. Last week against Oakland, Weeden threw for 364 yards. While he threw just one touchdown to two interceptions, he's starting to make defenses pay when they attempt to load up against Trent Richardson. The Chiefs seem to give up 20+ points every week to opposing quarterbacks, and with Weeden improving, I like him even better in the dog pound in Cleveland. The FantasySharks.com staff has projected him for 250 yards and a score, and I like him to surpass those conservative numbers.
Colin Kaepernick vs MIA -- 42%. Kaepernick had a hiccup last week against a beatable Rams defense. I suppose it's to be expected for a young quarterback, although I'm not happy with how much he struggled against a fairly average pass defense, I still like him as he's leading a competent offense. Add to it his rushing ability and goal line potential, and there's a lot to be optimistic about. If you're looking for a fill-in or need a better option or matchup, the Fantasy Sharks staff projects 215 yards passing, 40 yards rushing, and two scores (one rushing).
RB
Bilal Powell @JAC -- 10%. Powell and running mate Shonn Greene are now splitting carries. With Mark Sanchez inexplicably still under center, the two backs will get plenty of work against Jacksonville's porous run defense. While Greene is still probably a slightly better option, I do like Powell quite a bit. He'll get enough work to be productive, and the Jaguars have given up plenty of yards on the ground. I like him to reach the 60 yards and touchdown projected on our site.
Montell Owens vs NYJ -- 4%. Who? I know. Look, our site even states that even without Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings active, Owens is still a desperation play at best. That said, he'll start at running back for the Jaguars against a Jets defense that has struggled all season against the run. Last week was only ...
Rock And A Hard Place - Week 8 fantasysharks.com Fri 10/26/12 9:00 AM
Four teams are on a bye in Week 8: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Houston. Between those four teams, we have four starting caliber quarterbacks and several viable running backs, receivers, and tight ends. Then there's DeMarco Murray, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Greg Jennings who are hurt, with many others questionable.
Below, I'll list the player, their Week 8 matchup, and the percentage of leagues in which he is owned according to our friends at fleaflicker.com.
DISCLAIMER:
The hope is that you don't find yourself in a situation like this. The hope is that you dodge the bullet. But hope won't help you come Sunday.
Let's move on to this week's targets, keeping in mind that these aren't every week starters. Instead, these are guys that should only be used if you're in some kind of roster emergency, whether it be related to bye weeks or injuries.
QB
Sam Bradford vs NE -- 41%. Bradford has been a litmus test for passing defenses. His performance is indicative of his opposition. Against Chicago and Seattle, he really struggled. Against Washington and Miami, he played very well. New England has been giving up points to opposing quarterbacks in bunches, so I expect Bradford to put up solid numbers. While I don't know about the 270 yards and three touchdowns we've projected for him, something like 250 and two scores should do just fine.
Matt Hasselbeck vs IND -- 16%. Hasselbeck has filled in admirably for injured starter Jake Locker. He's put up enough points to warrant being a decent second stringer or a bye week fill-in. Over the past few weeks, the Titans have actually been scoring a bit, and Hasselbeck has been careful with the football. I think he surpasses the 230 yards and a touchdown in our projections.
RB
Jonathan Dwyer vs WAS -- 42%. Dwyer finally displayed some of the running skills we'd seen back in college, leading Ben Roethlisberger to even compare him to former Steelers' running back Jerome Bettis. He ran hard, seeming to get stronger as the game progressed, breaking off a 32-yard run to seal the deal late. I'm a big fan of his, and with Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman still slowed by injury, look for Dwyer to get another start this week. Despite the Redskins tough run defense, I like him to outperform our 75-yard projection.
Daryl Richardson vs NE -- 30%. Richardson has been a pleasant surprise in St. Louis. While Steven Jackson is still very productive, Richardson has been cutting into his touches. Jackson will end up the goal ...
Monday Morning Takeaways -- Week 7 fantasysharks.com Mon 10/22/12 1:55 PM 1 Comment
Seattle 6, San Francisco 13
Seahawks
The Seahawks are easier to evaluate than buttering a piece of toast. Every week in this space you'll find the same sentiments; "start the Seattle DST, start Marshawn Lynch, handcuff Robert Turbin and leave everyone else alone." Week seven was no different as two NFC West foes went to battle in a classic defensive slugfest. With a rookie quarterback under center, coupled with very conservative play calling, no member of the Seattle passing game has proven worthy of a roster spot.
49ers
San Francisco's fantasy production nearly mirrors that of Seattle; start Frank Gore, start the 49ers DST and handcuff Kendall Hunter. The lone difference is Vernon Davis. Coming into this game as the second highest scoring fantasy tight end, Davis was completely shutdown, not seeing a single target. Although highly unnerving, this is more of a testament to the Seattle defense than Davis himself. Also, as the 49ers took to the ground through much of the second half, Davis was used more in the blocking scheme than the passing game. As the most athletic tight end in the game, Davis remains a lineup lock.
It's worth noting that in the absence of Mario Manningham, stepped Randy Moss into the starting lineup. Even though he was given an expanded number of reps, the 49ers only targeted Moss four times, with zero deep passes. Those holding out hope can safely drop the future Hall-of-Famer.
A side story exiting this wrestling match was the amount of money swayed by the decision of Jim Harbaugh to decline a last minute safety. My only question is, "Why bet the game, when the over/under was 38 points?" Money in the bank.
Tennessee 35, Buffalo 34
Titans
Hello, hello. Welcome to the party Chris Johnson. With 18 carries totaling 195 yards and two touchdowns, Johnson ripped through the porous Buffalo defense finally displaying his breakaway speed including a scoring run of 83 yards in classic 2K style. Up next are the 29th ranked Colts rush defense. Yee hah!
On the downside for Johnson owners, it is Jamie Harper's emergence as the Titans goal line back stealing two short yardage touchdowns. With Javon Ringer done for the foreseeable future, Harper is the now the primary handcuff to Johnson.
With four touchdowns turned in the by the ground game, Matt Hasselbeck and the Titans passing attack were limited in what should have been a very favorable matchup. Nate Washington led the way for Tennessee receiving core with 43 yards highlighted ...
In The Spotlight - Week 6 fantasysharks.com Mon 10/15/12 1:00 PM 1 Comment
Week 6 Fantasy Headlines:
· Some Fantasy Studs Showed Up, Some Didn't
· Aaron Rodgers Carves Up Texans With Six TD Passes
· Shonn Greene Ground-and-Pounds the Colts
· A Long Overdue Breakout Game From Dez Bryant
· Russell Wilson Upends Patriots With Last-Minute TD Pass
· Bradshaw, Giants Pound The 49ers at Candlestick
· Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson Rescue the Lions
· RGIII Shreds Vikings Defense
GAME SUMMARIES & FANTASY COMMENTARY:
Bye week: Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars & New Orleans Saints
Thursday Night Game:
Tennessee Titans 26 (2-4) | Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (2-3)
Fantasy Focus -- Titans: Welcome back, Kenny Britt (4-62-1 on 11 targets). Sure, he dropped a few passes -- blame that on rust -- but Britt is obviously ready to be used as a regular fantasy starter again. The 37-year-old Matt Hasselbeck (25/44 for 290-1-1) doesn't have a big arm anymore, but he still can play competently. Kendall Wright (6-71-0 on eight targets) topped all Titans receivers in this contest. The rookie has scored in two of his last three games. Nate Washington (3-57-0 on 10 targets) still hasn't caught more than three passes in a game so far this season. Despite the favorable matchup for Jared Cook (4-54-0 on four targets) he was a non-factor, salvaging his fantasy outing with a 25-yard catch late in the game. The enigmatic Chris Johnson (19-91-0 rushing and 4-23-0 receiving) logged his second-best rushing game of the season against what had been billed as a good Pittsburgh Steelers run defense.
Fantasy Tips: Jake Locker (shoulder) could return next week. Although Locker has favored Washington in the past, don't let that scare you away from playing Britt. His presence should draw the attention of the top cover corners on opposing defenses and open things up for Washington and Cook, so don't give up on either player yet. Wright produces solid numbers with either quarterback under center; he has caught five or more passes in five of six games played. Johnson is a difficult player to read. He struggles in the easy matchups but produces in the tougher ones.
Fantasy Focus -- Steelers: After breathing some much-needed life into Pittsburgh's anemic ground game last week with his 14-81-1 effort, Rashard Mendenhall (6-6-0 rushing and 1-11-0 receiving) went down early with an Achilles' tendon injury. Isaac Redman (5-14-0 rushing and 4-105-0 receiving) left in the third quarter because of an ankle injury. Ben Roethlisberger (24/40 ...
Thursday Night Lights fantasysharks.com Thu 10/11/12 9:06 AM
This week you see a struggling Tennessee offense take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in Tennessee. In years past, the dominant Pittsburgh defense was one that you hated to see your players face. That isn't the case today, and, frankly, without a healthy Troy Polamalu, there isn't much to worry about. The fact is that Polamalu is not healthy and has been ruled out. While one player doesn't make an entire team, Polamalu is one that you have to account for at all times because of his speed and quickness to the ball. That bodes well for the Tennessee passing game this week. That being said, let's get to what the Titans will do when they have the ball.
WHEN TENNESSEE HAS THE BALL
It's going to be a long day for the offensive line and for Chris Johnson. I expect that regardless of how many carries Johnson gets. He will struggle to break 50 yards rushing. I own Johnson in one dynasty league and have a love/hate relationship with him at the moment. I can't get enough for him in a trade, and I'm not dropping him until he can't physically play the game. I have come too far with him since 2008 when folks told me that LenDale White owned the job and Johnson wouldn't be relevant. I laughed pretty hard that year. This year the tables have turned since Johnson isn't the force of yesterday, last year, or should I say two years ago. He represents some value in space as a receiver with his speed, but the Steelers will take that away.
The offensive line looks like a unit that just got together. They don't execute and are a much better pass blocking unit than anything. They will stall you for a couple of seconds at best, but they aren't going to manhandle you. I look for Matt Hasselbeck to throw quick hitters most of the game because that's the only thing he will be able to do without laying on his back looking into the sky. Kendall Wright has looked fantastic in the last three contests and has been targeted a whopping 30 times. In case you are wondering, that is near double the amount of targets over any other player. Jared Cook should have mild success because of his speed against linebackers. I expect that Nate Washington and Kenny Britt will get 10-15 looks between them. I hardly think the Titans will lie down, but I don't expect more than 24 points from the offensive unit. Hasselbeck will have 200 yards and a pair of scores plus a few turnovers due to pressure.
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
I was surprised to see that Rashard Mendenhall's agility has come ...
Against the Odds - Week 6 (Thursday Edition) fantasysharks.com Thu 10/11/12 9:06 AM
This week's lines are from USAToday.com (as of Wednesday night).
Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (+6)
The Steelers (2-2) squeaked out a win last week over the Philadelphia Eagles 16-14. The run game seems to have turned around with the return of RB Rashard Mendenhall who made his debut this season after tearing his ACL last year. He rushed for 81 yards and a TD on 14 carries.
The Titans (1-4) were blown out at Minnesota last week, 30-7. Backup QB Matt Hasselbeck started due to Jake Locker re-injuring his shoulder Week 4 in Houston. Hasselbeck threw for 200 yards and one TD while also throwing a pick. RB Chris Johnson had another bad outing, rushing 15 times for 24 yards.
In the Titans' four losses this season, they have been outscored 140-44.
Their defense is ranked last in points allowed (36.2) and ranks near the bottom in all other defensive categories. The offense isn't much better, they rank 26th in total yards per game (305), and 30th in rush yards per game (65.4).
The Steelers defense should be able to shutdown the Titans. They rank 5th in total yards allowed per game (280) and are holding opposing QBs to 185 yards per game (3rd in the league). Mendenhall's return will rejuvenate the Steelers offense while the defense will shutdown RB Chris Johnson and the pass game.
Expect to see another blowout loss by the Titans.
Gimme the Steelers minus the points.
Please make sure to check back Friday for my 4-Star picks and my take on the rest of the NFL schedule.
SEASON RECAP (W-L-T)
4 Stars: 5-5-1
3 Stars: 10-6
2 Stars: 3-4-1
1 Star: 3-4
Total Record: 21-19-2
Audibles: Insights going into Week 5 fantasysharks.com Wed 10/3/12 9:06 AM
The Kansas City Chiefs have said that Matt Cassel is their choice at quarterback no matter how bad he plays. Right now he is really stinking up the joint, but rest assured that no matter how bad he is, the reason that they don't look into benching him is because they have nothing else. I mean absolutely nothing.
Brady Quinn is a quarterback in name only. People remember him as a signal caller from college. He never lived up to his hype. I have a news flash for you...Cassel on his worst day has more chance of getting a ball to the target than Quinn.
The main problem is that Cassel's stats get padded after the game is out of reach. Dwayne Bowe makes a living out of garbage time yards and touchdowns.
The unfortunate fact of fantasy football is that the stats still count. Jamaal Charles is the only player that I have seen that has enough skills to be an every week starter. I don't see him lasting the entire season if they continue to force feed him the ball. Charles has 50 carries and nine catches in the last two weeks. This week he faces Ray Lewis and company at home. There is no garbage time in this game, folks. I'm going to see a true stat line this week, and it's about time. You can click your red sparkly shoes in Kansas City while saying, "There's no place like home," Dorothy.
I acknowledge that Kansas City is a tough place to play. It absolutely isn't going to matter this week, and you heard it here. I'm all too happy to tell you that Baltimore dominates this one.
Chris Johnson's stock just went from all-time low to wait-and-see. The change at quarterback to Matt Hasselbeck helps Johnson's value. I own Johnson myself in one league and will personally wait until Week 8 to use him at home against Indianapolis. I love his speed but hate the inconsistencies that surround him. Johnson is not out of the fantasy doghouse quite yet.
The Cincinnati Bengals are really looking to establish the weapons around A.J. Green. The fact remains if Green doesn't catch a ball and run it in, he is not getting across the stripe at all.
Green is drawing all kinds of attention near the red zone. Andy Dalton looked in the direction of Armon Binns three times on one drive in the end zone. While none of you may find this situation intriguing, I do. I'm in the belief that five targets can be enough to put up decent numbers if the conversion rate is there. Last week it wasn't, but in my opinion by seasons end you will see it.
I expect that this also ...
Rock and a Hard Place: Week 1 fantasysharks.com Fri 9/7/12 7:30 AM
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There are times during a season when you look at the waiver wire or list of free agents and end up telling yourself, "They might be in three-receiver sets a lot and he could make a few catches," or "He caught four touchdowns of three or fewer yards last season, and one of them was against this team," or "If the injury-prone guy ahead of him on the depth chart gets hurt, he's a lock for five points."
In situations like this, fantasy owners will look for a diamond in the rough. When they don't find it, they go back looking for a name they recognize. When they don't find that, they end up rationalizing ridiculous situations. Because, if six things break perfectly, they're golden.
I've been there. I've done that. I've picked guys up in a 10-team league that shouldn't be owned in a 16-team league. In fact, years ago, in my first ever preseason draft, I picked a dead guy. There's no amount of rationalization that will help that guy.
Each week, I'll take a look at a group of guys that might typically be available who I think could provide some value to owners that are in a tight spot. It's important to note that I am not saying go pick this guy up at the expense of depth on your roster. Instead, think of them as "in case of emergency, break glass" type of guys.
Jake Locker, QB , Tennessee. Locker was given the starting nod in Tennessee because there was very little to gain from starting Matt Hasselbeck. Locker is the future of the franchise. He's younger, with a stronger arm and more mobility. In Week 1, he faces a New England defense that struggled last season against the pass. While coach Bill Belichick is known as a defensive mastermind, Locker has a chance to put up decent numbers, and, if for some reason you find yourself needing a quarterback, he has the upside to provide some value.
Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco. Smith impressed last year in his first season under Jim Harbaugh. He completed better than 60 percent of his passes for 3,100-plus yards, 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. San Francisco didn't need him to be Eli Manning. The 49ers needed a game manager. They wanted to run the ball effectively, protect the football, and ask Smith to make two or three plays a game. This season it'll be more of the same. Smith shouldn't really be your go-to guy, but he should have some throwing lanes against Green Bay this week. Given the firepower on the other sideline, Smith will look to press the issue, and with his bulked up...