Good Call/Bad Call: Week 6 fantasysharks.com Sat 10/15/11 9:06 AM
There are a lot of injuries occurring on in the NFL now that the season is in full swing. Whether it's just a minor injury or something that's kept your player out for a while, you should think about how this injury is affecting the player's performance. Just because that player hasn't been missing games, missing practices can hurt them as well. When a player hasn't seen the practice field in two weeks, that player has a slight decrease in their conditioning. These guys are elite athletes and their floor for conditioning is higher than yours and mine, but playing against other elite athletes means that you need to be in top condition. A wide receiver that is running 40-yard sprints down the sideline on every play needs to be just as fast on the first snap of the game as the last. Not having practiced for two weeks can really hurt the amount of effort they can put forth for 60 straight minutes.
As a general rule, if a player has missed more than one week of practice, I'll sit him until he's been back at practice for a week. This can be seen with guys like Arian Foster and Dez Bryant this season. These guys have been putting up points, but they're not doing what you thought they were going to be doing if they had been at practice for a full week and fully healthy. A mediocre player that hasn't practiced all week is probably not going to get his normal workload for the game. Less snaps means less chances to touch the ball, and that means less points on your roster. Paying attention to how many practices your players have missed can help you make those tough roster decisions when the time comes.
Now on to the picks for the week:
Quarterback
Andy Dalton will make a nice bye-week fill-in this week. Indianapolis has been weak on defense all year. Dalton has put up decent numbers against weaker defenses such as Denver and Buffalo, who both rank in the bottom 10 against quarterbacks. The Colts have given up at least 220 yards and a touchdown against every quarterback they've faced this year. Having the Colts who rank in the bottom 10 and having the game in Cincinnati should give Dalton enough to fill in for your quarterback while he's out.
Jay Cutler could also make a nice bye-week fill-in with a soft matchup against Minnesota in Chicago. Minnesota allows an average of 245 yards and both Matt Cassel and Josh Freeman have thrown touchdowns against the Vikings. Cutler has thrown a touchdown in all but one game this year. He should have no problem getting at ...
Draft Day Disappointments fantasysharks.com Fri 10/14/11 9:06 AM
One of the most difficult decisions that fantasy owners face as the season wears on is what to do with underperforming players that they picked with a high-round draft pick. Veteran owners know that after Week 1 draft position is inconsequential and player rankings are fluid week to week. Here is look at a few of the players whose early season performances have not matched their lofty draft position and what you can expect from them the rest of the season.
Josh Freeman (QB11, average draft position 77.52) -- Many fantasy owners expected 2011 to be the year that Freeman catapulted in to the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks; five weeks and several underwhelming performances later and Freeman is being labeled a bust. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-2 but their offense has yet to get going, scoring only three points in a Week 5 trouncing versus the San Francisco 49ers. A sluggish LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams' sophomore slump have plagued the Buccaneers and hindered Freeman's ascension.
With Blount likely giving way to Earnest Graham this week due to an injury, the Buccaneers may be forced to take to the air often in a shootout with the New Orleans Saints. The Week 6 matchup will be a good barometer as to whether Freeman will get over the hump this year or continue to be a disappointment. If Freeman and Williams can start to click they will have the opportunity to build off of their success with another favorable matchup with the Chicago Bears in Week 7 and a rematch with the New Orleans Saints in Week 9, after a bye. The 49ers' blowout was Freeman's first real stinker of the year. Keep a close eye on the matchup with the Saints this week and how Freeman bounces back before you decide to dump him. The talent is there, but the on field performances aren't. Freeman is creeping towards being droppable in most leagues.
Kevin Kolb (QB16, 110.4) -- Kolb was nearly as sought after as a backup fantasy quarterback as he was by the Arizona Cardinals in the offseason. He opened the season with a solid performance against the Carolina Panthers before several poor outings. The idea of drafting Kolb and then trading him when his stock was high is probably not going to happen this season. If you have a solid starter it is time to dump Kolb and look for a favorable bye-week matchup.
There are several problems for Kolb in Arizona. The abbreviated offseason didn't give him time with a new team of receivers, coaching staff or offensive scheme. Add in a ...
Against the Odds - Week 6 fantasysharks.com Thu 10/13/11 9:06 AM
Let's review how accurate Vinnie has been against the spread, five weeks in:
14-9-1
On to Week 6!
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4.5): Tampa Bay's defensive struggles have had at least as much to do with the team's disappointing start as those of quarterback Josh Freeman. Things appeared to be getting a little better, especially in regard to the defensive line, but you just about have to throw stats out the window when this year's Colts are the opponent. We're talking about a run defense that yielded over 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns in San Francisco, a week ago. Look for the Saints' offense to achieve some balance, Sunday, on the way to putting 30+ on the scoreboard. Freeman has played some really good football versus New Orleans recently, by the way, but so has Drew Brees (versus Tampa Bay). It doesn't help matters that LeGarrette Blount will likely be inactive.
Gimme the Saints minus the points.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (Even): Sounds like Philly is a popular road team to pick this week, based on how the talking heads are assessing this NFC East match up and based on the line. Guess we're to believe Washington's win/loss record through four games is a fluke? Guess we're to believe Michael Vick and the Eagles will reverse their slump, on the road and against a team coming out of its bye week, a team that plays 'em at least twice a year? Yeah, well Vinnie doesn't think so. LeSean McCoy runs into the brick wall that is Washington's run defense this week, while Vick fails to get much going in the passing game. Count on whomever runs the ball for Washington to put up some numbers while looking good in the process. The nay sayers aren't going away, Andy Reid.
Gimme the Redskins.
Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders (-5.5): Going strictly by the numbers, Colt McCoy and his supporting cast are in for a big game. Oakland's is not a quality pass defense by any stretch. The Raiders' run defense has been stout in some games but very, very generous in others. Jason Campbell is connecting with at least one of his wide receivers for a score on a weekly basis, but has his work cut out for him against a respectable Browns secondary. Call it a gut feeling, if you will, but Vinnie isn't focused so much on any of that as he is that this represents Oakland's first home game since the passing of Al Davis. Cleveland is going to lose by plenty in the Black Hole, Sunday.
Gimme the Raiders minus the points.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago ...
Five Week 5 Gems to Help Owners Win fantasysharks.com Fri 10/7/11 10:45 AM 11 Comments
Five Week 5 Gems to Help you Win
A quarter of the fantasy football season is finished. We now have a fairly good idea what most players are worth. Now that we have a much better understanding of things, it's time to grow a pair and make some bold moves to help you make the playoffs and win a Championship. Here are 5 gems to help you take your team to the Promised Land.
1) Time to Trade for The Sanchize
I've actually been a hater for most of Mark Sanchez's fantasy football career. Over the last two seasons, he's thrown for 29 touchdowns and 33 interceptions. He's played his best football in the playoffs but that doesn't help fantasy owners during the season. In a weird sense, he's like the opposite of Tony Romo, whose only great in the regular season, which is all fantasy owners care about.
This year has been different though. For Sanchez's first 3 games, he averaged close to 300 passing yards, totaling 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions plus a fumble for the Turnover Machine. Still, those are impressive numbers, regardless of all the turnovers, 300 passing yards and two touchdowns per week are solid numbers. He's easily having the best season of his career as Shonn Greene continues to underwhelm and the Jets fail to establish a consistent running game.
Sanchez's value is low now because of historically poopy performance against the Ravens last week. He threw for 119 passing yards with 500 turnovers (346 interceptions and 164 fumbles). The game was nationally televised and most of the fantasy world looked at Sanchez and thought to themselves, "That's the Sanchez I know. He still stinks."
But that's incorrect. The reality is that Sanchez has been a very good fantasy Quarterback this year and things are look good for the future. He plays the horrendously bad Patriots defense this weekend. After that he plays Miami (30th ranked against the pass) and he later has two games against Buffalo, one more against New England and Denver as well.
Sanchez's value is going to skyrocket after his gaudy numbers against the Patriots this weekend. Now is the time for owners to make a move.
2) Tampa in Trouble
After the Buccaneers' fantasy football triumph over the hapless Colts, owners were finally starting to get excited about the Bucs as a viable fantasy team again. Not so fast, my friends. The Bucs were so full of fantasy goodness against the horrid Colts that even Preston Parker is being started in some lineups this weekend. Raise your hand if you knew who Preston ...
Good Call/Bad Call: Week 5 fantasysharks.com Fri 10/7/11 8:30 AM
A league mate of mine and I were having a conversation on Monday morning about how the guy in our league who has Wes Welker is going to blow everyone else out of the water and his chances to win our league. Now the guy with Welker on his team is 4-0 and has a good team, but I don't think that he's that unbeatable. My buddy thinks the guy with Welker should win it all, I say Welker will slow down. Here's why.
Has Welker been amazing so far? Yes. Are the New England Patriots a good team? Yep. Will Welker slow down soon? Definitely. First thing that helps Welker put up big numbers is having Bill Belichick as a coach. Belichick doesn't take his foot off pedal during blowouts. He keeps his guys firing on all cylinders until the final play. Secondly, so far New England has played at Miami, San Diego, at Buffalo, and at Oakland. The only defense that I would pick out of those four to be in the top half of the league in total defense is San Diego. What did Welker do, at home, against San Diego? He had 11 targets, seven catches, 81 yards, and no touchdowns. A good game, but not the fantasy team carrying numbers that he put up against lesser defenses. Coming up in his next eight games, Welker has to go against the New York Jets twice, the Dallas Cowboys, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New York Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles, and then has a bye. Those sound like much tougher games than the cupcakes he's had to play early this season. Third, it's unusual to have a slot receiver and a tight end as the No. 1 and No. 2 receivers on a football team. Defensive coordinators will start scheming things to stop the Patriots. Don't get me wrong -- I still see Welker in the Top 5 for catches and yards, and probably the No. 1 guy, but I don't see him carrying teams to championships like Arian Foster did last year, or Chris Johnson the year before.
Now on to the calls for the week:
Quarterback
Getting to play New England on your home turf is an easy matchup for a quarterback, and this week Mark Sanchez gets that lucky game. Sanchez has put up modest numbers so far this year, but the Patriots' weak secondary should give up tons of yards and points for your roster. New England ranks 31st against quarterbacks, so Sanchez should have an easy game. As another plus, if he can't put up points for you this week, you can drop him off your roster, because you know he won't get a better opportunity. Play Sanchez with confidence this week.
Josh Freeman hasn't looked like the sleeper pick...
Waiver Wire Wonders fantasysharks.com Tue 10/4/11 6:50 AM 6 Comments
Despite looking high and low, I'm forced to ditch the 'Smokin' Hot' category this week. From time to time this happens, nothing out there available that I feel strongly about. A few guys I see as Solid Pickups, and a half dozen or so are On the Radar...but based on my analysis, nothing Smokin' Hot. This doesn't mean you should abandon this week's waiver wire. The bye weeks are starting up, so depth is going to be tested. If you have room at the bottom of your roster, make a move if for nothing else than to keep players away from others in your league.
On to this weeks Waiver Wonders...
Solid Pickups
WR Victor Cruz, New York Giants
Cruz backed up his 100+ yard, two touchdown breakout effort in week three by catching six balls for 98 yards this past week against the Cardinals. Still owned in less than 50% of leagues, I've seen enough to recommend him as a solid pickup. There have been discussions about moving Cruz into the slot once Mario Manningham returns, so we very much like Cruz's long term fantasy potential.
RB Stevan Ridley, New England
In what many consider to be a breakout performance, Ridley lit up the Raiders for close to a hundred yards and a touchdown on only ten carries. I have my expectations of Ridley set a little lower, though he is currently performing the best out of all the options the Patriots currently have. With Danny Woodhead dinged up a bit, Ridley was able to split time with BenJarvus Green-Ellis against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Bill Belichick, like Mike Shanahan, has a funny way of handling running backs from one week to the next. Next week it could be Green-Ellis, or it could be an entirely aerial show where New England doesn't bother with the running game. At some point, Danny Woodhead will be back handling third down. A crowded situation that is going to be tough to read, if you have the roster room and don't need to give up much to pick him up, then Ridley is worth adding.
On the Radar
WR Preston Parker, Tampa Bay
Parker found the end zone this past week, catching five passes for 70 yards, which is enough to get noticed and added to the radar. His single catch performance in week three confirms that Parker's numbers will vary from week to week. Filling in for the injured Sammie Stroughter in the slot, Josh Freeman looked in Parker's direction on several occasions so the potential for 5-7 catches per week is a possibility.
WR Jacoby Jones, Houston
Owned in only 28% of leagues, we're tabbing Jones as the...
Buy Low-Sell High fantasysharks.com Tue 9/27/11 9:06 AM 5 Comments
Three weeks is an eternity in fantasy football. For most leagues three weeks represents nearly a quarter of the regular season. Waiver wire adds are sparse, so often the best way to improve your team is by working a trade with another owner in your league. We all know the best trades allow both teams to better themselves, but sometimes a player's value can be skewed by their early season performance. So who are the early season "Buy low-Sell high" candidates?
Buy Low
Chris Johnson-The unusually slow start is all because of Johnson's contract holdout...right? Johnson's shear talent alone suggests that he will break out of his funk soon. The Titans appeared to be committed to getting Johnson involved by calling his number 24 times against a tough Ravens' D in week two. Week three only saw Johnson tally 13 carries against a Broncos' defense that was allowing 135 YPG. Johnson hasn't even totaled 100 yards total this season. Gloomy enough for you? The Chris Johnson owner in your league may be feeling the same way. Despite Matt Hasselbeck's recent passing success the Titans know that they will have to get Johnson and the running game going as the season wears on. Make a move for Johnson, be patient and stash him away until he returns to the form that earned him first round status on draft day.
Mark Ingram
I expect Ingram to have plenty of opportunities to score in a potent Saints' offense. Ingram has yet to explode for the huge rushing numbers that fantasy owners would like to see, but he did manage to get in to the endzone in week three. Darren Sproles was able to sneak in to the endzone in week two on a play that would have been reversed had the officials decided to review it giving Ingram a goal line opportunity that he was drafted to capitalize on. Ingram is an upside play who should develop in to a solid option for you as he gets more acclimated with the Saints' offense.
Josh Freeman
The Bucs have had an odd start to the season. They have had some strange games where they have abandoned their game plan or strength in order to stay in the game and Freeman's fantasy production has suffered. Don't let the disappointment fool you, Freeman hasn't put up a bad game either; he just hasn't registered the stat lines we all envisioned. You could do far worse as injury insurance, a bye week fill in, or a situational starter regardless of your current QB situation.
Sell High
Lance Moore
I know I referenced the Saints' high powered offense as a ...
Against the Odds (2011) - Week 2 fantasysharks.com Fri 9/16/11 2:00 PM 1 Comment
Let's begin by reviewing how accurate Vinnie has been against the spread, through one week:
picks were 2-1
picks were 2-1
On to Week 2, for which Vinnie likes three home teams and three road teams. Time to make some more reliable picks against the odds.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (+3): Dallas' defense limited the Jets to 45 rushing yards Sunday night and will hold up well versus Frank Gore. Good passing teams will hold an advantage over the Cowboys, but San Francisco certainly won't be mistaken for one of those anytime soon. The 49ers have a solid defense in their own right. Following his 4th quarter antics against the Jets, though, Tony Romo will acquit himself just fine at Bill Walsh Field on Sunday.
Gimme the Cowboys minus the points.
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans (+5.5): Conversation around Tennessee's offensive strengths begin and end with Chris Johnson, he of nine carries for 24 rushing yards in Week 1. Whether the Ravens have been taking some notes on how Jacksonville shut Johnson down, or just happen to possess one of the better run stopping units league wide - why not both? - it will be a nigh fruitless day for the Titans speedster. On top of this, Terrell Suggs and his fellow Ravens defenders will apply a wealth of pressure on Matt Hasselbeck. As for when Baltimore has the ball, pencil Ray Rice and Joe Flacco each in for a big game.
Gimme the Ravens minus the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3): The Bucs defense was pretty well dismantled by visiting Detroit a week ago, but will take it to Minnesota in Week 2. Adrian Peterson will get his, no doubt. The real question, for Minnesota, is whether Donovan McNabb can offer a whole lot of something more, after the way he played against San Diego. Though the suspension of defensive tackle Kevin Williams lasts one more game, the Vikings defense is no pushover. Regardless, LeGarrette Blount and Josh Freeman will come through for Tampa Bay.
Gimme the Buccaneers plus the points.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins (-4): Cam Newton deserves a lot of credit for connecting with Steve Smith for those touchdowns and setting the NFL record for passing yards in a rookie debut, but just as notable was the poor play of Arizona's pass defense. Rex Grossman, throwing to some combination of Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, and Fred Davis, is in line for perhaps some really nice numbers. Arizona could potentially keep up in the early going, Larry Fitzgerald the beneficiary of ...
Against the Odds (2011) - Week 1 fantasysharks.com Fri 9/9/11 6:53 AM
Picking games is an interesting task when Week 1 rolls around. Game lines tend to be on the conservative side, with little for experts to go on beyond preseason games and/or games from the previous year. Take heart, though. Vinnie's got you covered.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-3): The absence of Peyton Manning will make all the difference, with this game's line in mind. The enormous amount of resources Houston's organization has spent to address defensive needs doesn't guarantee a shutout of the Colts or anything like that, but it does point to Kerry Collins having a challenge before him. The Texans running game's owning of Indy's defense was well chronicled a year ago, and while Arian Foster isn't a lock to play this time around, one would think Derrick Ward and Ben Tate could get the job done if called upon. Indy's pass defense also doesn't match up so well against Matt Schaub, a cohesive and underrated Texans offensive line, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels.
Gimme the Texans minus the points.
Philadelphia Eagles @ St. Louis Rams (+5): While many are just about ready to hand over the Lombardi trophy to Andy Reid and the Eagles, St. Louis is in prime position to splash 'em with a cold dose of reality. There will be no Philly rout, much to the chagrin of Michael Vick fans and fantasy owners. In fact, what better coach to whup up on his old team than Steve Spagnuolo? The Rams defense is up to the task of manhandling Philly's shaky offensive line, and will give Vick all he can handle. Steven Jackson in particular, meanwhile, is in line for a very productive day running the football.
Gimme the Rams plus the points.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+6.5): Say it with me - all Brady, all evening. Chad Henne and Brandon Marshall have demonstrated some chemistry, nice for Dolphins fans, and Miami's defense can be disruptive to an opponent's running game. No problem. With Miami's pass defense looking vulnerable and considering all the weapons Tom Brady has to throw to, expect the Patriots to have a lot of success passing. Oh, and don't bother expecting much from Reggie Bush, who will find very little room to maneuver with the ball in his hands.
Gimme the Patriots minus the points.
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): Not a division rivalry, but one of the more intriguing games on the slate for this weekend nonetheless. Expect the visiting Lions to perform well offensively, big plays resulting from both running and passing plays. ...