Andrew Luck is historically good. Luck has been putting up gaudy numbers, as he seems to single-handedly carry the Indianapolis Colts, kicking and screaming, across the finish line each week. There's something to be said for the way he's been pulling out wins this year. It's strangely similar of Tim Tebow last season, except for the fact that Luck is, you know, a quarterback. But no matter the score or situation, it always seems like he's going to do something awesome. On Sunday, he threw the Colts back into the game against Detroit, completing just 24-of-54 passes, but totaling 391 yards and four touchdowns, including the game winner as time expired. Sure, he threw three interceptions. He's a rookie after all. But he's having perhaps the greatest first season by a quarterback in history. And it's been amazing to watch.
Greg Jennings will fit in after all. On Sunday, Jennings caught four balls for 46 yards in his return to game action, looking almost all the way back. He still needs to get back in shape a bit, but he'll be productive soon, possibly next week for owners that either held on to him or pounced on him on the waiver wire. In addition, Jordy Nelson exited the game in the first quarter after tweaking his hamstring. For weeks, we've wondered how (or if) Jennings would fit in when he returned. But hamstring injuries, especially in cold weather, are very difficult. With the current playoff picture, the Green Bay Packers will exercise caution with Nelson, meaning Jennings will slide right into his old role.
Chris Johnson is no more than low-end RB2. Johnson might be bipolar. He is either fantastic or dreadful. In Week 13, he was closer to dreadful than fantastic, totaling just 51 yards on 13 carries and adding 20 receiving yards. He's had four games of more than 125 yards rushing and another four with less than 25 yards on the ground. Despite his feast-or-famine 2012, his poor numbers will be masked by the big games. If you hear 12 games, 993 yards, 4.9 yards per carry, and four touchdowns, you're thinking a dependable top tier back. But ask his owners if they'd rather have Johnson or Frank Gore. Or Trent Richardson. Or even Shonn Greene. First round picks are supposed to be trustworthy in the playoffs, and I just don't believe in Johnson.
Cam Newton appears to have regained his 2011 form. Maybe I was expecting a sophomore slump, but I didn't think Newton was going to be all that great this year. Back in August, he was typically the fourth or fifth quarterback off the board, and at that point, I figured I'd wait for one of the Mannings, Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Ryan. But in the past two weeks, Newton has thrown and run like last year's version. With 232 passing yards, three scores, and another 78 yards on the ground, Newton followed up his performance on Monday Night Football against the rudderless Philadelphia Eagles with another big game against the Kansas City Chiefs. I know it was the Eagles and Chiefs, but it still counts.
Michael Crabtree has turned into a dependable receiver. This is another development that surprises me. Crabtree was the man in college, but a lengthy holdout, immaturity and an inability to get on the field had limited Crabtree's value. But those days are long gone. On Sunday, he caught seven passes for 101 yards. In the past five weeks, he has 23 receptions for 300 yards and four scores. While there's still plenty of room to develop, he is clearly a staple in the San Francisco passing attack.
Pump the brakes on Brandon Myers. I actually like Myers. But before we get too crazy, let's look at his Week 13 eruption. He finished with 14 catches on 15 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. What makes me nervous about him is that he only had eight catches for 57 yards prior to the 3:30 mark in the fourth quarter. On the last drive of the game, he caught six passes for 73 yards and a score. You can look at that fact in a few different ways. First, "Stats are stats, so who cares?!" Or how about, "He's clearly a part of the passing offense, Carson Palmer is looking his way, and the Oakland Raiders will be playing from behind a lot." But the one I'm going with is, "That probably isn't going to happen again." But that's just me. Just promise me you'll be realistic with your expectations.
Ryan Mathews is overrated. I'm pretty sure my thoughts on Mathews are well-documented. Physically, he's got the goods. And he's got the opportunity. But whatever the reason, Mathews continues to struggle. On Sunday, he wound up with 26 yards on nine carries, plus another 25 receiving yards. When I see a stat line like that from someone like him, I make a funny face like I'm looking at something in the fridge that might be past its due date. In 10 games this year, he's run for 620 yards, added another 244 through the air, and has scored a grand total of one touchdown. Remind me of this in August when I'm buying his 2013 draft stock, despite the fact that Andy Reid has brought his throw it, throw it, then throw it again offense to San Diego.
I like Jonathan Dwyer as the Pittsburgh starter. In the latest installment of the Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry, Dwyer ran 16 times for 49 yards and a score. That's just 3.1 yards per carry, and the touchdown run was a 16-yarder. But this game always features two heavyweights exchanging punches, and he earned every single one of those yards. The bigger indicator, however, is his 16 carries compared to just nine for Isaac Redman. When the Steelers needed to throw late, Redman played a bit more for his blocking ability, but I still like Dwyer as the lead back next week against San Diego.
That Bryce Brown is pretty good. The former top high school running back in the country now has back-to-back stud performances. After 178 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week, Brown put up 169 yards and another pair of scores this week against the Dallas Cowboys. He's fumbled three times in two games, but I kind of don't care. Those numbers are worth a turnover or two. LeSean McCoy is still going through his concussion recovery phases, and with the season in the toilet, the Eagles might protect their investment. Guys like Brown are often the late-season pickups that can make a difference for fantasy owners, and if you're lucky enough to have him, ride him.
DeMarco Murray looked great in his return. After weeks spent observing the struggles of Felix Jones, Lance Dunbar and Phillip Tanner, Murray's return was like a breath of fresh air. The first time he touched the ball, a graceful, but somehow powerful, 14-yard run. He was supposed to be limited, but ran 23 times for 83 yards and a touchdown. In his short time in the NFL, one of the knocks on his fantasy value has been a lack of touchdowns, but he got a goal line carry and converted. With Murray back healthy, the Dallas offense is more balanced, not to mention more dangerous. After missing several games, he's another player that could change the fantasy fortunes of his owners in the coming weeks.
Good luck going forward.
Drew Magyar is a fantasysharks.com staff writer and can be reached at drewmagyar@gmail.com. "What Did We Learn" will be posted each Tuesday morning during the season, and "Rock and a Hard Place" will be posted each Friday morning.
What Did We Learn - Week 13 fantasysharks.comTue 12/4/12 7:00 AM