While there may be a few stragglers, most leagues have held their drafts and are now poised for Week 1. I, for one, have been waiting quite impatiently for this week and I have no idea to delay things any longer. Let's move right into some final thoughts from the preseason.
Following a season in which Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson put up three of the top rookie seasons by a quarterback in league history, what can we expect from this year's freshman class?
The quarterbacks will be represented by E.J. Manuel (Buffalo) and Geno Smith (New York Jets). Manuel will most likely start for Buffalo from Week 1 on, providing a dual threat for a Buffalo offense that figures to run quite a bit. Smith, on the other hand, has looked shaky, at best, this preseason and has very little offensive talent around him. Both have running ability, which can only boost their fantasy value, but I don't think I'm comfortable having either, even as a backup. Manuel is a better bet, with C.J. Spiller and Stevie Johnson, but he's a reach. Avoid Smith like the plague.
The running back position is one that can often produce value in a rookie class. This season is no different, with Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati), Le'Veon Bell (Pittsburgh), Montee Ball (Denver) and Eddie Lacy (Green Bay). Bernard will compete with the plodding BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the Bengals backfield, and should ultimately provide more value. If he weren't in a timeshare, I'd be more excited, obviously, but he should be a solid flex guy most of the year and flirt with RB2 value. Bell injured his foot in the preseason and is expected to be out early this year, but the waiving of Jonathan Dwyer and recent reports from the Steelers indicate that Bell may be back earlier than expected. Ball will be in a three-way timeshare, and it's anyone's guess how the split goes. Remember that coach John Fox once presided over the Carolina Panthers' backfield, with the Jonathan Stewart-DeAngelo Williams headache. Lacy may be in the best position, in a starting role for a high-powered Green Bay offense. He'll finally be the battering ram the Packers have been looking for. I rank them Lacy, Bernard, Bell, Ball.
The fantasy-relevant wideouts this year look to be Tavon Austin (St. Louis), DeAndre Hopkins (Houston), Cordarrelle Patterson (Minnesota), Aaron Dobson (New England) and Kenbrell Thompkins (New England). Austin will be a slot receiver and specialist for St. Louis. He has the speed to be a true game breaker for the Rams, but he had little impact in the preseason, perhaps in an effort to keep his talent under wraps. Hopkins should start opposite Andre Johnson in Houston, but he's been slowed by a concussion suffered two weeks ago. Patterson isn't yet a starter, but he has the speed and quicks to make an impact. All of that is offset by his quarterback, Christian Ponder. Dobson is a talented guy with good hands, but he's been outshone in Foxboro by Thompkins, an undrafted, free agent rookie. I rank them Austin, Thompkins, Hopkins, Patterson, Dobson.
This season's top offenses look to have a familiar cast of characters:
With Tom Brady at the helm, New England will keep on trucking, even without Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski (at least early in the year). But Brady will use a new cast of wideouts, Stevan Ridley, and then Gronkowski (when he returns) to continue New England's run.
Atlanta has reloaded once again, with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White, who is fully expected to be back for Week 1. They talked Tony Gonzalez out of retirement, and now they've added stud running back Steven Jackson. Look for the Falcons to post some gaudy offensive numbers.
Seattle will continue to adjust its offense this season, morphing from a run-heavy offense at the beginning of the 2012 season into a balanced, high-flying offense this season. Look for Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch to be huge contributors, while receiver value is distributed throughout the corps they've assembled.
While there are other offenses that may perform better, such as Green Bay and New Orleans, one of the big stories of the offseason was Philadelphia's hiring of former Oregon coach Chip Kelly. Kelly will bring his up-tempo, run-heavy scheme to the NFL, with Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown being the key beneficiaries. DeSean Jackson may also be in for a big year.
As for the bottom-feeders:
San Diego looks to be in rough shape. Philip Rivers hasn't looked like a solid NFL quarterback in more than a year, and he has very few options to throw to. Ryan Mathews is the best bet for fantasy value, and that's not a good thing.
Oakland has Darren McFadden, who's made of glass, and the Raiders will probably start Terrelle Pryor at quarterback. I've wasted too many words on them already.
Jacksonville has Maurice Jones-Drew healthy once again, which is huge. The Jaguars also have Cecil Shorts, who emerged as a reliable pass catcher last season. After that, there's not much there.
J-E-T-S, MESS, MESS, MESS! Chris Ivory will be decent as long as he can stay healthy. Santonio Holmes looks like a guy who wants nothing to do with the Jets this season. Geno Smith ran out of the back of an end zone last week.
Finally, there are a few injuries that will have an early season impact:
Maurice Jones-Drew is healthy and will be back for Week 1 following a Lisfranc injuriy last season. With Jones-Drew's contract set to expire after this season, he's looking to earn a big contract. The Jaguars know he won't resign with them, so they'll run him into the ground.
Rob Gronkowski is still recovering from offseason forearm and back surgeries. Reports indicate he has been practicing already, but the Patriots may not have a reason to rush him back and risk further injury. If you're lucky enough to have him, wait until his early season return, and then plug in the best tight end in the game.
Robert Griffin III is going to start on Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. Everything else is posturing. There's no way he misses it. I don't expect the rushing stats from last season, as coach Mike Shanahan attempts to conserve his stud signal-caller.
Le'Veon Bell suffered a foot sprain a few weeks ago in a preseason game. It was initially feared to be a Lisfranc sprain, but Bell avoided serious injury, and he's now ahead of schedule, targeting Week 2. Even if it's Week 3, he needs to be rostered. If his owner is listening to offers, see if you can grab him for 50 cents on the dollar.
Andre Brown's broken leg in the preseason means he'll miss the first 4-6 weeks, and even after that, he'll need to shake the rust off. That makes David Wilson a great value. He'll also get the goal line work, and may be a three-down back by the time Brown returns.
Good luck in Week 1.
Drew Magyar is a FantasySharks.com staff writer and can be reached at drewmagyar@gmail.com. "What Did We Learn" will be posted each Tuesday morning during the season, and "Rock and a Hard Place" will be posted each Friday morning.
well white is the most talented in that group, moore is going to be the 4th option so just not enough targets for me. I think shorts is going to have a decent year considering how bad his qb is. safest play is white in my book
Can you play them both? Green is a stud and is nearly impossible to sit, only Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall constitute a bigger percentage of their team's passing game. He is a virtual lock for 75 and a score. Falcons-Saints is destined to be a shootout, and Colston is a very good bet for some crooked numbers. Try to get them both in your lineup.
i'd go Richardson, hes going to get almost all the carries so you have guarantee points there. I think Johnson will have a pretty solid year but i'd try to wait a week or 2 to see how the bills offense (qb play) is
When in doubt I generally lean running back. Although Stevie is unquestionably Buffalo's #1 receiving option and could go off, Richardson will be an every-down back (at least for this first game while Pead is suspended).
id say Ellis would be the safest pick at least until you see what Austin is really made of. BGE is pretty consistent and he ended last year on fire. he'll also get the goal line carries over Gio for now but i think eventually Gio will take his job. I'd leave Brown and Bennett out of the convo
Sproles, that game is going to be an absolute shootout, he could put up some really good numbers. Shorts doesn't know who his QB is gonna be and is going to have to contend with Brandon Flowers, who was a shutdown corner last year. BJGE has the mauling Chicago defense to contend with. Sproles, definitely.
i'd go green ellis or shorts.. I've had sproles in the past and like him but he's too up and down for me. BGE is the safer pick for now. he'll lose some carries to Bernard but for now is going to get the most carries and has goal line duty
@puma No he passed his concussion tests and is cleared to play. In today's NFL you don't make it to the field if there are concussion concerns.
@Free Lacy has a bad matchup against San Fran, Lance Moore is probably the 4th option behind Colston, Graham, and Sproles. In fence decisions like this I lean towards the guy that I know will touch the ball more. Lacy's floor should be 20 touches and should see some goal line work, so I'll lean his way.
@Nce D.Richardson all day, especially with Pead on suspension. Stay away from any Denver back until that situation clears up a bit. Ball, Hillman, and Moreno will all tote the ball.
@papa That's a tough call, Jennings is the proven talent but I have no faith in Ponder...yet. It's hard to think of any Patriots receiver that doesn't benefit from Brady though. Even Brandon Lloyd put up a decent fantasy season. New England has a juicy matchup too, personally I would roll the dice on Thompkins and brag next week about your genius!
@Dream Wow, that's a bad lot to pick from. Rivers is the best talent but has a bad matchup and has been unpredictable at best the last two seasons. Weeden and Smith are just plain NO. That really leaves EJ Manuel who has shown some running ability, has one of the most dynamic outlets in the league with Spiller, and a legit #1 with Johnson. Don't think there's any question Manuel's ceiling is the highest this week.
Now you see my dilema this week :o 4 QB's (keeper league) but wow, need a first week to figure it out for the season. I was almost thinking the same thing you were, but wondering about Manuel's injury holding him back. Rivers even in his 'bad' weeks last season, still out produced fantasy wise better than Weeden. Thanks for the comment!
@Nate Thanks! I think you got me convinced to start Manuel :) We'll see how this turns out. Maybe it won't come down to him and Ray Rice/Doug Martin will bring home all the points I need.
@BWilliams I can see why you might struggle with that choice. I think if you take Chip Kelly out the equation then you would quickly say Vick has been a borderline starter for quite some time. I don't think Andy Reid was a bad coach, Chip Kelly is different but not necessarily better. The Eagles are not necessarily better either, and they were pretty bad last season. I like the potential in Philly, it should be a rebound year for everyone there. I want to see at least one game of Kelly's work in the NFL though. Off the top of my head the last high steam offensive coach to jump from CFB to NFL was Spurrier, and that didn't work out all that well.
Aside from that, Kap is going to be a beast. No reason he shouldn't have a really crooked stat line facing Green Bay at home. He is the more predictable play between the two.
Nate is right, but if you have a feeling Vick will go off, then play him. He's looked excellent so far and has a match-up that's even better than Kaepernick's. But if you just want to make sure you get a solid stat line, nothing wrong with playing Kaepernick.
Ok I have one for you guys. I have a weak RB2 core and have the following choices in a PPR league.
Mendenhall - Shaky knee, terrible O-line, and playing a good St.Louis D.
BJGE - Giovanni will vulture, against Chicago D
Woodhead - I only put him on the list because of PPR, playing Houston
My lean here is BJGE since Woodhead's role is too unknown, I consider Mendenhall and BJGE equal plays with BJGE not having the knee concerns. Thoughts?
Hm. I just can't imagine a scenario where Mendenhall is going to have a chance to operate in that one. The Cardinals are geared toward the pass completely, they just lost their best o-lineman for the year, Arians would love to throw it 50 times pretty much every week.. eesh. I think you have the right idea leaning Law Firm. It could well be the Bengals pull back on Bernard and give BJGE the ball a dozen or so times. I certainly don't think Mendenhall exceeds that number of touches. If you just can't stomach either of those guys, Woodhead is kind of a feisty dice roll. I could certainly see Rivers dumping it in Woodhead's lap to avoid having Watt scramble his eggs a half-dozen times. But it's a major risk, depends on your confidence in the rest of what you're trotting out this week.
Since Arian Foster won't be getting a full workload should I consider starting Lance Moore, Cecil Shorts, Antonio Gates, or BJGE as my RB/WR/TE instead of Foster?
What Did We Learn - Week 1 fantasysharks.comTue 9/3/13 9:06 AM 60 Comments
Comments
C-Homan12Sat 9/7/13 4:33 PM
Deangelo Williams, Daryl Richardson, or Giovani Bernard for #2 RB?
ginga-ninjaSat 9/7/13 10:51 PM
daryl richardson
ANDY2214Sat 9/7/13 2:20 PM
Luck or vick??
ginga-ninjaSat 9/7/13 10:51 PM
luck
2Tim2Sat 9/7/13 9:35 AM
Roddy White, Lance Moore, or Cecil Shorts?
rpendlumSat 9/7/13 1:42 PM
well white is the most talented in that group, moore is going to be the 4th option so just not enough targets for me. I think shorts is going to have a decent year considering how bad his qb is. safest play is white in my book
AladNsaneThu 9/5/13 8:26 PM
QB- Stafford or Luck?
rpendlumSat 9/7/13 1:44 PM
i'd go luck. raiders are just plain horrible
[Deleted User]Thu 9/5/13 12:05 AM
Should I sit AJ Green this week and play Marques Colston instead? Or play Green and hope he play well against the Bears defense.
Colston is playing against the Falcons defense.
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 9:35 AM
I wouldn't start Colston over Green in any situation. Brees spreads the ball, AJ is the man.
NinoTatsThu 9/5/13 10:00 AM
Always play your best player. Green is elite
BaseNoteThu 9/5/13 11:01 AM
Can you play them both? Green is a stud and is nearly impossible to sit, only Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall constitute a bigger percentage of their team's passing game. He is a virtual lock for 75 and a score. Falcons-Saints is destined to be a shootout, and Colston is a very good bet for some crooked numbers. Try to get them both in your lineup.
ZekkeWed 9/4/13 9:41 PM
Who for Flex?? Stevie Johnson or Daryl Richardson??
rpendlumWed 9/4/13 11:53 PM
i'd go Richardson, hes going to get almost all the carries so you have guarantee points there. I think Johnson will have a pretty solid year but i'd try to wait a week or 2 to see how the bills offense (qb play) is
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 9:36 AM
Agree with Richardson, EJ Manuel too big of ? at this point.
BaseNoteThu 9/5/13 10:38 AM
When in doubt I generally lean running back. Although Stevie is unquestionably Buffalo's #1 receiving option and could go off, Richardson will be an every-down back (at least for this first game while Pead is suspended).
ZekkeThu 9/5/13 4:47 PM
Good deal, thanks guys!
HO-BEAUWed 9/4/13 12:43 AM
Tavon Austin, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Vincent Brown or Martellus Bennett as my Flex
tdawgwhoaWed 9/4/13 1:16 AM
id say Ellis would be the safest pick at least until you see what Austin is really made of. BGE is pretty consistent and he ended last year on fire. he'll also get the goal line carries over Gio for now but i think eventually Gio will take his job. I'd leave Brown and Bennett out of the convo
HO-BEAUWed 9/4/13 11:49 AM
Agreed, thanks for the reply
AdousWed 9/4/13 1:24 PM
Gore, nicks, thompkins, Hilton? Flex?
endgame8Wed 9/4/13 1:55 PM
Gore
JerryKWed 9/4/13 4:45 PM
stevie johnson or miles austin????
skydvrWed 9/4/13 4:52 PM
austin. buf's qb situation is a mess.
619freeballinWed 9/4/13 6:20 PM
close, but I would give a slight edge to Miles Austin just because Romo will pass a lot against the Giants. EJ Manuel hasn't proven himself yet.
WC_state_champsWed 9/4/13 8:39 PM
Cicil Shorts, Darren Sproles or Green-Ellis at Flex?
JerryKWed 9/4/13 8:44 PM
thanks for your guys help
BaseNoteWed 9/4/13 10:06 PM
Sproles, that game is going to be an absolute shootout, he could put up some really good numbers. Shorts doesn't know who his QB is gonna be and is going to have to contend with Brandon Flowers, who was a shutdown corner last year. BJGE has the mauling Chicago defense to contend with. Sproles, definitely.
rpendlumWed 9/4/13 11:56 PM
i'd go green ellis or shorts.. I've had sproles in the past and like him but he's too up and down for me. BGE is the safer pick for now. he'll lose some carries to Bernard but for now is going to get the most carries and has goal line duty
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 9:38 AM
Sproles has the most upside of that lot. If your league is PPR by chance then Sproles is a must start every week.
alon27Thu 9/5/13 3:39 PM
L. Miller or S. Jackson? C. Shorts or M. Austin?
AdousThu 9/5/13 3:47 PM
jackson and austin
3737Thu 9/5/13 3:59 PM
DeAndre Hopkins or Tavon Austin as my 5th wr 2 points per reception?
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 4:09 PM
@alon Jackson and Shorts. I know Jacksonville doesn't scare anyone but Shorts will get his.
@puma Hopkins has a better situation and plays for a better team.
3737Thu 9/5/13 5:09 PM
Should I be worried about his concusion?
BobdigiThu 9/5/13 5:19 PM
Who should I flex .....Eddie lacy or lance Moore?
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 5:37 PM
@puma No he passed his concussion tests and is cleared to play. In today's NFL you don't make it to the field if there are concussion concerns.
@Free Lacy has a bad matchup against San Fran, Lance Moore is probably the 4th option behind Colston, Graham, and Sproles. In fence decisions like this I lean towards the guy that I know will touch the ball more. Lacy's floor should be 20 touches and should see some goal line work, so I'll lean his way.
NceThu 9/5/13 6:52 PM
M. Ball or D.Richardson ?
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 7:06 PM
@Nce D.Richardson all day, especially with Pead on suspension. Stay away from any Denver back until that situation clears up a bit. Ball, Hillman, and Moreno will all tote the ball.
papa14Thu 9/5/13 8:01 PM
Jennings or kenbrall thompkins?
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 8:49 PM
@papa That's a tough call, Jennings is the proven talent but I have no faith in Ponder...yet. It's hard to think of any Patriots receiver that doesn't benefit from Brady though. Even Brandon Lloyd put up a decent fantasy season. New England has a juicy matchup too, personally I would roll the dice on Thompkins and brag next week about your genius!
Kevin_YarnallThu 9/5/13 8:52 PM
E.J. Manuel, Brandon Weedon, Phillip Rivers, or Geno Smith?
papa14Thu 9/5/13 8:52 PM
Great comment. I agree I just wanted the reassurance. Thank Nate
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 9:05 PM
@Dream Wow, that's a bad lot to pick from. Rivers is the best talent but has a bad matchup and has been unpredictable at best the last two seasons. Weeden and Smith are just plain NO. That really leaves EJ Manuel who has shown some running ability, has one of the most dynamic outlets in the league with Spiller, and a legit #1 with Johnson. Don't think there's any question Manuel's ceiling is the highest this week.
Kevin_YarnallThu 9/5/13 9:12 PM
Now you see my dilema this week :o 4 QB's (keeper league) but wow, need a first week to figure it out for the season. I was almost thinking the same thing you were, but wondering about Manuel's injury holding him back. Rivers even in his 'bad' weeks last season, still out produced fantasy wise better than Weeden. Thanks for the comment!
Commish_NateThu 9/5/13 9:23 PM
For what its worth Manuel is going to have to pass a lot to keep up with the Patriots, plus you will certainly get some rushing points.
Kevin_YarnallThu 9/5/13 9:26 PM
@Nate Thanks! I think you got me convinced to start Manuel :) We'll see how this turns out. Maybe it won't come down to him and Ray Rice/Doug Martin will bring home all the points I need.
BWilliams89Fri 9/6/13 4:17 AM
Mike Vick or Colin k
Commish_NateFri 9/6/13 8:34 AM
@BWilliams I can see why you might struggle with that choice. I think if you take Chip Kelly out the equation then you would quickly say Vick has been a borderline starter for quite some time. I don't think Andy Reid was a bad coach, Chip Kelly is different but not necessarily better. The Eagles are not necessarily better either, and they were pretty bad last season. I like the potential in Philly, it should be a rebound year for everyone there. I want to see at least one game of Kelly's work in the NFL though. Off the top of my head the last high steam offensive coach to jump from CFB to NFL was Spurrier, and that didn't work out all that well.
Aside from that, Kap is going to be a beast. No reason he shouldn't have a really crooked stat line facing Green Bay at home. He is the more predictable play between the two.
BaseNoteFri 9/6/13 8:53 AM
Nate is right, but if you have a feeling Vick will go off, then play him. He's looked excellent so far and has a match-up that's even better than Kaepernick's. But if you just want to make sure you get a solid stat line, nothing wrong with playing Kaepernick.
Commish_NateFri 9/6/13 9:20 AM
Ok I have one for you guys. I have a weak RB2 core and have the following choices in a PPR league.
Mendenhall - Shaky knee, terrible O-line, and playing a good St.Louis D.
BJGE - Giovanni will vulture, against Chicago D
Woodhead - I only put him on the list because of PPR, playing Houston
My lean here is BJGE since Woodhead's role is too unknown, I consider Mendenhall and BJGE equal plays with BJGE not having the knee concerns. Thoughts?
BaseNoteFri 9/6/13 9:44 AM
Hm. I just can't imagine a scenario where Mendenhall is going to have a chance to operate in that one. The Cardinals are geared toward the pass completely, they just lost their best o-lineman for the year, Arians would love to throw it 50 times pretty much every week.. eesh. I think you have the right idea leaning Law Firm. It could well be the Bengals pull back on Bernard and give BJGE the ball a dozen or so times. I certainly don't think Mendenhall exceeds that number of touches. If you just can't stomach either of those guys, Woodhead is kind of a feisty dice roll. I could certainly see Rivers dumping it in Woodhead's lap to avoid having Watt scramble his eggs a half-dozen times. But it's a major risk, depends on your confidence in the rest of what you're trotting out this week.
BriceAFri 9/6/13 2:56 PM
RG III or Vick?
Chris Givens, Daryl Richardson, Ahmad Bradshaw, DHB at the flex? Pick 1, .5 ppr league
BaseNoteFri 9/6/13 3:07 PM
Definitely D-Rich as your flex. Go with your gut at QB, both are awesome choices.
3737Sat 9/7/13 8:40 PM
who should I start? Tony Romo playing against the giants Defense or Russel Wilson playing against Carolina defense?
rpendlumSat 9/7/13 8:44 PM
eww that's a tough one. flip a coin basically lol. personally i'd go romo though. think you'll be fine either way
HO-BEAUSun 9/8/13 12:19 AM
Ben Tate or BenJarvus Green-Ellis at my flex this week?
papa14Sun 9/8/13 9:38 AM
id go tate
WC_state_champsSun 9/8/13 10:22 AM
Since Arian Foster won't be getting a full workload should I consider starting Lance Moore, Cecil Shorts, Antonio Gates, or BJGE as my RB/WR/TE instead of Foster?
rpendlumSun 9/8/13 12:06 PM
no. he'll still see enough action imo to out produce ur other options