The season is almost here, and I am just itching to set my lineups. I still have two drafts left to go as Labor Day weekend approaches. Like many of you, I have already had several drafts and some of the players on those rosters have changed in my eyes since I selected them in late July and early August. With preseason games yet to be played, players are still getting hurt, and nothing kills me more at this time of year then seeing one of my early-round players go down and I can't pick up a replacement until after Week 1.
Right now, all the Le'Veon Bell owners are sick with the news that Bell will miss 6-8 weeks, and if the foot doesn't heal right, he could be dealing with this issue all season. Bell has been drafted in the late third round so typically owners drafting in the 9-12 spot have taken Bell as their RB2 on average. Some owners have even skipped running backs for their first two picks and have Bell as their RB1.
That is a tough break to start the fantasy season with. Those owners who took Arian Foster No. 3 on average are starting to panic as well, but news that he is off the Physically Unable to Perform List is better news than those that have Bell.
Every year there are teams you draft that will have players go down early and will leave a big hole in your roster. These are the pitfalls of fantasy drafts. When you draft a player and they get hurt or are done for the season before you even set your Week 1 lineup, you are already behind the 8-ball. Since I started playing fantasy football 10 years ago, it seems that every year for whatever reason, I have a team where I lose a player early. These pitfalls in most instances usually happen in Round 3 for me. I don't know why, but it always seems as if that is the round where I draft a player that is a bust or gets injured. It happens in the first round as well, as I have been burned by players such as Deuce McAllister in 2005, Tom Brady in 2008 (the only year I decided to draft a quarterback in the first round) and Jamaal Charles in 2011.
I say Round 3 is my pitfall because it is the round in which I usually grab a running back and that player just falls off the map due to injury or poor play. You may cringe at some of these names, but, back when these drafts happened these guys were players everyone was targeting. In the past I've drafted players such as Charlie Garner, William Green, Kevin Barlow, Domanick Davis, Travis Henry, Lamont Jordan, Laurence Maroney, Steve Slaton, Tatum Bell, J.J. Arrington and Brandon Jacobs. For you new guys, some of these names might now sound familiar, but for you veterans, I know you are smiling at some of these names because you too have drafted these guys in the third or fourth round and know my pain.
So right now, I look at the drafts I've done and the ones I'm getting ready for and I'm trying to see who are the players that will be my pitfall this season. As I mentioned earlier, those who took Bell at 3.09 on average are kicking themselves. Don't beat yourself up, though, you drafted him thinking he would help you win a championship.
Pitfall Players
DeAngelo Williams - Williams has shot up draft boards ever since news of Jonathan Stewart potentially starting the season on the Physically Unable to Perform List. I don't know why, because even when Stewart was out in recent years, Williams has failed to do anything. Cam Newton has more red zone carries and they have Mike Tolbert. Williams is not used in the passing game much, averaging about 15 catches a season over the past four years. His monster season in 2008 was five years ago when he was 25. He is now the dreaded running back age of 30.
Chris Ivory - Ivory played in just six games last year and was hurt for six others. He was hurt for nine games in 2011 and now he's been hurt with a hamstring injury in preseason. The New York Jets have been talking him up, but if Geno Smith wins the starting job you can expect goal line carry opportunities to go down. I don't think a running back that was third on the depth charts and couldn't stay healthy in New Orleans can carry a full season load in New York.
Mark Ingram - Ingram is a guy who should be on my earlier list but I have never drafted him in any previous leagues. Like many rookie running backs, people had high hopes drafting him in the fourth or fifth round in 2011 but he ended up finishing 43rd among running backs. Last season people expected him to take the next step and he finished 37th among running backs. This season he is going about the same spot he finished last season in, the 36th running back off the board. He missed time his rookie season, and you could try to blame his ho-hum season last year to the absence of coach Sean Payton, but there are still a ton of question marks around him and how he will fit into the New Orleans offense.
Bryce Brown - Brown was a great pickup last year off the waivers but he just made the most of the opportunity he had. If you look at his stats, he had two monster games and then sucked the rest of the season when LeSean McCoy returned, yet in some leagues I see him drafted as if he is in a running back by committee situation in Philadelphia. In reality, he hasn't even won the No. 2 role yet as Chris Polk has out played him all preseason. It will take a significant injury to McCoy for Brown to be relevant, and I'd rather take a guy with more upside like Joique Bell or even a receiver rather than Brown.
Vick Ballard - Ballard is a guy that did OK last season as a waiver wire pickup. Most games you were looking at 40-60 yards but he only scored two rushing touchdowns all year (three total). Many are expecting Ballard to be involved with the offense, but as long as Ahmad Bradshaw can stay healthy, Ballard will not see the field as much because the Indianapolis Colts will throw often. So far through two preseason games, Ballard has had seven carries, including four carries for four yards against the New York Gants. Don't forget that Donald Brown is back in the mix after missing the last five games of the 2012 season.
Sidney Rice - Not all the players on my list are running backs. Rice has seen his stock spike since the injury to Percy Harvin. But Rice hasn't been great since 2009 when he caught 84 passes for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns. Rice has missed time since going to Seattle and played decent last season, but it will be Golden Tate who will benefit and the team will continue to run the ball with Marshawn Lynch.
Denarius Moore - I was high on Moore last season as a sleeper and took him late in drafts, especially in my deeper leagues. He was hurt to start the season then came on slowly but played very inconsistent and faded down the stretch. This season he is on my do not draft in any league list because of the change at quarterback. Matt Flynn will have a hard time throwing the ball downfield to Moore. He's going in drafts ahead of receivers such as Alshon Jeffery, Rueben Randle and Brian Hartline, who I like better.
In fantasy drafts, you can't foresee the injuries or the players that will stink during the season. That is why we have waiver wire pickups because players will get hurt or become absent from the team's offense and you will have to grab someone else to take their place. The good news is that you are not married to these players. Your roster is not set in stone so you have the options to trade or drop anyone you want. The season is long, and, for most of us, our Week 17 roster will look a lot different from the roster we drafted.
Good luck to those who have yet to draft and I hope that you don't suffer the pitfalls that I have in years past.
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Pitfalls of a Fantasy Draft fantasysharks.comFri 8/23/13 9:00 AM