It's Week 3 of the 2013 NFL season, and if there's one mantra IDP owners need to follow in the last week before the bye weeks begin, it's this:
Don't panic.
Yes, an 0-2 start is far from ideal. However, in the vast majority of IDP leagues it also isn't the end of the world, so don't go blowing that roster up just yet. There's still plenty of time to right the ship.
At least, I hope there is, because most of my IDP teams decided that getting the snot kicked out of them would be a fun way to start the year.
It's also too early to start freaking out and dropping underperforming IDP studs. Every year there are several prominent individual defensive players who get off to a slow start. Most of them end up getting their acts together and returning to the level of productivity we expected (or at least close to it).
This isn't to say that there isn't cause for concern with players like Dallas Cowboys' linebacker Sean Lee , whose fantasy production appears to have been negatively impacted by the new scheme in Dallas. The leash gets shorter the shallower the league, but panic drops will come back to bite you in the butt as often as not.
Through two games last year, Miami Dolphins defensive end Cameron Wake had four tackles and no sacks. He ended the year with 15 sacks. Just saying.
Now, onto this week's recommendations.
Every week during the 2013 season, I'll point out some individual defensive players who could be set to exceed expectations this week (studs) and some that for whatever reason are riskier plays than usual (duds).
That isn't necessarily to say that every "stud" is a must start (it depends on your other options) or that every "dud" should be glued to your bench (just that the odds of a letdown week are greater than usual).
Let's get this show on the road!
STUDS
Michael Johnson, DE, Cincinnati (vs. Green Bay): The talented trio of Johnson, defensive tackle Geno Atkins and fellow end Carlos Dunlap have gotten off to a sluggish start in 2013. However, the stage would appear to be set for them to pick up the pace in Week 3, as no quarterback in the NFL was sacked more last year than Aaron Rodgers .
Cameron Jordan, DE, New Orleans (vs. Arizona): The Arizona Cardinals allowed an eye-popping 58 sacks in 2012. The more things change, the more they stay the same it would appear, as through two games the Cardinals are allowing the most fantasy points per game to defensive linemen. That bodes very well for Jordan's IDP prospects this week.
Brian Robison, DE, Minnesota (vs. Cleveland): Robison quietly had a nice season last year, and last week Robison made his IDP owners very happy with a fumble return for a touchdown. It should be smiles all around for the second week in a row with Robison, who squares off this week against a Browns squad starting Brian Hoyer at quarterback.
Akeem Dent, MLB, Atlanta (at Miami): The Falcons have been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. Weak side linebacker Sean Weatherspoon's injured foot landed him on short-term Injured Reserve, which should mean more tackle chances for Dent against a Miami Dolphins team surrendering the most fantasy points to linebackers so far in 2013.
STUDS (con't)
Geno Hayes, SLB, Jacksonville (at Seattle): This week's deep league spot-start special, Hayes has surprisingly played three downs for the Jaguars this year and is coming off a 10-tackle showing in last week's loss to Oakland. Look for that production to keep going this week, as the Jaguars defense is going to be on the field for 72 minutes against the Seahawks.
Daryl Smith, ILB, Baltimore (vs. Houston): After a slow Week 1, Smith rebounded in a big way in Week 2, topping 10 total tackles and notching 1½ sacks. The 10th-year veteran should make it two strong showings in a row Sunday against the Houston Texans, who allowed the second-most tackle opportunities per game in 2012.
Tyrann Mathieu, FS, Arizona (at New Orleans): It's the second straight week on the "studs" list for Mathieu, who has amassed 13 solos and a forced fumble in two games this season. There's no reason to think that "The Honey Badger" can't keep the good times rolling this week in a very favorable IDP matchup with Drew Brees and the pass-happy Saints.
Glover Quin, SS, Detroit (at Washington): Quin hasn't been a complete bust for IDP owners in 2013, but he also hasn't lived up to expectations so far in his first season in Motown. This week Quin starts earning his imaginary paycheck for fantasy owners against a Washington Redskins club that has been a top-five5 fantasy matchup for defensive backs this year.
Charles Woodson, FS, Oakland (at Denver): We don't know for sure exactly what injury strong safety Tyvon Branch has, but we do know that he won't be seeing him on the field any time soon. That means that Woodson is going to have to step up his game, beginning Monday night against a potent Denver Broncos offense.
DUDS
Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona (at New Orleans): Campbell is another prominent IDP who isn't off to the best of starts, although the 27-year-old did notch a sack in last week's win over Detroit. Don't look for that slow streak to reverse itself at the Superdome, as the Saints are a rotten pass-rush matchup.
Lamarr Houston, DE, Oakland (at Denver): After a solid Week 1 Houston tailed off in Week 2, despite a favorable pass-rush matchup with the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. Unfortunately for Houston's IDP owners that mini-slump isn't likely to stop this week, as Peyton Manning 's quick release should compensate for the injuries on the Denver offensive line.
Osi Umenyiora, DE, Atlanta (at Miami): Umenyiora had a big fantasy day in Week 2, but pick-sixes aren't generally something you can count on from defensive ends. Add to that the injuries on defense that are going to allow opposing offenses to key on Umenyiora, and you have the makings of a risky IDP play moving forward.
London Fletcher, ILB, Washington (vs. Detroit): Fletcher has been an IDP rock for years, but there may be trouble afoot. Fletcher's age appears to be showing a bit in the early going this season, and it doesn't help that this week the Redskins face a Detroit Lions team who has been the worst IDP matchup in Fantasy Sharks Default IDP Scoring in 2013.
Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seattle (vs. Jacksonville): Although drafted as a top-10 fantasy linebacker, so far this season Wagner hasn't come close to living up to that billing. It's much too early to start freaking out, but the second-year pro should be benched if at all possible this week. Last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Oakland Raiders middle linebacker Nick Roach posted a goose-egg.
DUDS (con't)
Philip Wheeler, WLB, Miami (vs. Atlanta): It's been so far so good for Wheeler this year, who has tallied 18 total stop in his first two games with the Dolphins. However, the Falcons aren't an especially favorable IDP matchup, and with Atlanta without Steven Jackson this week their gameplan will probably be pass-happy.
Kam Chancellor, SS, Seattle (vs. Jacksonville): You see, here's the thing: for a safety to have IDP value, the opponent has to occasionally reach the back end of a defense. Given that the Seahawks face a Jacksonville Jaguars team this week that couldn't move the ball against Oakland, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that to happen.
Barry Church, SS, Dallas (vs. St. Louis): Church has been one of the more pleasant surprises at his position in IDP leagues this season. However, the chips are stacked against his Top 5 fantasy production continuing this week against a St. Louis Rams squad that's 26th in fantasy points allowed to defensive backs in 2013.
Eric Weddle, FS, San Diego (at Tennessee): Weddle's about as steady as fantasy defensive backs come, and the vast majority of his IDP owners will start him this week. However, Weddle's Week 3 matchup with the Tennessee Titans isn't especially good, and the whole "West Coast team traveling east for an early game" deal is also in play.
Don't forget to check back here regularly at Fantasy Sharks for all your IDP needs, from Rankings and Projections to waiver wire pickups and strategy. Whatever you need, Fantasy Sharks has you covered!
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Gary Davenport is the IDP Senior Staff Writer at Fantasy Sharks and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, In addition to his work at Fantasy Sharks and at IDP Manor, Davenport's IDP work has been featured in a number of national print publications and on both satellite and terrestrial radio.
IDP STUDS AND DUDS - Week 3 fantasysharks.comFri 9/20/13 9:06 AM