IDP Draft Preview: Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for the Top DBs in... fantasysharks.com Thu 4/10/14 9:06 AM

It's the calm before the storm. With the combine and pro days all wrapped up, and free agency winding down, it's time to play the waiting game until the 2014 NFL draft gets rolling on May 8. That hardly means there's nothing to talk about, however. We've got an entire month to speculate about this year's incoming rookie class, including college football's top defensive stars. We've already hit the defensive linemen and the linebackers , so let's wrap up our look at best and worst-case IDP landing spots for this year's rookie class by peering into the murky cloud that is trying to figure out defensive backs. Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville Best Case: Arizona Cardinals With Yeremiah Bell reportedly set to retire and Tyrann Mathieu coming back from a torn ACL, there's more than a little uncertainty at the back end of the Arizona defense. At least one draftnik believes the Cardinals may look to address that uncertainty by adding Louisville safety Calvin Pryor. Pat Kirwan of CBS Sports writes of the Cardinals making Pryor the 20th overall pick, saying, "Pryor is a hard-hitting safety and a Day 1 starter. Pryor was in on 218 tackles in 38 games. He also forced nine fumbles and picked off seven passes." More importantly to IDP owners, a landing spot in Arizona would likely mean a starting job at strong safety (and potential IDP DB2 value) right out of the gate. Worst Case: undefined undefined undefinedundefinedundefined undefined undefined undefined Baltimore Ravens It may seem a bit odd for the Baltimore Ravens to go the safety route in the first round for a second consecutive year. However, one of Kirwan's colleagues at CBS thinks that could happen. Dane Brugler wrote of the pick, "Could the Ravens go safety in back-to-back years? Why not, that's one possibility with James Ihedigbo not coming back. Pairing Pryor with Matt Elam would give Baltimore options in the deep half." That may be all well and good for the Ravens and even Pryor, but coach John Harbaugh also showed last year with Elam that he won't rush a young player onto the field who isn't ready, and that would add more than a little uncertainty to Pryor's short-term fantasy outlook. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama Best Case: Pittsburgh Steelers From an IDP perspective, Clinton-Dix faces something of an uphill battle in the NFL. Not because he isn't a very talented young defensive back, but because of the way he'll probably be utilized at the professional level. However, there are a few stops where Clinton-Dix might be able to buck those odds, including Pittsburgh. Defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau's "Blitzburgh" defense with the Steelers is all about sending players flying towards the line of scrimmage from all over the place, and the result was solid IDP production from free safety Ryan Clark (who moved on in free agency) each of the past two years. Of course, the presence of free agent signee Mike Mitchell also makes this quite the longshot, although Todd McShay's latest mock draft at ESPN has Clinton-Dix bound for Western Pennsylvania. Worst Case: Dallas Cowboys If Pittsburgh is a favorable (albeit somewhat unlikely) destination for Clinton-Dix, Dallas is a more likely landing spot. Unfortunately, it's also much less appealing to IDP owners. Yes, Clinton-Dix, who Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Matt Miller wrote is "just as likely to lay out a ball-carrier as he is to pick off an errant pass," would all but certainly be a Day 1 starter for the Cowboys. The problem is the presence of strong safety Barry Church (who led the team in tackles a year ago) and a scheme where Clinton-Dix would be playing deep a lot . It's a role the 6-foot-1, 208-pounder would probably thrive in, but it would also significantly cap Clinton-Dix's IDP upside. Deone Bucannon, SS, Washington State undefinedundefinedundefined undefined undefinedundefinedundefined undefined undefinedundefinedundefined undefined Best Case: Chicago Bears For years, the strong safety position has been an afterthought in Chicago. Last year, Major Wright was the worst safety in the entire NFL according to Pro Football Focus . Of course, Wright, playing behind a leaky front seven in Chicago, also posted 100 total tackles and tallied a Top 15 IDP finish in 2013. As things stand right now the wholly unimpressive Ryan Mundy is slated to start at strong safety for the Bears, but should the team look to the draft and a player like Bucannon, who Miller says "hits like a linebacker but moves like a smaller safety prospect." The 6-foot-1, 211-pounder would probably earn a starting job (and IDP DB2 value) from Day 1. Worst Case: San Francisco 49ers Make no mistake, Bucannon, who Rob Rang of CBS Sports called "an explosive hitter," could easily wind up 2014's top rookie IDP defensive back if the chips fall the right way. However, as is often the case with first-year defensive backs, there's also a real chance that a not-so-hot landing spot could leave Bucannon with minimal fantasy value, at least in the short-term. For Bucannon, the shiny new stadium in Santa Clara would be just such a landing spot. Not only is the San Francisco defense a wasteland for defensive backs thanks to swirling storm of beatdown that is the 49ers' front seven, but Bucannon would be hard-pressed to unseat Eric Reid or Antoine Bethea atop the depth chart at safety in San Francisco. Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois Best Case: New England Patriots As is the case every spring, the weeks leading up to the NFL draft are filled with players moving up and down draft boards. Ward is one player headed in the former direction, to the point where Bleacher Report NFL National Lead Writer Matt Bowen believes Ward may be taken on the draft's first day. "Given the versatility Ward brings to the position," Bowen wrote, "plus the production he put on tape at NIU, there is a real possibility the safety jumps up into the first round this May during the opening night of the NFL draft." The Patriots could use an upgrade at strong safety next to Devin McCourty, and while Ward's arrival would throw a bucket of cold water on Duron Harmon's sleeper value in 2014, it wouldn't be a bad IDP home at all for the former MAC standout. Worst Case: Seattle Seahawks On some level it might seem odd to envision the Seahawks spending an early pick on a safety. After all, in Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas the Seahawks have the NFL's top duo at the position. However, the team just handed Chancellor $7 million a season a year ago, and when Thomas' contract expires after the 2014 season he's all but certainly command even more than that. With some difficult financial decisions hanging over their heads, it would behoove the Seahawks to consider hedging their bet a bit in the secondary. Granted, learning from two of the very best in the NFL at what they do may well help Ward's long-term future in the National Football League. However, it would also mean a reserve/special teams role as a rookie, which would make Ward hard to roster in all but the deepest of IDP dynasty leagues. Ahmad Dixon, SS, Baylor Best Case: Philadelphia Eagles The Philadelphia Eagles may have won the NFC East last year, but the pass defense was not very good. The team has already added free safety Malcolm Jenkins, but Chris Steuber of Comcast Sports Net Philadelphia believes the Eagles should continue to upgrade the secondary with Dixon. Steuber says Dixon, "could develop into the best safety from this year's class," going on to say that Dixon, "has good size, speed and strength, as well as the athleticism to cover and instincts to make an impact at and behind the line of scrimmage." The most important thing that Dixon would have going for him in Philadelphia (in the eyes of IDP owners) is only second-year pro Earl Wolff standing between him and a starting gig at strong safety, giving the probable mid-round draft pick in May a puncher's chance at real fantasy value in 2014. Worst Case: Detroit Lions You know, it wasn't all that long ago that the idea of Dixon landing in Detroit would have been included as a "Best Case" scenario. In fact, that time was all of two or three weeks ago. However, in the interim much has changed. At first glance the signing of free-agent strong safety James Ihedigbo may not seem like that big a deal. After all, the 30-year-old journeyman spent most of his career as a special teamer before exploding for 101 tackles for the Baltimore Ravens last year. However, not only did Ihedigbo rank a respectable 16th among NFL safeties last year at Pro Football Focus, but the eighth-year veteran also managed to hold off first-round pick Matt Elam to start at strong safety in Baltimore. Given that Steuber concedes Dixon "needs to continue to work on his awareness, as well as ball and cover skills," it's not hard to imagine Ihedigbo doing the same thing to Dixon in Detroit in 2014. Here at Fantasy Sharks, we have all your IDP needs covered for the 2014 NFL Draft. Be sure to check out the articles by Fantasy Sharks IDP Staff Writers Walton Spurlin and Mike Woellert , and for additional information on this year's top IDP prospects be sure to check out the IDP Draft Preview Series at IDP Manor and follow IDP Manor on Twitter. Gary Davenport is the IDP Senior Staff Writer at Fantasy Sharks and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and The Pro Football Writers of America. Davenport's IDP work has been featured in a number of national print publications and on both satellite and terrestrial radio, and he was a finalist for the FSWA Web Article of the Year in 2013.