Most fantasy football experts cover their tracks and never really go out on a limb. You will hear an ESPN guy say Andre Ellington and Jeremy Maclin are sleepers, something my 7-year-old cousin could come up with. Sleepers are a key to success in any fantasy season. Last season you could have had Knowshon Moreno for a dollar in an auction league and it could have very well saved your team. It is also very important to stay away from the guys who could ruin your fantasy year. Last year, another expert from ESPN told you it was a good idea to take Maurice Jones-Drew in the first round. Below I list my deep sleepers for your draft and auction and also my not so obvious bust list.
Deep Sleepers
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota -- I don't think the Vikings will be nearly as bad as people anticipate, and the Vikings offense has a bevy of weapons that include Adrian Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Jennings , Kyle Rudolph and a young solid offensive line. If you compare this to the situation that Johnny Manziel is in with no one to throw to besides Jordan Cameron, Bridgewater is absolutely a better option. The other positive with Bridgewater is his ability to run, which could give you an additional rushing touchdown here and there. Bridgewater is the 33rd-ranked quarterback in NFL.com fantasy rankings, and there is no reason that if he starts Day 1 he won't outperform guys like Chad Henne , Ryan Tannehill and Sam Bradford. Bridgewater was by far the best college quarterback besides Jameis Winston and I expect him to outperform what other fantasy experts project.
James White, RB, New England -- One of the biggest things I have learned with fantasy running backs is to target guys who are on good teams that will often times be in the red zone. White is one of those guys who has often times been overlooked. He was a high school teammate of Giovani Bernard and he also received limited carries with Montee Ball and Melvin Gordon at Wisconsin. In New England, Stevan Ridley is in the dog house due to fumblitis and Shane Vereen is more a receiving threat so there are carries to be had. Couple that with the departure of LeGarrette Blount, who should be a goal-line machine in Pittsburgh, and signs point to White. The Patriots had 19 rushing touchdowns last season, which ranked tied for second, only behind Minnesota. It should be noted Christian Ponder had four rushing touchdowns in nine games which is why Bridgewater could easily get that many. I don't see any reason why White couldn't rush for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns and be a relevant fantasy running back.
Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia -- Philadelphia is expected to have an explosive offense again under coach Chip Kelly, and while it would simply be to easy to write about Jeremy Maclin or hype Zach Ertz as the next great thing at tight end, we have come to realize Kelly simply doesn't utilize his tight ends as much as he could. Matthews, in my opinion, is the most NFL-ready wide receiver other than Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans. The only difference is he will actually have a good quarterback. He is 6-foot-4 and runs like a deer. Matthews led the SEC with 112 catches and 1,477 receiving yards playing with Vanderbilt and some horrendous quarterbacks. He is also interestingly a cousin of Hall of Fame receiver Jerry Rice, which can't be a bad thing. Matthews could be in for a huge season despite only being a rookie.
Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas -- Williams will be coming into his second NFL season and is widely expected to be the Cowboys' No. 2 receiver. There's been a recent trend by Baylor and coach Art Briles of putting some talented recievers in the league, including Josh Gordon and Kendall Wright. Williams looks to continue the trend and could be in for a number of targets due to Dez Bryant being doubled. Another positive is the Dallas defense. Dallas' defense is poor to say the least and I highly expect them to turn games into high-scoring, gun-slinging shootouts. Williams was impressive as a rookie, tallying more than 700 yards receiving. Williams should have a higher stock in my opinion than guys like Dwayne Bowe and Cecil Shorts III who are ranked higher on some major sites. Offensive coordinator/playcaller Scott Linehan could also prove to be a factor as he has shown he can run a high-powered offense which features many targets as he did in Detroit.
Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego -- The tight end sleeper in my opinion is really obvious unless you think Andrew Quarless has a big year in Green Bay. Antonio Gates is washed up and Green is a freak who is ready to make a Jimmy Graham-type impact. Green was born in Germany and was a very talented basketball player in high school. And that seems to be a trend among all the great tight ends like Graham, Tony Gonzalez and Gates. Green has had time to develop and learn, which is what Graham did in New Orleans when they had Jeremy Shockey. A worst case scenario with Green is he is a huge red zone target and he may take an additional year to mature.
Other deep deep sleepers tight ends include Taylor Thompson (Tennessee), Zach Sudfeld (New York Jets), Adrien Robinson (New York Giants) and Levine Toilolo (Atlanta).
Fantasy Busts
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit -- Stafford has been a great fantasy quarterback in recent years, throwing for more than 4,500 yards each of the past three years. One big factor that people forget is Stafford is highly injury-prone along with the fact that Jim Caldwell is a terrible coach. Why the Lions let Scott Linehan go is crazy to me and that is no disrespect to Joe Lombardi, but he is very unproven. It is a fact Sean Payton ran the New Orleans offense while Lombardi was the Saints' quarterback coach, so we just don't know yet. If I were to guess another factor in putting Stafford as a bust is that the Lions will most likely try to limit Stafford's turnover problem by implementing the run more. A Reggie Bush - Joique Bell combination could accomplish more if their defense wasn't so dysfunctional in blowing leads. That could be fixed however now that former coach Jim Schwartz is gone. Stafford may still have a good season but really isn't worth the top 5 ranking over guys like Andrew Luck and Cam Newton .
Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis -- I still don't understand the Stacy hype. Stacy, who was a fifth round pick rushed for less than 1,000 yards and under 4.0 yards per carry is being considered in the top 10 running backs this year. Stacy plays on a bad team and plays the tough NFC West defenses in Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona twice each. Bad teams find themselves throwing the ball a lot because they find themselves trying to play catch-up and abandon the run. The other downside to Stacy is that Tre Mason is a talented back who could find himself stealing most of Stacy's carries. Taking Stacy higher than guys like Chris Johnson , Reggie Bush and Shane Vereen is crazy considering those guys also have receiving skills, something Stacy lacks.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas -- Murray being talked about as a top 5 fantasy running back as well as a first-round fantasy selection is absolute blasphemy. Murray, entering his fourth season, has never played 16 games in a season, playing 14 in 2013, 10 in 2012, and 13 in 2011. Murray will also be playing for new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, who is known to be very pass happy and that could also limit his touches. To take a guy in the first round of a fantasy draft who I know won't play 16 games and won't be used as often as he should be will kill your fantasy season. Let us compare Murray to Chris Johnson. I believe Johnson is being incredibly undervalued as he has totaled more than 1,000 yards in each of his first six seasons. Johnson also missed one game in six seasons, and even played this past season with a torn meniscus. The bottom line with Murray is that the league is a passing league, and players such as Julio Jones , Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas should be taken over Murray in a snake style draft.
Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay -- This was a tough one for me to pick as it is extremely tough to pick a bust wideout. When searching for a bust at this position it's best to search for bad quarterback play ( Mike Wallace when he signed in Miami). I'm calling Josh McCown's play last season a fluke. Marc Trestman is a great coach and managed McCown through those games. Lovie Smith is expected to lean heavily on the run as he did in Chicago with Matt Forte. Jackson is a great player but he is aging and I don't see any way McCown plays well enough for him to be a better fantasy play than Wes Welker , Torrey Smith or DeSean Jackson.
Deep Deep Sleepers and Not so Obvious Busts fantasysharks.comWed 8/6/14 9:06 AM