As fantasy players, we tend to lock into beliefs that we never give up or change. These beliefs can be developed over the course of many seasons or just over the course of one preseason. It's very easy to look at last year's stats and this year's rankings and form an opinion. But every year, players break from the patterns we expect. Old veterans return to prominence. Superstars fade into oblivion. Injury-prone players stay healthy while bastions of health are lost for the season. As always, you're trying to stay ahead of the curve. It's not going to do you nearly as much good to figure out this stuff after the draft. Now, Ms. Cleo I am not. My Jamaican accent is terrible. So these are educated guesses, based on every available piece of information I can get my grubby little paws on. So, taking it from the top ... AHMAD BRADSHAW/BRANDON JACOBS - Pay attention here. The New York Giants are going to use basically a 50/50 RBBC (running back by committee) split. It's what they used at the end of last season. Bradshaw averaged just two carries more per game over the last month of the season. That has continued throughout the preseason. That means that Bradshaw is being overdrafted while Jacobs represents a steal. You'd definitely still rather have Bradshaw in a PPR (points per reception) league. But Jacobs has a shot to be just as valuable in standard leagues. Just make sure that you do not draft Bradshaw as your RB1 (No. 1 fantasy running back). And if Jacobs is there in Round 8 and you need a running back ? REGGIE BUSH/ DANIEL THOMAS - This is a tough one. There's no way that Bush can stay healthy. Right? Could moving out of the dome (and it's turf) really help him? We know that the Miami Dolphins are going to run the ball. Now we now that they are going to use Bush as a featured back if healthy. Thomas has looked very ordinary in the preseason while Bush has looked explosive. The only reason Thomas was so highly regarded by fantasy owners was the fact that we knew that the Dolphins were going to run the ball and Thomas was all they had. The signing of Larry Johnson indicates that the Dolphins aren't completely comfortable with Thomas being "the guy" if/when Bush gets injured. So I would pretty much flip-flop Bush and Thomas in your rankings, especially in PPR leagues. Don't overdraft Bush, but if you can get him in the sixth or seventh round as your RB3, I'm probably pulling the trigger. He has RB2 upside now. Thomas should be no more than your RB4 and he's still an advisable handcuff for Bush, but you would probably have to draft him before Bush, which defeats the purpose. DEVIN HESTER - Yeah, I can't believe that I'm writing this either. Let's get this straight - we're still talking about the third-to-last pick of your draft, right before you take your defense/special teams and kicker. Hester has looked more like a wide receiver this preseason than we've ever seen. Mike Martz has had a year to figure out how to use Hester. They've put Johnny Knox on mothballs when every other coaching staff would've just demoted Hester after signing Roy Williams. We're talking about a late-round flier here. But if Hester finally put it together, he has WR3 upside in a PPR league. We're talking about deep PPR leagues here. The point of this is to say that Hester is at least back on the radar. A month ago he wasn't draftable in almost any fantasy leagues. Now he's at least got a shot in the dark. MIKE TOLBERT/ RYAN MATHEWS - This one has been popular all offseason. After being left for the proverbial dead, Mathews finally showed up in the second week of the preseason. But this is a 50/50 RBBC, with Tolbert working at the goal line and in the passing game. You know, the good parts. San Diego Chargers head coach Norv Turner has come out and stated that this is an even timeshare. This means that no matter which back your prefer (for me it's Tolbert) these two should be very close to each other in your rankings. Mathews might get a bit more volume, but Tolbert will get more of the crucial touches. Both are RB3s right now. MARION BARBER - Yet again from the desk of "I Can't Believe That I'm Writing This." He's back. Again, nothing crazy here. But Barber looks very healthy, somewhat explosive and very strong. He is going to get the goal line carries and the short yardage work for the Chicago Bears. At the minimum, he's a nice handcuff for Matt Forte. He could wind up with six-plus touchdowns and be worth using as the occasional fill-in when the matchup is right. Just another guy to use a late pick on in deeper leagues. But compared to where he was after being cut by the Dallas Cowboys, that's kind of amazing. PIERRE THOMAS/ MARK INGRAM/ DARREN SPROLES - This is going to be some sort of three-way RBBC. We know that Ingram will get the goal line carries and Sproles will play the "Reggie Bush" role on obvious passing downs. In redraft leagues, don't go too crazy on Ingram. He's an excellent RB3, but if you draft him as your RB2, you're going to be very disappointed some weeks. Thomas has started both preseason games and got a contract extension this offseason. He's not going anywhere. Thomas is more of a RB4 with a bit more value in PPR leagues. But he can be had five-plus rounds after Ingram is off of the board. Much like Bush before him, Sproles will only really have value in PPR leagues that award points for return yardage and scores. PEYTON MANNING - Tony Dungy said it best. If Manning is breathing, he will be starting Week 1. Could he start slow? Absolutely. Will he be the Manning everyone knows by the time the calendar flips to October? Absolutely. Manning has been falling in drafts and you should more than happily scoop him up if he's there in the fifth or sixth round. If you're that nervous, draft a QB2 late who has a couple of decent early season matchups. But don't pass on Manning based on this injury. RYAN TORAIN/ TIM HIGHTOWER/ROY HELU - Torain is just not even on the radar right now. Dude is always hurt. Meanwhile, Hightower and Helu have looked excellent. We're not forgetting that this is a Mike Shanahan football team. Crazy stuff will happen at running back. But don't blow a draft pick on Torain. Even throwing Helu out, this is still Hightower's job to lose. Now we've all seen Hightower before. He's nothing exciting. But he catches the ball well and has had success at the goal line. And quite frankly, Shanahan has made lemonade with far worse. Helu is worth a late-round flier in deeper leagues, but just don't expect a quick return on your investment. Hightower is the only Washington Redskins running back worth drafting in most leagues. And Hightower could wind up being a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues. Nothing sexy, but don't hate on the production. Let's just call Hightower "The New Fred Jackson." Perfect. CHRIS JOHNSON/ JAVON RINGER/ JAMIE HARPER - Burying the lead here a bit, eh? It's tough to predict, but I don't think Johnson is signing any time soon. The Larry Fitzgerald contract pretty much sealed that coffin. The problem is, the longer that Johnson holds out, the less likely the Tennessee Titans are to sign him. What incentive do the Titans have to give Johnson a truckload of cash if they're 0-4 and four games out of first already? On the flip side, if the Titans are 3-1 and running the ball well, what incentive do they have to give Johnson a truckload of cash? See where this is going? Even if Johnson signs a few days before the season, how effective will he be? We've seen most players coming out of a holdout struggle to perform and stay healthy. I'm drafting this weekend and I'll tell you what, I'm not drafting Johnson before the fourth or fifth round. Why? I'm not a guy who likes playing from behind. Early in the season nobody has injured players or players on byes. So you need your whole team at full strength to maximize your chances of winning. Having even a fourth- or fifth-round pick who gives you nothing for the first month can cost you wins. Secondly, this is a league where you can only carry seven running backs. If I draft Johnson, I've pretty much committed to also drafting Ringer and Harper. That means that three of my seven running back spots are dedicated to Titans running backs. That's no good. I would much rather just take Ringer or Harper later in the draft. Ringer has looked good in the past while Harper has looked excellent this preseason. Most likely this will be some sort of a RBBC while Johnson is out. But if either running back stands out, he could win the job outright. In a division where they get to go against the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars defenses twice, that's worth at least RB3 value in fantasy. So do yourself a favor. Do not draft Johnson as a starting fantasy RB. Draft Ringer or Harper as a late-round flier in most leagues. FRED JACKSON/ C.J. SPILLER - Fantasy owners were somewhat blindsided by the news that the Buffalo Bills starting running back job was "Spiller's to lose." Yeah, hows about them apples? Jackson had been touted as a "safe sleeper" all preseason. But in reality? None of it matters. The Bills offensive line is the worst in the league. It's highly unlikely that the Bills will playing with a lead very often. And do you really think that there will be ample red zone carries for the Bills on offense? It's not going to be wise to bank on a Bills running back to help you consistently in fantasy. Remember, the Bills also play the NFC East this season. They have a terrible fantasy schedule. These are the kind of players that you pick up off of the waiver wire, not waste draft picks on. Now if there is a RBBC situation, it's doubtful that either is very useful in fantasy while the other is healthy. This is a backfield to avoid if at all possible. MARIO MANNINGHAM - Now this isn't to hate on Manningham. Quite the contrary, I really liked Manningham earlier in the offseason. But since the departure of Steve Smith, Manningham has seen his draft stock soar. He's now being drafted as a WR2 of WR3 in the fifth or sixth round-area. I think that's about right. But there is no longer any "sleeper" value. You are probably drafting Manningham to start for your team. What I'm trying to make crystal (clear) is that you are not going to be able to grab Manningham as a sleeper later in your draft. Don't plan on that. If you love Manningham, be ready to take him early. I view him as a viable WR2 in PPR leagues and a WR3 in standard leagues. It's fine to draft him as such, but if he does not perform to that level he becomes a bust, even if he's an elite WR4. REGGIE WAYNE/ JOSEPH ADDAI - Ah, The Usual Suspects. Neither of these guys is an ascending player at this point in their careers. Will Wayne match his numbers from last season? Not with everybody healthy. But the hate is going too far. Despite the Delone Carter Hype Train, Addai is going to be the featured running back for the Indianapolis Colts. He's good around the goal line and excellent as a receiver out of the backfield. Will Reggie Wayne catch 100 passes and 10 touchdowns this season? Probably not. How about 85 catches for 1,200 yards and six touchdowns? Entirely possible. That's a low-end WR1 or an elite WR2, with some added PPR value. So why is Dwayne Bowe going ahead of Wayne in drafts? If Wayne is falling to you in Rounds 4-5, don't hesitate to draft him. And if you wait to fill your RB2 spot? Grab Addai in Rounds 7-8 and just make sure that you get Delone Carter with a late-round pick. It won't be sexy, but it should be sufficient. So there's that. Or that's that. I just never like writing the same word twice in a row. The whole point of this is to break from your preconceived notions. If I actually draft Bush or Hester in my longtime 14-team draft this weekend, it will draw a major response from the room. Because I've historically hated, and gleefully trashed these guys. But if they can help me in fantasy this year, I really don't care what they've done in the past. And that's the entire point.