In fantasy football, no four-letter word is uttered with more contempt than "bust." That's because nothing (except maybe injuries) will derail the quest for fantasy glory quicker than watching an early draft pick fall flat on his face. It's been responsible for the untimely deaths of thousands of remote controls over the years.
The thing is, in many instances it isn't the player in question's fault any more than it was the poor clicker's. After all, neither one of them drafted that player too early. Whether it's buying into the hype surrounding a player, ignoring the warning signs surrounding them, or a combination of the two, every year there are individual defensive players who get drafted too early. 2014 is no different.
With that in mind, here's a look at the biggest Individual Defensive Player (IDP) league disappointments waiting to happen this season.
Average Draft Position Data courtesy of My Fantasy League .
Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Detroit (ADP: DL9)
There's going to be a recurring theme running through this article. If, in order to justify the draft-day investment you've made, a player has to hit their IDP ceiling in 2014, then odds are you've over-drafted them.
Mind you, this isn't to say that Ansah isn't a talented pass-rusher. The former BYU star led all rookies with eight sacks in 2013 despite playing fewer than 600 snaps. Set for a larger role and with an NFL season under his belt, Ansah appeared primed for big things this year.
However, Ansah opened camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list, and Detroit head coach Jim Caldwell offered no timetable for his return to the practice field while speaking with Justin Rogers of MLive.com on July 27.
" It's whenever the Lord says that he's healthy and healed, " Caldwell said. "The medical staff will look at it after the Lord's decree and we'll see what goes on after that. "
For all Ansah's talent, he's also still somewhat raw as a pro, and all these missed practice reps aren't going to make it any easier for Ansah to make a big second-year leap. At the rate things are going, it's going to take divine intervention for Ansah to justify his top 10 average draft position (ADP) this year.
Sheldon Richardson, DE, New York Jets (ADP: DL10)
Just as with Ansah, this isn't an indictment of Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson . After all, all Richardson did in his first NFL season was rank fifth among 3-4 defensive ends according to Pro Football Focus en route to being named Defensive Rookie of the Year.
However, while Richardson piled up nearly 80 total tackles last year he managed only 3½ sacks. In fact, SB Nation recently questioned whether Richardson will ever become an elite pass-rusher.
" Sheldon Richardson's nickname is the Boss Hogg. The question in front of us is whether he will be just a run clogging hog, or whether he develops the array of moves that can turn him into the same kind of monster against the pass that he already is against the run."
That lack of a pass rush repertoire had about the effect you'd expect on Richardson's IDP production in 2013. In Fantasy Sharks Default IDP Scoring last year, Richardson finished as a DL3, behind the likes of Minnesota's Brian Robison and Pittsburgh's Cameron Heyward of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Richardson is a great young player and a beast while defending the run, but in order to justify a Top 10 asking price, Richardson would need to make a huge big-play jump this year. Playing strong-side end in a 3-4 front opposite Muhammad Wilkerson , I just don't see it happening.
Alec Ogletree, OLB, St. Louis (ADP: LB5)
It may seem like I'm piling on the second-year players here, but I swear that wasn't my intent. It just appears that it's last year's newcomers who have this year's IDP drafters falling all over themselves to pull the trigger.
On some level, it's certainly not hard to see why those IDP owners are enamored with Ogletree after a rookie year in which he topped 115 tackles, added six forced fumbles and finished the season as a Top 15 fantasy linebacker.
Ogletree recently told Chris Goltermann of The Times-Herald that he's after an even bigger and better season in Gregg Williams' attacking defense in 2014.
"It's like night and day for me from last year to this year," Ogletree said. "You just feel more comfortable because you know what you've got to do. You know where you have to lineup. Now it's just about going and playing."
However, for as well as Ogletree played in 2013, he finished in IDP LB2 territory. Given that Ogletree's big play numbers were already pretty good, the Rams' scorekeepers are notoriously stingy about doling out assists and that stiff competition for tackles exists in the person of James Laurinaitis , it's kind of hard to see where a big boost in IDP production is going to come from.
As a low-end LB1 or upside IDP LB2 pick in 2014, I like Alec Ogletree just fine. But, drafting him with the expectation of a top 5 finish (ahead of players like San Francisco's Patrick Willis and Kansas City's Derrick Johnson is asking for a letdown.
Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seattle (ADP: LB6)
Yep. There's another recurring theme running through this article. Every player listed here is very good at what they do. Wagner is no exception, amassing 120 tackles and five sacks during the Seahawks' run to a Super Bowl title last year.
In fact, as Stephen Cohen of The Seattle Post-Intelligencer reported, the NFL Network's Gil Brandt recently called Wagner one of the most underrated linebackers in the entire NFL.
" Bobby Wagner is one of the most important pieces of one of the NFL's best defenses," Brandt wrote. "The play-caller who holds the unit together, getting everybody lined up right. He's also a do-everything force from the middle linebacker spot, making tackles all over the place, sacking the quarterback and picking off passes."
However good Wagner might be at quarterbacking the NFL's best defense, that doesn't change the fact that based on his average draft position the reverse holds true about Wagner in fantasy football -- he's overvalued.
In many respects, it has nothing to do with Wagner himself. For starters, that vaunted Seattle defense means a lot more three and outs; Seattle ranked 27th in tackle opportunities a season ago. Also, the Seahawks scorekeepers aren't especially generous but are assist-happy, to the point that 40 percent of Wagner's total tackles last year were assists.
I'm not saying that Wagner isn't an IDP LB1 this season, especially given the injuries that have ravaged the Top 10 at the position. With that said, however, Wagner's one of the lower-ceiling IDP LB1's this year, but he isn't being drafted like one.
Earl Thomas, FS, Seattle (ADP: DB1)
Frankly, I could plug in just about any player from the top of the defensive back ADP list and make an argument that they're overvalued. Defensive backs are inherently high-variance anyway, so using an early pick on one is already a risky proposition.
Some defensive backs more than others.
As Tony Drovetto of the Seahawks' website reports, Thomas isn't done after becoming the highest-paid safety in the NFL. He wants to leave no doubt as to who's the best.
"I want to change people's perceptions of the safety position," Thomas said. "Safety has been an unappreciated position in the league for a long time. It's proven to be an invaluable position, especially for our defense in Seattle."
No one is doubting Thomas' prowess on the gridiron. In fact, there are those who would make the argument that Thomas is the best defensive player in the league at any position. However, drafting Thomas as the first fantasy defensive back off the board shows an alarming disconnect when it comes to knowing the difference between NFL skill and IDP value.
Yes, Thomas was a top 10 defensive back in 2013, but last year was also a career year and then some, and even then Thomas finished the season sixth at the position in fantasy points. Throw in the lack of tackle opportunities in the Emerald City I mentioned earlier, and taking Thomas as the top defensive back isn't just drafting him at his fantasy ceiling.
It's drafting him over it.
As IDP Draft Season gets underway in earnest, Fantasy Sharks has you covered. Whether it's player rankings for redraft and dynasty leagues, projections, player spotlights, sleepers and busts or strategy tips, IDP Staff Writers Walton Spurlin and Mike Woellert and IDP Senior Staff Writer Gary Davenport have all the information you need to dominate your IDP league in 2014.
Also, for additional IDP information be sure to check out IDP Manor , and for the latest IDP news and player updates follow IDP Manor on Twitter .
Gary Davenport is the IDP Senior Staff Writer at Fantasy Sharks and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and Pro Football Writers of America. Davenport's IDP work has been featured in a number of national print publications and on both satellite and terrestrial radio, and he was a finalist for the FSWA Web Article of the Year in 2013.
CAVEAT EMPTOR: The Most Overvalued IDPs of 2014 fantasysharks.comTue 8/5/14 9:06 AM