As you've probably heard by now, the quarterback position is deep going into this year's draft. It's most likely going to stay that way, barring any major injuries or recovery setbacks as the regular season approaches. Whether you snatch up Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers in the second round, or take the best available in the sixth round, that is a discussion for another time.
The bottom line: There are at least 12 quarterbacks that are more than capable of leading your team to a fantasy championship. Honorable mentions go to Andy Dalton, Michael Vick and Eli Manning. I wouldn't feel comfortable relying on them to start each week, but they aren't far from cracking the Top 12.
12. Tony Romo -- Dallas Cowboys (Average Draft Position: 87)
Romo finished ninth among fantasy quarterbacks in 2012, but only nine points behind Peyton Manning, who finished sixth. Dez Bryant caught fire the second half of last year and it finally seems like the two of them have found a nice groove. Romo has at least 4,000-plus passing yards and 26-plus touchdowns in every season in which he played 16 games. Will he finish as a top-5 quarterback? No -- probably not. But he does have the chance to be sixth or seventh (where he was two years ago in 2011), and that's not bad for a guy going in the middle of the seventh round. I expect his average draft position to rise as the summer progresses.
11. Matt Ryan -- Atlanta Falcons (Average Draft Position: 63)
What you see is what you get. Matt Ryan is good for 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and 4,100 yards. In other words, what he did in 2011. Ryan's passing yards are the only stat that fluctuates with the amount of pass attempts he has. The Falcons will run the ball more in 2013 (Ryan had 615 pass attempts in 2012 versus 566 in 2011) now that they have a running back in Steven Jackson. Matt Ryan is a fine fantasy quarterback and he is consistent from year to year. While I think his average draft position of 63 is too high, I'd take him in the late sixth round or early seventh round if he fell.
10. Robert Griffin III -- Washington Redskins (Average Draft Position: 66)
It is still early, and that is why he is ranked 10th. Regardless of what we hear from the Redskins' camp and how his progression is coming along, he's still had two ACL tears in three years. He isn't solely dependent on his running game, but it's a large part and he wouldn't have finished fifth among quarterbacks last year if he was limited. Griffin III's stock will be the most volatile leading up to September. I'd be surprised if his average draft position ended up being higher than 48.
9. Colin Kaepernick -- San Francisco 49ers (Average Draft Position: 55)
Kaepernick averaged 20 points per game once he took over the full-time job from Alex Smith. Michael Crabtree's torn Achilles tendon definitely hurts Kaepernick's value but it doesn't doom him. His average draft position will most likely fall because of it. Just remember, about 40 percent of Kapernick's overall points were earned on the ground last year.
8. Russell Wilson -- Seattle Seahawks (Average Draft Position: 68)
Unlike Colin Kaepernick, who lost his best wide receiver to injury, Wilson now has the luxury of throwing the ball to recently acquired Percy Harvin. A lot of Wilson's value is what he is capable of doing in the running game. He can make things thing happen with his legs and doesn't need to try and force passes.
7. Andrew Luck -- Indianapolis Colts (Average Draft Position: 60)
The next Peyton Manning, right? He will have to improve his efficiency (54 percent completion percentage) if he ever hopes to be -- and this year he will. Luck is now reunited with Pep Hamilton from Stanford, and the new offensive scheme will be less aggressive.
6. Matthew Stafford -- Detroit Lions (Average Draft Position: 67)
Stafford is my quarterback pick to have the biggest rebound in 2013. While we are still waiting for a No. 2 wide receiver to emerge opposite of Calvin Johnson, the addition of Reggie Bush will be a boon to the Lions' running and passing games. The 5,000 passing yards were there again in 2012 and I expect the touchdowns to tick back up. Johnson was tackled inside the 5-yard line on way too many occasions last year.
5. Tom Brady -- New England Patriots (Average Draft Position: 49)
Exit Wes Welker. Enter Danny Amendola. Brady has been one of the most consistent top performing quarterbacks. The only potential issue is how injury prone his targets are. Rob Gronkowski might miss the beginning of the season (at least?), Danny Amendola is made of glass, and Aaron Hernandez's durability record is spotty at best. That being said, I will not even begin to worry about Brady's production until two out of those three are out.
4. Peyton Manning -- Denver Broncos (Average Draft Position: 62)
Despite being another year older, Manning is surrounded by a better supporting cast. Wes Welker made the move to the Rocky Mountains and the Broncos spent a second-round pick on a promising running back in Montee Ball. After Manning put up his second-best statistical season of his career, I like him even more this year with the newly added firepower.
3. Cam Newton -- Carolina Panthers (Average Draft Position: 41)
The bad news: As an NFL quarterback, Newton's first two years have been a tale of two halves. He exploded onto the scene in 2011 season before finishing his last eight games less-than-mediocre. Last season was quite the opposite. He continued that subpar play to start 2012 before turning in some elite showings to conclude the season.
The good news: He puts up great fantasy numbers -- regardless of how mediocre his performance is as an actual NFL quarterback on some days. He finished as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in 2011 and No. 2 in 2012!
Fun stat: In the past two years, Newton's 16 worst fantasy performances would have landed him as a top 12 quarterback in 2011 and top 10 quarterback in 2012 if you counted the 16 games as one season.
2. Aaron Rodgers -- Green Bay Packers (Average Draft Position: 21)
Sometimes it just doesn't feel right to rank Aaron Rodgers anywhere but No. 1. Interestingly enough, he hasn't been the top scoring fantasy quarterback in some time. The good news is that he's always near the top. The Packers added a couple of rookie running backs (Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin) that will definitely result in a better running game -- ultimately helping Rodgers in the long run.
1. Drew Brees -- New Orleans Saints (Average Draft Position: 33)
Brees edged out Cam Newton to be the highest scoring fantasy quarterback in 2012. As expected, the loss of Robert Meachem last year didn't negatively affect him. Sean Peyton is back, and I would be surprised if Brees didn't throw for another 5,000 yards this season.
12 QBs I'd Love To Own fantasysharks.comSat 6/15/13 3:00 PM