Should You Draft Him?: Tennessee Titans fantasysharks.com Wed 8/7/13 12:00 PM

No football player has spawned a more bizarre obsession with his personal stats than Chris Johnson. Every week during the regular season the deafening roar of whether or not Johnson has lived up to his fantasy draft position nearly drowns out the fact that the Tennessee Titans are a football team that plays actual, real-life games. I remember reading a recap of a terrible 38-14 loss to the Houston Texans last season where Johnson was talking like the offensive execution was a big success because he managed to rush for 141 yards. The Titans spent most of the fourth quarter of that game feeding Johnson the ball a ridiculous amount of times because apparently getting him his stats was more important than, I don't know, actually trying to win the game. So will our national nightmare of worrying about Johnson getting enough yards come to an end? As long as he continues to be the only compelling player on that roster in fantasy and real life, probably not. Did you know that the Titans haven't sent a single player to the Pro Bowl over the last two seasons? That's crazy. Do you know how easy it is to get to the Pro Bowl? After replacement selections due to injury, players deciding they don't want to go, and everyone who makes the Super Bowl not being allowed to participate. I think I might have been selected for one. In 2009, David Garrard got in on the strength of a 7-9 season where he passed for a whopping 15 touchdowns. In the last two seasons, not one of the 53 players on the Titans roster managed to cobble together a good enough season to be considered one of the four or five or six best in the conference at their position. What I'm saying is, while I hate that people seem to believe that Johnson's fantasy stats are the single most important order of football business in Nashville, when you see how little the other 52 guys are bringing to the table, I kind of get it. But low expectations bring low fantasy draft position, so this football dungheap just might be hiding some quality sleepers. Let's pick through this and find out who's worth drafting. (ADP = Average Draft Position. Figures are based on 12-team standard scoring leagues. Kickers will be ignored because real football players beat them up and steal their lunch money.) Jake Locker (ADP: Undrafted): On paper it looks like he should have some good upside. He can move, he has a good pass catching running back that defenses have to respect, and his receiving corps is pretty solid. ...

Monday Morning Takeaway: Preseason Week 1 (Cont.) fantasysharks.com Mon 8/13/12 8:50 AM

New York Jets 6, Cincinnati 17 Jets The Jets offense was hard to watch, and even harder to write about. The blocking performance from the offensive line was awful in both the pass and run game as starting quarterback Mark Sanchez was unable to generate consistent production. Shonn Greene continued his usual plodding style picking up a meager 11 yards on five carries. I was hoping so badly for Bilal Powell or Joe McKnight to jump off the screen and take over the Jets backfield. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. The highlight of the night for the Jets was two longer runs by Tim Tebow, immediately followed by a terrible interception. Even more goofy was watching Tebow run down on punt coverage. I'm not sure any Jets player is worthy of drafting. Bengals Bengals' quarterback Andy Dalton picked up right where he left in 2011 with solid decision making, accepting what the defense allowed him, while managing his team on long sustained drives. Dalton made it a point to include both AJ Green and tight end Jermaine Gresham. Overall a decent outing for the Bengals' passing game. As expected, BenJarvis Green-Ellis started in the Bengals' backfield. More of a straight line runner, the Law Firm displayed his usual powerful running style with soft hands while excelling in pass blocking. As one of the league's few 3-down running backs, the Law Firm is deserving of upper RB2 value garnering early 4th round consideration. The lowlight for the Bengals were numerous injuries including; starting left guard Travelle Warton, defensive end Carlos Dunlap and middle linebacker Rey Maualuga. Miami 7, Tampa Bay 20 Dolphins David Garrard will be lost for the preseason after undergoing a surgical procedure on his troublesome knee. Stepping in as the Miami starting quarterback was Matt Moore. In my humble opinion Moore is the Rodney Dangerfield of football, brimming with talent, but having played for terrible football teams under constant turmoil. Moore didn't let me down opening the game with two solid drives while delivering the football with velocity and accuracy. Moore carries zero fantasy value due to a lack of team talent at the wide receiver position. After going 14-for-21 with 167 yards and one touchdown, rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill has gained rave reviews in the media postgame reports. Although impressive for a rookie performance, Tannehill's production didn't begin until late in the 3rd quarter against the Bucs 3rd string defense. Don't be ...

Inside the Numbers - Fantasy Forecasting Your Draft fantasysharks.com Mon 6/4/12 4:30 AM

The first order of business is understanding the law of probability when it comes to fantasy football. For instance, did you know that since 2009, 36 percent of first-round picks are statistical busts for that season? That means roughly one out of three first round picks will underperform. Six of the first round busts since 2009 were thanks to a serious injury and five had prior years of injury problems, whether through professional or college years. (Frank Gore, Ryan Mathews, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson) Or the fact that since 2000, the running back who leads the league in carries has scored less fantasy points the following year. The decrease in production is actually staggering for carries leaders from the prior year since 2000. Thirty-nine percent average decrease in yardage, and 49 percent decrease in touchdowns. So, if you were thinking Maurice Jones Drew, who led the league with 343 carries in 2011, be prepared for 979 yards and five touchdowns in 2012, according to this data. When the 2012 drafts begin, you will have heard all about how this is a passing league and running backs are as thin as Kate Moss, but if you are a numbers cruncher, be prepared to blow those people away. Let's get started with quarterback. This might be a pass-happy NFL, but why does this mean you have to draft quarterback so early? Aaron Rodgers is a sure-fire Top 5 pick, and rightfully so if you ask me. He is the picture of consistency, scoring in the Top 3 of all fantasy players the previous three years. So you missed out on Rodgers, now what? Wait on a Quarterback Assuming you are in a 12-team league, standard scoring with one starter each week. You are certainly going to see Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Drew Brees and most likely Matthew Stafford off the board by the start of Round 3. But how much true value are you receiving by watching these guys go by? In 2011, the average draft position (ADP) of the Top 10 quarterbacks combined was the sixth round. Only two of the Top 10 averaged a first- or second-round ADP. And history tells us ... In 2009, Rodgers was the top fantasy quarterback in standard leagues, scoring 397 points. The 12th-best quarterback in standard leagues scoring was David Garrard, with 234 points. The weekly difference in a 16-game schedule with playoffs: 6.81 In 2010, the two quarterbacks to compare were Michael Vick and Matt Cassel. The weekly difference in a 16-game schedule with playoffs: 5.19 In 2011, this ...

Dolphins sign QB Garrard to compete for starting gig brunoboys.net Mon 3/19/12 10:45 PM

The Miami Dolphins signed free-agent quarterback David Garrard to a one-year deal on Monday.

Garrard not an option for reeling Texans brunoboys.net Wed 11/30/11 8:45 AM

The Houston Texans are in desperate need of some quarterback depth - but they won't get it from free agent David Garrard.

Report: QB Garrard has no desire to play brunoboys.net Fri 10/7/11 8:45 PM

Free agent quarterback David Garrard had another reason beyond money for not joining the Miami Dolphins: No desire.

5.5 Things I Think I Think fantasysharks.com Thu 10/6/11 9:04 AM

1 -- Andre Johnson will miss more than the "low-end" three weeks that are being estimated. Johnson ended up missing seven games in 2007 when he was recovering from knee surgery and the Houston Texans said he would only be out three weeks. Given the situation in the AFC South and the recent injury dealings with Arian Foster, I believe that Houston will be much more likely to proceed with caution with Johnson and allow him ample time to recover. Owen Daniels will likely be the primary fantasy football benefactor, not Jacoby Jones. 2 -- The New York Jets' commitment to again define themselves with a "Ground and Pound" approach does not mean the emergence of Shonn Greene to fantasy relevance. Greene has been given ample opportunity to catapult himself to fantasy prominence this season by getting 51 carries while LaDanian Tomlinson has only gotten 20. With a 2-2 record and a road matchup with the New England Patriots staring them straight in the face, look for the Jets to lean on the veteran Tomlinson for stability. Tomlinson can be counted on as a pass catcher and capable blocker. Don't count Joe McKnight out of the mix to earn a few carries either after the spark he has provided in the return game. 3 -- Cam Newton has got to come back down to earth sometime ... maybe, but I have no earthly idea when. Critics were quick to write off Newton's Week 1 performance as being against a weak Arizona Cardinals team. His only subpar performance came in a home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, while he put up great numbers against the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. The Jaguars game was asterisked by a torrential downpour that hindered the Panthers' ability to pass the ball. Put aside trying to gauge Newton's ability by his opponent and understand that these are not John Fox's Panthers anymore. Newton has attempted at least 34 passes in all four games so far. Figure in that Newton has four rushing touchdowns and with his size and ability he will always be a candidate to score in the red zone. The bottom line is that Newton is quickly entering fantasy quarterback elite status. Forget the matchups. Start him! 4 -- Curtis Painter has more fantasy value than you might think. Painter is no Peyton Manning. I know, I know ... newsflash, right? It is likely that Painter should not appear in a single fantasy lineup this season. That doesn't mean he doesn't have fantasy value. Painter's experience and familiarity with the Indianapolis Colts' system means that if he ...

QB Garrard still open to joining Dolphins brunoboys.net Wed 10/5/11 8:20 AM

Free agent quarterback David Garrard is still open to the possibility of joining the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Herald reported Tuesday night.

Dolphins tried to sign Garrard, Delhomme brunoboys.net Tue 10/4/11 1:30 PM

The winless Miami Dolphins unsuccessfully tried to sign free agent quarterbacks David Garrard and Jake Delhomme this week, NFL.com reported Tuesday.