I have to use quotes because I use the word lightly. Now, I understand that projections are indeed just that - projections. But you guys should have a systematic formula/method of figuring out what the projections are. For instance, you can start with each NFL team's projected stats and allocate them to each player. How can Tony Romo be projected for zero TD passes this week but Miles Austin is projected to catch one? I don't pay attention to projections much because I am projected for about 150 points every week and usually get 100, but this is just lazy...
I'm just wondering how these projections are these projections made?
There was one week where I compared the weekly projections to ESPN's and there were something like 30 more tds projected by FleaFlicker for the week.
Some of them are relatively close but some are just awful and obviously inflated. I'm not talking about times when a player gets hurt, randomly lays an egg, or has a career day. I'm thinking of projections that I have no idea how they could have been made like this one:
Week 9 Steve Smith (Carolina):
Projection: 17+ points
Prior average points per game 7.3
Highest point total of the year: 13.6
Opponent: New Orleans (#1 against opposing WR's in every category)
Previous output against NO: 1.1 (2 catches, 11 yards)
Fantasy Points in the Game: 0.9 (1 catch, 9 yards)
It seemed pretty obvious looking at his stats that he wouldn't have a good game. I just don't see how the formula could realistically project a player to score 4 points above his season high and more than double his season average against the #1 defense against his position in every category. Especially when he did terribly against the same team earlier in the year.
Too many players are projected to have their season highs every week. Almost every time I look at the match up projections, teams in my 12 team league are predicted to have 130-150 points but when the results are in only 2-3 teams actually get 100+ points.
I guess I'm just curious in how the projections are made so they can be so vastly different from every other set of weekly projections I read because at this point it seems like an entirely new formula is needed.
They predict Austin gets a receiving TD, Williams gets a receiving TD and Witten receiving TD and Romo throws no TD. Yea they aren't even trying to make sense.
DUB-C_ChampFri 10/22/10 4:40 PM
I have to use quotes because I use the word lightly. Now, I understand that projections are indeed just that - projections. But you guys should have a systematic formula/method of figuring out what the projections are. For instance, you can start with each NFL team's projected stats and allocate them to each player. How can Tony Romo be projected for zero TD passes this week but Miles Austin is projected to catch one? I don't pay attention to projections much because I am projected for about 150 points every week and usually get 100, but this is just lazy...
ZackStaffordThu 11/11/10 11:29 PM
I'm just wondering how these projections are these projections made?
There was one week where I compared the weekly projections to ESPN's and there were something like 30 more tds projected by FleaFlicker for the week.
Some of them are relatively close but some are just awful and obviously inflated. I'm not talking about times when a player gets hurt, randomly lays an egg, or has a career day. I'm thinking of projections that I have no idea how they could have been made like this one:
Week 9 Steve Smith (Carolina):
Projection: 17+ points
Prior average points per game 7.3
Highest point total of the year: 13.6
Opponent: New Orleans (#1 against opposing WR's in every category)
Previous output against NO: 1.1 (2 catches, 11 yards)
Fantasy Points in the Game: 0.9 (1 catch, 9 yards)
It seemed pretty obvious looking at his stats that he wouldn't have a good game. I just don't see how the formula could realistically project a player to score 4 points above his season high and more than double his season average against the #1 defense against his position in every category. Especially when he did terribly against the same team earlier in the year.
Too many players are projected to have their season highs every week. Almost every time I look at the match up projections, teams in my 12 team league are predicted to have 130-150 points but when the results are in only 2-3 teams actually get 100+ points.
I guess I'm just curious in how the projections are made so they can be so vastly different from every other set of weekly projections I read because at this point it seems like an entirely new formula is needed.
DUB-C_ChampFri 11/12/10 2:21 AM
It really is just unprofessional. But then again, their parent company is AOL...
PugamussMon 10/25/10 4:02 PM
They predict Austin gets a receiving TD, Williams gets a receiving TD and Witten receiving TD and Romo throws no TD. Yea they aren't even trying to make sense.
cmoxSun 10/24/10 1:33 PM
ya and it seems every single one of my running backs each week is slated for 17 carries for 80 yards and a touchdown. its been wrong every time.
DUB-C_ChampSun 10/24/10 2:00 PM
Haha I know...they love to project everyone to get a TD.