You know the drill, looking for feedback on my keeper situation. Keeping six, standard flea-eligible league. Choices are:
Roethlisberger
Shonn Greene
Fred Jackson
Willis McGahee
Tony Gonzalez
Denarius Moore
Brandon Marshall
Dwayne Bowe
Jeremy Maclin
Michael Crabtree
Pretty messy group, lot of interchangeable risk/reward ratios. Seems to me like Marshall and Bowe would be at the front of the pack, but with Bowe headed for free agency and Brandon Marshall.. being crazy, well. Crabtree finished strong, Maclin may have taken over as the #1 in Philly, Denarius flashed big potential, Greene quietly racked up 1200 total yards and the Jets could be going back to a run-heavy philosophy, McGahee is 'the guy' for now in Denver, ditto for Jackson, Roethlisberger topped 4K yards (even though he only threw for 3 or more TDs in a game twice all season), and the ageless Gonzo somehow finished as the No. 4 fantasy TE in his age 36 campaign. So, what do I do?
Really, you'd remove Greene from the RB equation? Granted, Jackson and McGahee have shown a lot more talent in the past than Greene, but Greene's only 26, and he may get a lot more carries next year, with the Jets recommitting to the running game. Jackson and McGahee have both crossed the age-30 threshhold.
True, McKnight and Powell in the wings are worrisome, probably both capable of replacing Greene completely. But then again, Jackson has Spiller coming on way strong, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Denver drafted an RB in the earlier rounds.
Jets' offense will be different next year, though. Greene may see less touches as a result. Jackson will reclaim #1 spot in Buffalo, while McGahee has no competition for carries at this time. Try seeing if someone will trade for one of your backs to make your decision easier.
Btw, sweet Iron Maiden cover pic. I agree that Greene's the guy over Benson, but Greene is definitely a very hollow-feeling keep, at this point in time. I can't recall ever watching him and thinking 'wow, nice run' or anything else even pseudo-flattering. Benson is a free agent, think he lands anywhere that affords him 300-ish touches like he'd become accustomed to in Cincy? If the Bengals don't draft a runner, would almost expect them to bring Benson back. They've never given Bernard Scott a fair shake.
Bengals never committed much to Scott though, even when Benson was not playing (they just had no other options). I don't think they see him as a feature runner, but he's a nice change-of-pace back for them.
Right, so I don't think the Bengals envision replacing Benson from within; if they decide to let Benson walk, they'd sign somebody of some substance or draft his replacement. Having one of the three obstacles Benson faces to returning to Cincy - one of the precious few places he could hope to have it so easy.
I personally don't think he will make it to Cincinnati's spot, but NFL teams are moving away from drafting RB early, prefering to focus on line help. I've seen a lot of Michael Turner comparisons for TRich.
I see Benson leaving as a free agent. He may stay in the AFC North. Not sold on Redman/ Dwyer if Mendy slow to return. Also, the Browns may look to CB as a replacement for Hillis. Minnesota could also be an interesting landing spot while the Vikes wait for AP to return. New England would be intriguing if the Pats aren't sold on Vereen and Ridley.
Good tea leaf-reading. I think the Steelers will retain Mendenhall, just on the strength of his 2010 season. No substantive reasoning behind that, but the Steelers are going to have 'bigger fish to fry' with all their potential cap casualties and offensive scheme changes, upgrading from Mendenhall/Redman/Dwyer seems like it could get overlooked. Browns did recycle Jamal Lewis with some success a few years ago, maybe they'd try it again.. who knows what will happen with Hillis, though. New England isn't going to move on from that much young (see: cheap) talent at RB so quickly, don't see it happening.
BJGE is unlikely to go anywhere; don't think many teams are willing to sacrifice any versatility/playmaking ability for ball security, and they're certainly not willing to pay much for it. Belicheck went away from them because they're rookies, haven't been in the big games before, doesn't trust them yet, etc. My opinion, anyway.
Is Roethlisberger really a 'lead pipe lock', even amongst this middling group? He's headed toward having more value in real football than in fantasy; the Steelers dropped Arians to force the offense back to the ground game. This will reduce Roethlisberger's turnovers and may increase his per-play effectiveness, but his scores certainly won't increase, and his yardage is due to dip - when any QB worth his fantasy salt is clocking 250 yards per game/4,000 per season. Is Roethlisberger still a safe bet to be a top-10 QB?
Don't buy into all that talk about going back to a ground and pound scheme. Pittsburgh is a far better passing team than a running team. The line is terrible, Mendy may not be as effective after injury, and Redman/ Dwyer are not capable of carrying that type of attack. Roethlisberger is still a solid top 10 fantasy play in all formats.
Hey Hal, shoot me an email message. Want to talk to you about something involving fleaflicker. Promise not to spam you or give your info out, don't wanna get banned!
BaseNoteWed 1/18/12 2:38 AM
You know the drill, looking for feedback on my keeper situation. Keeping six, standard flea-eligible league. Choices are:
Roethlisberger
Shonn Greene
Fred Jackson
Willis McGahee
Tony Gonzalez
Denarius Moore
Brandon Marshall
Dwayne Bowe
Jeremy Maclin
Michael Crabtree
Pretty messy group, lot of interchangeable risk/reward ratios. Seems to me like Marshall and Bowe would be at the front of the pack, but with Bowe headed for free agency and Brandon Marshall.. being crazy, well. Crabtree finished strong, Maclin may have taken over as the #1 in Philly, Denarius flashed big potential, Greene quietly racked up 1200 total yards and the Jets could be going back to a run-heavy philosophy, McGahee is 'the guy' for now in Denver, ditto for Jackson, Roethlisberger topped 4K yards (even though he only threw for 3 or more TDs in a game twice all season), and the ageless Gonzo somehow finished as the No. 4 fantasy TE in his age 36 campaign. So, what do I do?
rangerdaveThu 1/19/12 3:30 PM
Roethlisberger
Jackson
McGahee
Marshall
Bowe
Maclin
BaseNoteFri 1/20/12 8:18 PM
Really, you'd remove Greene from the RB equation? Granted, Jackson and McGahee have shown a lot more talent in the past than Greene, but Greene's only 26, and he may get a lot more carries next year, with the Jets recommitting to the running game. Jackson and McGahee have both crossed the age-30 threshhold.
rangerdaveFri 1/20/12 8:45 PM
Not a Greene fan. Look out for Bilal Powell.
BaseNoteFri 1/20/12 10:54 PM
True, McKnight and Powell in the wings are worrisome, probably both capable of replacing Greene completely. But then again, Jackson has Spiller coming on way strong, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Denver drafted an RB in the earlier rounds.
rangerdaveFri 1/20/12 11:17 PM
Jets' offense will be different next year, though. Greene may see less touches as a result. Jackson will reclaim #1 spot in Buffalo, while McGahee has no competition for carries at this time. Try seeing if someone will trade for one of your backs to make your decision easier.
BaseNoteSat 1/21/12 9:51 PM
Interesting. Replace Fred Jackson on the initial list with Cedric Benson. Who would you want, then? Is Cedric done, or just done in Cincy?
rangerdaveSun 1/22/12 7:55 AM
I still keep Jackson.
BaseNoteSun 1/22/12 3:40 PM
Lol no, I mean Jackson is no longer an option, Cedric Benson has replaced him on the list entirely.
rangerdaveSun 1/22/12 5:53 PM
I would keep Greene over Benson.
BaseNoteMon 1/23/12 10:15 PM
Btw, sweet Iron Maiden cover pic. I agree that Greene's the guy over Benson, but Greene is definitely a very hollow-feeling keep, at this point in time. I can't recall ever watching him and thinking 'wow, nice run' or anything else even pseudo-flattering. Benson is a free agent, think he lands anywhere that affords him 300-ish touches like he'd become accustomed to in Cincy? If the Bengals don't draft a runner, would almost expect them to bring Benson back. They've never given Bernard Scott a fair shake.
FleaMod AdminMon 1/23/12 10:34 PM
Bengals never committed much to Scott though, even when Benson was not playing (they just had no other options). I don't think they see him as a feature runner, but he's a nice change-of-pace back for them.
BaseNoteTue 1/24/12 12:45 AM
Right, so I don't think the Bengals envision replacing Benson from within; if they decide to let Benson walk, they'd sign somebody of some substance or draft his replacement. Having one of the three obstacles Benson faces to returning to Cincy - one of the precious few places he could hope to have it so easy.
rangerdaveTue 1/24/12 2:22 PM
Some of the latest mocks have TRich going to Cincy.
BaseNoteTue 1/24/12 3:04 PM
Ha, don't say that man! Richardson is projected to stick around that late in the first? What kind of pro comparisons is he drawing?
rangerdaveTue 1/24/12 3:25 PM
I personally don't think he will make it to Cincinnati's spot, but NFL teams are moving away from drafting RB early, prefering to focus on line help. I've seen a lot of Michael Turner comparisons for TRich.
FleaMod AdminWed 1/25/12 2:06 PM
I agree with both of you
rangerdaveWed 1/25/12 2:11 PM
I see Benson leaving as a free agent. He may stay in the AFC North. Not sold on Redman/ Dwyer if Mendy slow to return. Also, the Browns may look to CB as a replacement for Hillis. Minnesota could also be an interesting landing spot while the Vikes wait for AP to return. New England would be intriguing if the Pats aren't sold on Vereen and Ridley.
BaseNoteWed 1/25/12 2:38 PM
Good tea leaf-reading. I think the Steelers will retain Mendenhall, just on the strength of his 2010 season. No substantive reasoning behind that, but the Steelers are going to have 'bigger fish to fry' with all their potential cap casualties and offensive scheme changes, upgrading from Mendenhall/Redman/Dwyer seems like it could get overlooked. Browns did recycle Jamal Lewis with some success a few years ago, maybe they'd try it again.. who knows what will happen with Hillis, though. New England isn't going to move on from that much young (see: cheap) talent at RB so quickly, don't see it happening.
rangerdaveWed 1/25/12 3:23 PM
They did bench those young guys this week, plus the Law Firm is a free agent as well.
BaseNoteWed 1/25/12 4:24 PM
BJGE is unlikely to go anywhere; don't think many teams are willing to sacrifice any versatility/playmaking ability for ball security, and they're certainly not willing to pay much for it. Belicheck went away from them because they're rookies, haven't been in the big games before, doesn't trust them yet, etc. My opinion, anyway.
BaseNoteFri 1/27/12 3:57 PM
Is Roethlisberger really a 'lead pipe lock', even amongst this middling group? He's headed toward having more value in real football than in fantasy; the Steelers dropped Arians to force the offense back to the ground game. This will reduce Roethlisberger's turnovers and may increase his per-play effectiveness, but his scores certainly won't increase, and his yardage is due to dip - when any QB worth his fantasy salt is clocking 250 yards per game/4,000 per season. Is Roethlisberger still a safe bet to be a top-10 QB?
rangerdaveFri 1/27/12 5:31 PM
Don't buy into all that talk about going back to a ground and pound scheme. Pittsburgh is a far better passing team than a running team. The line is terrible, Mendy may not be as effective after injury, and Redman/ Dwyer are not capable of carrying that type of attack. Roethlisberger is still a solid top 10 fantasy play in all formats.
BaseNoteMon 1/30/12 1:37 PM
Hey Hal, shoot me an email message. Want to talk to you about something involving fleaflicker. Promise not to spam you or give your info out, don't wanna get banned!