The Fire Sale: WR and TE Breakdowns fantasysharks.com Mon 8/5/13 9:06 AM4 Comments

August is finally here. I wrote back in May that summer was almost over. My reasoning might have sounded crazy then, but guess what? Summer is basically over and it didn't take long just like I said it wouldn't. You just have to believe. So long summer. You won't be missed. Football is right around the corner and fantasy drafts are in full swing. In my last " Fire Sale," I mentioned a product I tried and really liked by Advanced Sports Logic called The Machine. It's a software system that gives you a blended pre-draft ranking system from Fantasy Sharks and a couple of other respected fantasy sites, as well as help during the season. Some of you gave me feedback on Twitter and said you liked using The Machine as well. The one question I got a lot, though, was can you customize the rankings to your league's scoring system? The answer is yes. The Machine actually pulls your league's information on its own and ranks the players accordingly based on your scoring system. I have four leagues currently hooked up to it and not all of my rankings are the same. Because I spoke so highly of the product and that was the one question most people asked me on Twitter I thought I would clarify it for everyone. Last week I gave out my top 20 quarterbacks and top 30 running backs. In this edition of The Fire Sale I'll finish off my rankings by unveiling my top 40 wide receivers and top 20 tight ends. I don't claim to be a rankings guru, so you can always check out the Fantasy Sharks official rankings as well, but this is how I see things heading into the season. Now on with " The Fire Sale ..." Top 40 Wide Receivers 1. Calvin Johnson, Detroit 2. A.J. Green, Cincinnati 3. Dez Bryant, Dallas 4. Julio Jones, Atlanta 5. Brandon Marshall, Chicago 6. Demaryius Thomas, Denver 7. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona 8. Roddy White, Atlanta 9. Randall Cobb, Green Bay 10. Andre Johnson, Houston 11. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis 12. Victor Cruz, New York Giants 13. Wes Welker, Denver 14. Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay 15. Marques Colston, New Orleans 16. Danny Amendola, New England 17. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants 18. Eric Decker, Denver 19. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay 20. Torrey Smith, Baltimore 21. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City 22. Pierre Garcon, Washington 23. Mike Wallace, Miami 24. Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh 25. Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 26. Stevie Johnson, Buffalo 27. Alshon Jeffery, Chicago 28. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville 29. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia 30. Steve Smith, Carolina 31. Danario Alexander, San Diego 32. Lance Moore, New Orleans 33. Miles Austin, Dallas 34. Kenny Britt, Tennessee 35. James Jones Green Bay 36. Greg Jennings, Minnesota 37. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay 38. Josh Gordon, Cleveland 39. Ryan Broyles, Detroit 40A. T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis 40B. DeAndre Hopkins, Houston 40C. Vincent Brown, San Diego Comments Receiver rankings are more based on a grouping because there are so many guys that are similar ranked near each other. I'll always have people debating players within two or three spots of each other but that's kind of pointless when it comes to receivers. I'm just putting these guys in an area. I can't guarantee when I draft and I'm on the clock that I'll take No. 14 over No. 15. I likely have those guys almost even. I make that decision when the time comes. I just try and rank receivers the best I can so as they come off the board if I have a guy ranked higher than most and he's still there, I know I have to jump on him. Now, if I have a player at 12 and you have him at 20, then we have a legitimate disagreement. My top 8 receivers are set in stone. After those guys I can do some tinkering. If I end up with any of those first eight receivers I'll be more than happy. I expect a big bounce back season from Larry Fitzgerald, and even though Julio Jones is going to keep getting better, Roddy White will always find a way to produce in Atlanta. I've been saying how much I like Advanced Sports Logic's The Machine and its blended ranking system. However, one player The Machine and I strongly disagree on is Wes Welker. They have him ranked way too low in all of my points-per-reception leagues. I know Denver has 100 receivers but it takes a guy like Welker two minutes to build chemistry with Peyton Manning. You know all those short passes Welker caught in New England? Well, what do you think he's going to do in Denver? Manning is all about trusting his receivers and he'll trust Welker from Day 1. Heck, Brandon Stokley caught 45 balls in the slot for Denver last year. Maybe Welker doesn't get to 100 receptions this season. Fine, put him down for 90. Speaking of the Broncos, The Fire Sale has been known for a few specific predictions I've made over the years; some good, some bad. One of my best is pumping up Decker right after he was drafted out of Minnesota and calling for him to break out two years ago. A lot of you have thanked me for my wisdom, which led you to draft Decker last season. It just goes to show the sun even shines on a dog's backside every now and then. It may seem that I'm turning on Decker one year after he made me look so smart but I'm not. I might have him a little low, but with Welker around now someone has to take a hit. I doubt it's going to be a beast like Demaryius Thomas unless he gets hurt. I expect Decker to still be a very solid WR2 this season. Let's be honest, if you have a Broncos' receiver on your fantasy team, you're in good shape. I have Vincent Jackson a little lower than most. I'm worried about the Tampa Bay offense overall. Coach Greg Schiano appears to have a quarterback he doesn't love. That makes me nervous. It means Josh Freeman could have a short leash if he struggles early in the year. Jackson will have a very good year; I just don't like him as a top 10 fantasy receiver in 2013. I don't trust Pierre Garcon at all. When a guy tells me he's worried about injuries in July and it may bother him all season, that really concerns me. Garcon is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick. He'll put up big numbers when he plays. but how long will that be? I'm guessing it's not 16 games. It may not even be 10 games. What in the heck is going on with Anquan Boldin? The guy is older, not dead. Why do so many people have him ranked so low? Has anyone looked at the San Francisco depth chart at receiver? Granted, they signed one of my greatest calls ever -- Austin Collie -- but I made that prediction nine concussions ago. I find the rankings of Boldin a bit odd. People are high on Colin Kaepernick but down on Boldin? So Kaepernick is just going to rush for 1,500 yards then? Listen, Boldin isn't the receiver he once was but he still has some gas left in his tank and he'll produce in PPR leagues. Boldin is going to catch a bunch of those 'out routes' from Kaepernick in the 49ers offense. Maybe I'm wrong but I see Boldin being undervalued heading into the season. You know I think DeSean Jackson is the most overrated NFL/fantasy player of all-time and I'm downgrading all Carolina Panthers players because Mike Shula is a terrible offensive coordinator, which explains why I have Steve Smith so low. Again, if you disagree with me on either of those statements, Google "DeSean Jackson" or "Mike Shula" and tell me I'm wrong. I must have one player ranked high at each position to try and prove that I'm a genius, even though that ship sailed a long time ago. At receiver it's Alshon Jeffery. He's my top sleeper/breakout player for 2013. Jeffery was a beast in college until he became unmotivated in his final year, got lazy and gained weight. While I don't condone that kind of mental weakness because it's part of being a great player, Jeffery appears to be back on track. He's in tremendous shape and should put up big numbers playing opposite Brandon Marshall in coach Marc Trestman's offense. Jeffery is a stud and he's going to start playing like one this season. If he stays focused, 60-70 catches and 8-9 scores are my expectations for him. I have Danario Alexander kind of low and actually have a hunch Vincent Brown may outproduce him. I've always liked Brown dating back to his college days at San Diego State but I'll be honest; I have no feel for this San Diego team. I'm down on them as a whole. I'm down on offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. I'm down on Philip Rivers. Maybe they'll surprise me but I see this being a big transition year for the Chargers before they clean house in the offseason. Ryan Broyles was a favorite of mine last year coming out of Oklahoma. He showed glimpses of what he can do for the Detroit Lions before getting hurt again. If Broyles ever stays healthy he'll be a Welker-type slot guy and eat up receptions for fantasy owners. Like Welker, Broyles just knows how to get open. He's a hard player to gauge, though, because of his knee issues. Just talking talent, opportunity and the offense he's in, Broyles has a chance to destroy his 12th-round average draft position. I have him right there with Jeffery as my top sleeper/breakout candidate. Health is my only concern with Broyles. I probably have T.Y. Hilton too low. The Indianapolis passing game is going to light up defenses this year and Hilton will be a big part of it. I would love to have him on my fantasy team. I had DeAndre Hopkins as my top rated receiver coming into the draft. I re-watched some Clemson games recently and he's the real deal. Hopkins has great hands, body control and he dominated smaller corners. You watch some receivers and they just know how to make plays, even when they're covered. That's big because in the NFL receivers aren't wide open all the time like they are in college. Hopkins is one of those guys. He's a special player, and Hopkins will make a big impact for the Houston Texans as a rookie. Top 20 Tight Ends ...

Comments

Ernes2o Tue 8/6/13 8:18 PM

julio is ranked a bit high. V.Jax will be big time because the bucs will be playing from behind quite a bit. They do look like a much better team everywhere except under center. I rank Jackson higher than Jones at this point.

Ernes2o Tue 8/6/13 8:22 PM

finally! Greg olson getting some respect.

kkyang7133 Thu 8/8/13 12:29 AM

Killer, your high on something, buddy. Just like Brandon Marshall was a product of Mike's system, Jax was a benefactor of P Rivers. Jones is a beast, other then Calvin Johnson, no one in the league has this guys ability. He doesn't get hurt a lot and stays out of trouble when most of these kids with $$$ gets into stupid off the field problems.

Go Jones, money in the bank. Jax has already proven ... those FF numbers are behind him.

BaseNote Fri 8/9/13 10:43 AM

Yeah, V-Jax is a solid WR1 in non-PPR formats, but lacks the elite upside Julio's packing. I don't think Jackson has much of a chance to expand on last year's line. The NFC South does still have some shoddy secondaries to pick on, but Vince is not and has never been a guy who catches a lot of balls - last year's 72 was his career best, which means he's more of a boom or bust guy. Tampa still doesn't have a tight end, Mike Williams is not a guy that makes teams pay for double teaming Jackson, Doug Martin is the focal point of the offense, Jackson will already be 31 by season's end, and Tampa could have some QB musical chairs going on if they don't start the season on the right side of .500. I think last year is the best fantasy season Jackson is ever going to have, whereas I think Julio will have multiple seasons with bigger numbers. That said, Julio/Marshall/Demaryius/Fitzgerald/Andre are all acceptable at that #4 spot, so you could say he's a tad high depending on your preference.