Fantasy Intelligence Report - Week 13 fantasysharks.com Sat 12/3/11 3:06 PM

W.12.R. -- Week 12 Reactions - Stevie Johnson's touchdown dance sadly was perhaps the most exciting play of the New York Jets-Buffalo Bills game on Sunday. Unfortunately for Johnson though, it left a bitter taste in most viewers' mouth (not mine) that turned in to a super-sized Elmo laugh when he dropped what could've led to the game-winning touchdown. Fortunately for fantasy owners Johnson's overall production (8 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD) is a clear indicator that Revis Island can be shutdown, as long as the receiver gets to the middle. - When Vince Young throws for 400 yards and Jason Avant (8 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD) gets mistaken for Terrell Owens, you know that the opposing defense deserves to be ranked 32nd against the pass. The New England Patriots' pass defense is brutally atrocious, and it's not going to get any better unless someone besides Kyle Arrington starts making plays. - The Texans need to get a quarterback, and fast. Neither T.J. Yates nor Jake Delhomme are the answers, and sooner or later Andre Johnson owners may be wishing he was playing in Denver. I mean, you thought the Indianapolis Colts' passing attack was a hot mess? The only worthy receiver right now in Houston's offense until they sort out their quarterback dilemma is sadly running back Arian Foster. Keep that in mind this week. - Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz showed once again why he may be the team's best fantasy option period moving forward. Monday night was Cruz's five consecutive game with six or more receptions and 84-plus yards. It was his second consecutive 100-plus yard game. Supposed-to-be top option Hakeem Nicks has scored one touchdown, and has recorded six or more receptions just twice in the past five games. He hasn't gone over the 100 yard mark since Week 4. Put it in Cruz Control. N.N. -- News Nuggets According to the Indianapolis Star, the Colts will start Dan Orlovsky at quarterback this week against the New England Patriots. "Curtis Painter will not start this game," Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said Wednesday afternoon. Ironically, this will be Orlovsky's first start since 2008, when he was starting for the 0-16 Lions. What's the worst that could happen? According to the Forth Worth Star-Telegram, Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Demarco Murray was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month for November. In the past four games, Murray has carried the pigskin 89 times for 434 yards and scored once. He also caught 20 passes for 156 yards and was a big part of Dallas finishing 4-0 in November and now being back atop the NFC East standings. This is great news for fantasy owners down the stretch, as I can't see head coach Jason Garrett letting him see too much aluminum now, even if Felix Jones is 100 percent. Murray is clearly the best runner the Cowboys have on the roster. According to NFL.com, Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson has been ruled out against the Denver Broncos this week by head coach Leslie Frazier. "He's much further along than he was a week ago, so hopefully in the next few days, being able to cut will be less of a problem than it is today," Frazier said. Toby Gerhart will start in Peterson's place against a Broncos defense that is allowing 120.5 rushing yards per game. According to the Nashville Tennessean, Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Munchak isn't ready to declare the running game fixed, even after Chris Johnson's big breakout game last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. "It was fun to watch, and it looked better," Munchak said. "We're thinking, ‘We're heading in the right direction,' and we'd rather be running the ball well now, at this point in the season." Tennessee should be able to continue running the ball well. This week's opponent, the Buffalo Bills, have been allowing 123.8 yards and just over one touchdown per game this season. According to the Indianapolis Star, the Colts have confidence in Donald Brown at running back, and are encouraged by his recent outburst in production to go along with his newfound fire. "The guy's playing great football right now," center Jeff Saturday said. "You can see when he goes in the huddle he wants the football. He wants his touches. As an offensive lineman, you like to see running backs who are confident, who know they can get yardage." Coach Jim Caldwell added: "I think Donald just keeps getting better. He's really kind of finding his niche. While I'm not totally sold that Brown is the sure-fire top option for the offense's future, I do believe that Brown is too hot right now to sit down. The Colts play the New England Patriots this week, a defense notorious this season for being poor against the pass. According to Newark Star-Ledger, New York Giants wide receiver Mario Manningham is likely to miss Sunday's game against the undefeated Green Bay Packers. Manningham has been nursing a bad knee, and while he insists that there isn't a lot of pain, he is not quite at full speed. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are also listed on the injury report as probable with hip and rib issues. Ramses Barden will continue to see an increase in touches, and could be in line for a very nice game this week against one of the weaker pass defenses statistically in the NFL. E.P.T.C. -- Extra Points To Consider With the playoffs just a week away in most leagues, I thought it would be a good time to give you a few extra points to think about as you get ready to assemble your final playoff roster. 1) Add another kicker to your roster who plays either indoors or in a warm environment. The perceived notion that the kicker just takes up space on your fantasy roster is utter bogus. As you'll see on the hot sheet, Oakland Raiders legman Sebastian Janikowski booted 23 points in to the fantasy stat column last week, and it wasn't the first time the position has seen a big performance like that this season. Plus, you just never know when your kicker is going to join Nate Kaeding on the injury report. If you are to add one, though, please make sure he has a schedule of stadiums conducive to actually allowing for accurate kicks, especially if you lose points for missed field goals. It could make a huge difference in the end. 2) Pick a defense based on matchups and projected weather conditions. Teams like the Miami Dolphins, who don't allow a lot of points (18.7 per game), and are good against the run (97.5 yards per game, 3 TD), but get forgotten on the waiver wire because of their record are perfect defenses to stash behind your regular starter. Why? Well, as is the case with the Dolphins, they play two road games in Weeks 15 and 16 in cities that are known for in-climate and cold weather this time of year. And if they're forced to air it out a little more due to their inability to run the football, you can bet there will be turnovers no matter who's behind center (except Aaron Rodgers), which can often lead to points. 3) Take a chance or two with some of your bench players at wide receiver and running back. In other words, don't settle for just average players with steady, but not great, production. It's your bench, so take a gamble on players like Denver wide receiver Matt Willis. You know, the ones that everyone else will say things like, "There's no way I'm picking him up, his quarterback sucks." What they may not realize is that Willis and the Broncos offense will be up against three Bottom 7 teams in pass defense (check the hot sheet). You just never know when a fantasy nobody will show up inexplicably and become a major hero. It's best to be prepared for that unexpected burst of production. W.13.F.H.S. -- Week 13 F.I.R. Hot Sheet The weekly hot sheet is intended to give fantasy owners a quick reference guide/card to help with the filling of starting lineups. It is in Google Docs format, and is provided below. ***WEEK 13 HOT SHEET*** S.O.D. -- Speaking Out Dirty By 2:30 p.m. Thanksgiving afternoon I felt proud, real proud. The Green Bay Packers were blowing out the Detroit Lions, and all those media folk and crazy uneducated Lions' fans were busy trying to dust off the salt that remained on their egos, Terry Bradshaw included. But what caught me completely off guard, my not so proud moment so to speak, was the fact that I was right about Ndamukong Suh. Blatantly right. Before the game I started talking with a good friend of mine about how I believed at some point during the game Suh would be ejected because this particular game was going to be too big for him. Guess what? However, I never anticipated that this grown defensive lineman would act like such a young text-messaging high school freshman in response to what was so intentional to everyone, including his own fans. Then I looked at his coach. Yeah, I looked at coach Jim Schwartz's mug. Then I looked back at tape after tape, game after game that featured a dirty side that Pig Pen couldn't even conquer. Schwartz's antics on the field during and after games made me cringe with anger. His spewing curse-filled venom at referees all game long as if they were children had my blood boiling like beef stew. His stance, with his arms crossed as if he were ready to punch someone himself, had me ready to put on the gloves. And of course, the replay of his title bout with San Francisco 49ers' coach Jim Harbaugh had me ready to throw a yellow foamed penalty flag at his eye. I mean, it's no coincidence that Schwartz has played in the mud pretty much everywhere he has been. Take former Tennessee Titans' defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth as a good example. If we rewind the yearly tapes we would remember that Haynesworth stomped on Andre Gurode's head in 2006, guess who was defensive coordinator? Then of course, there's Cortland Finnegan, who coincidentally was drafted in 2006 and played under Schwartz for three seasons, acquiring a dirty side to offset his true talent. After Schwartz left for Detroit, Finnegan carried on his...