douglok Aug 13 '13

Just curious if anyone has some ideas on who they think I should keep. My league is a two-keeper league based on head-to-head points and awarded a point per two receptions. Currently, my plan is to keep Russel Wilson as my QB. The rest is up in the air. My team despite making the championship game last year was/is not supreme.

I'm debating on keeping my defense (Seattle), although that doesn't seem to be a popular decision. But, all things considered, I'm not sold on anybody I have otherwise, so my thought process was to keep my QB and another cheap keeper and redraft as best I could. Seattle's defense has been in several publications listed as the top defense in fantasy for the upcoming season; so is it that much of a stretch to pick them over another offensive weapon?

The only players I have that I was considering over the defense are possibly Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace and T.Y. Hilton. I'm concerned, though, for Decker's shared duties with Thomas and Welker, Colston's performance possibly declining and Wallace not living up to expectations or potential. I do expect big things from Hilton, but he is currently not listed as even a top 25 fantasy WR from what I've seen. Do I take that chance and expedite the possible #1 fantasy defense in the hope that he shines or do I stick with Seattle? Here are the players I currently have:

Starters:

Russell Wilson QB

DeAngelo Williams RB

Darren McFadden RB

Marques Colston WR

T. Y. Hilton WR

Eric Decker WR

Jason Witten TE

David Akers K

Seattle Seahawks TM

Bench:

Matt Schaub QB

BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB

Jacquizz Rodgers RB

Mike Wallace WR

Sidney Rice WR

Donnie Avery WR

Owen Daniels TE

New England Patriots TM

Thanks for anybody taking the time.

Replies

bryanmorgan Aug 14 '13

I think outta what you have wilson and seahaks d are good keeps. How many teams in this league as if you won last year it is not real strong. If you are considering any of the others Decker is your best bet. I really don't like any other players on the team except for Sidney Rice and Run DMC but they are such big injury risks that it would be hard to take a chance on them! T.Y. could be ok but I don't think he is worth the risk as a keeper. Also do you have to surrender any picks to keep these players? If so what picks?

douglok Aug 15 '13

Believe it or not, the two of us that were in the championship were both wild-cards. We have 10 teams. My thinking was along the lines of what you're saying. Injury concerns are rampant among my "better" players. If I keep Wilson and Seattle's defense, I don't have to surrender high picks as both were late season pick-ups. Thanks for the response, it's appreciated. Just needed some affirmation on how I was feeling to begin with.

bryanmorgan Aug 15 '13

ok cool I have a similar issue. here is my roster

Qbs

Sam Bradford round 15

Joe flacco Round 8

Chad Henne Round 18 (last round of draft cuz he was a FA pick up)

RBs

MJD Round 3

Marshawn Lynch round 2

LeShawn McCoy Round 1

Knoshawn Moreno Round 18 (Also a FA pick up)

WRs

Donnie Avery Round 18 (FA pick up)

Dez Bryant Round 4

Calvin Johnson Round 1

Michael Crabtree Round 14

Jordy Nelson Round 2

Torrey Smith Round 6

Mike Thomas Round 18 (FA pick up)

TEs

Brent Celeck Round 9

Rob Gronkowski Round 10

Clay Harbor Round 18 (FA pick up)

Tony Scheffler Round 18 (FA pick up)

Ks

Alex Henery Round 16

Blair Walsh Round 18 (FA pick up)

DEF

Bills Round 12

Vikings Round 18 (FA pick up)

Our keeper rules are a little different so here is how they break down. You can't keep any players drafted in the first 4 rounds. You can keep up to 3 players but do not have to keep any. Each player drafted costs you the pick where they were drafted and you can keep players for 3 years unless you drafted said player as a rookie then you can keep said player for 4 years. (This is the 3 year Gronk would be on my roster i.e why he is a 10th round pick). Lastly like I said you can keep up to 3 players but you can only keep them like this. 1 player between rounds 5-9, 1 player between rounds 10-15, and one player between rounds 16-18 also including FAs.

I know that was a lot to take in.... Ok we are a 12 team ppr league. What I am think is this

Torrey Smith round 6

Sam Bradford Round 15

Vikes DEF Round 18

Gronks injuries are such a concern for me!!! Also I have no 1st round pick because I traded it last year for Lynch and calvin johnson totry to win our league.... Didnt work out I finished 4th! lol so I pick 9th but 4th in the 2nd round.

I know none of these guys are tops or even close at their position but they are keeps for depth and I like Bradford's potential. Gronk is the other I am thinking about but I am so freaked about the injuries. What do you think???

douglok Aug 17 '13

Man, that is a lot to process, but I get your situation. I think you are correct in keeping Torrey Smith with that position no questions asked. If we weren't discussing injuries here, I think it would be a no-brainer to select Gronk with that 10-15 round pick, but if you're really worried about it, I think going with Bradford is the smarter, and better, option. That late pick is the questionable one. Both of those defenses are not projected very high for this season. I know you wouldn't be losing much in keeping either one of them, but your chances are just as good for drafting a new defense and getting a back-up defense that are both ranked higher than that. I know it sounds crazy, but I would either go with taking a chance on Donnie Avery or, believe it or not, Blair Walsh. It's not unheard of. I just had a team in my league actually use one of his two keepers on Walsh because he knew he wouldn't be losing much in his draft.

Figure it this way, you're not losing anything until a much later round when a kicker would typically be selected, and Walsh is considered the closest thing to money for a kicker anyway. He may very well be one of only three or so kickers that could legitimately give you 10 points every week (depending on your league), and that's a lot from them. You don't know how many times I've lost a match-up based simply on the fact that my kicker had a poor week. Again, it's not worth it at all if you lost much for him, but that's not the case. So, in review, I agree with your first two keepers unless you care to take that chance on Gronk. The only consideration I would make from there is what you intend to do with that last keeper slot...use it on a kicker (or Avery), or don't use it at all.

bryanmorgan Aug 17 '13

actually makes sense... Just hate the thought of using it on a kicker! lol. It is something to think about though. Avery is no better than a WR4 in KC though and I can do better there. Thanks tho the K thing is something to consider!

JagRag Aug 21 '13

Keeping a defense is, quite simply, never the solution. For one, 10 teams is way too shallow of a league to burn one of only two keeper spots on something so frivolous. Position scarcity also comes into play big time - will anybody else be crazy enough to keep a team defense? If it's only you or maybe one other person, what have you really gained? And third - who knows if the Seahawks defense will be as big of a FANTASY producer as they were last year! Fantasy production from defenses is way, way too difficult to predict/forecast beyond weekly match-ups to put any eggs in that basket. Colston, Wallace, Decker all have question marks, but are all far superior options to roll the dice on. I don't understand the decision. Even if you do forfeit some draft positioning, your team is better.