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6 Months Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vincent Jackson was held to 55 yards on three receptions at Denver in Week 13. V-Jax drew a respectable eight targets, but Champ Bailey was in his grill all afternoon. It's now the eighth time in 13 matchups with Bailey that Jackson has been held to 56 yards or less. Look for him to bounce back next week against an Eagles pass defense that has been prone to the big play. Jackson is now on pace for a 67/1,352/9 stat line in a Pro Bowl-caliber season. | This week's lines are from USAToday.com (as of Thursday night). ATS - Against the Spread; SU - Straight Up; O/U - Over/Under Locks New England at Miami (+7 & O/U 51.5) New England is coming off a 49-19 Thanksgiving win over the N.Y. Jets last week. The Patriots are averaging 47.5 points per game in their last four games and 37 points per game on the season, tops in the NFL. They will have no trouble scoring in the 40s again this week against the Dolphins defense which is giving up 261.7 passing yards per game, 27th in the league. Miami should be able to move the ball against the Patriots pass defense, who rank 29th against the pass. New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami. In their last four meetings, the Over is 4-0. Gimme the Patriots minus the points and the Over. Jacksonville at Buffalo (-6) The Jaguars got their second win of the year last week, defeating the Tennessee Titans 24-19. The team has shown signs of life ever since quarterback Chad Henne took over in Week 11. In their last two games, Henne has averaged 307.5 yards passing and has six touchdowns and one interception. During that span, rookie wide receiver Justin Blackmon has 298 yards and two touchdowns versus 250 yards and one touchdown in his first nine games of the season under quarterback Blaine Gabbert. In 10 games this season, Gabbert threw for over 300 yards only once. In their last three games, wide receiver Cecil Shorts is averaging 97 yards per game and has scored a touchdown in each game. Look for the Jaguars offense to continue to roll this week against the Bills defense which is giving up 29 points per game, 30th in the NFL. I'm surprised to see the Bills favored by so much for a team that has quarterback issues of their own and has lost four of their last five games. Gimme the Jaguars plus the points. Games Tampa Bay at Denver (O/U 50) Peyton Manning faces a Buccaneers pass defense which ranks dead last in the league against the pass, allowing 315.5 yards per game. The Broncos offense is averaging almost 29 points per game and should have no problem putting up at least another 30 points against Tampa this week. Tampa Bay's offense has flourished under new additions Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin. They are averaging 28.2 points per game, good for 4th in the league. Gimme the Over. Houston at Tennessee (+6) After losing to Jacksonville last week, the Titans fired offensive coordinator Chris Palmer. The team ranks near the bottom in every offensive... | 6 Months Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vincent Jackson is expected to see shadow coverage from Champ Bailey Sunday. Jackson is nothing new to the Broncos. He spent seven years as a division rival with the Chargers and Bailey matched up with him routinely. In 12 previous games against the Broncos, Jackson doesn't have a single 100-yard game and has been held to 56 yards or less seven times. V-Jax remains a must-start in all formats this week, but expectations should be held in check. | 6 Months Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vincent Jackson hauled in five of seven targets for a team-high 96 yards versus the Falcons in Week 12. If Mike Williams hadn't underthrown Jackson on a 28-yard trick pass to the 3-yard line, it would have gone for a touchdown. V-Jax lost another score when Josh Freeman didn't see him strolling wide open in the end zone. A rare big-name free agent goldmine at receiver, Jackson is on pace for a career-best 68/1,395/10 heading into Week 13 at Champ Bailey and the Broncos. | Larry Fitzgerald's stock continues to plummet. It's not his fault, but Fitzgerald might have the worst quarterback options in the league throwing him the ball. You know, besides the Kansas City Chiefs. It's actually completely possible that Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, and some guy named Ryan Lindley may all be left-handed and not know it. In any case, Fitzgerald caught just one of his seven targets for 11 yards, including one overthrow when he was wide open for a score. His quarterback situation was the one strike against him going into the season, and it looks to be the one thing holding him back. Even with his considerable talent, I'm not sure he's a WR1 at this point. James Starks is now the guy to roster in Green Bay's backfield. The running back carousel continues in Green Bay. First, it was Cedric Benson. Then, Alex Green was given a shot. Now, it's come full circle back to last year's starter. Starks ran 25 times for 74 yards, which is unimpressive, but what was telling was that the Packers stuck with the run. The team knows that Aaron Rodgers can throw the ball, but it will need to run the ball down the stretch. Keep in mind that Benson should return some time in mid-December, but Starks is the guy for now, which is to say he's the guy for this week. A.J. Green is making a case as the top receiver in the league. In my own rankings, I had Green as the eighth receiver behind Calvin Johnson, Wes Welker, Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson and Julio Jones. I still think those preseason choices were defensible, at least at the time, but Green has since taken exception. On Sunday, he caught six balls for 91 yards and a score, his 10th touchdown in his last nine games. His consistency is coveted across fantasy leagues, and he will continue to be a Top 5 option every week. The Nick Foles era was fun while it lasted. Well, that was quick. In his first NFL start, the rookie completed just 21-of-46 passes for 204 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. He looked overmatched, even against a suspect Washington pass defense, as the Eagles mustered just six points. Since the game, the "significant" concussion Michael Vick suffered in Week 10 has miraculously improved to the point that he may be available in Week 12. If he can pass his baseline concussion tests, he will probably get the start. Josh Freeman is a viable QB1. On Sunday, Freeman threw for 248 yards, three touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Including this past week,... | 7 Months Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vincent Jackson caught two passes for 84 yards and a touchdown in the Bucs' Week 9 win over the Raiders. Jackson's receptions went for 64 deep down the field and 20 for the score. Through eight games, V-Jax has greatly exceeded our preseason expectations. He's on pace for just 62 receptions, but 1,420 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He's averaging an incredible 22.9 yards per catch. Perhaps the YPR will come down, but the yardage and scoring won't if Josh Freeman stays hot. Keep trotting out V-Jax as a WR1/2 when the Bucs face San Diego in Week 10. | 7 Months Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vincent Jackson caught just two passes for 40 yards against the Vikings in Week 8. Jackson was held in check for much of the night by Minnesota's cast of corners, but both of his catches came on third downs to help keep drives alive for Tampa Bay scores. He saw just six targets compared to Mike Williams' 10. V-Jax will get a much-needed 10 days off between games to rest his balky hip. He'll be a high-end WR1 against the Raiders in Week 9, and Josh Freeman's play over the past few weeks certainly bodes well for Jackson's second-half outlook. | |
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