I have a feeling that all of you thought I was joking when I said the quality of officiating would have a direct correlation to the success of my prop bets. Well, now you know and its time to stop holding back. I came roaring back into the green on the back of a few parlays and was a 0.5 Jamaal Charles rushing yard away from having one of my best weeks ever. Week 5: Roll with the momentum.
Season prop bets: 20,000 Sand$
Week 5 prop bets: 1,600 Sand$
Last week gain/loss: +958 Sand$
Season gain/loss: +124 Sand$
Week 4 Results:
100 Sand$ - Brandon LaFell (Panthers) Total Receptions OVER 2.5 (-125) -- (-100)
100 Sand$ - Tony Gonzalez (Falcons) Total Receptions - OVER 5.5 (-115) -- (-100)
500 Sand$ - Nate Washington (Titans) Total Receptions OVER 3 (-115) -- (PUSH)
400 Sand$ - Steven Jackson (Rams) Total Rushing Yards UNDER 66.5 (-115) -- (+348)
300 Sand$ - Jamaal Charles (Chiefs) Total Rushing Yards UNDER 87.5 (-115) -- (-300)
200 Sand$ - Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) Total Receptions OVER 5.5 (-115) AND
WILL Score a Touchdown (+115) -- (+604)
300 Sand$ - Alex Smith (49ers) Total Completions UNDER 20.5 (-105) -- (+286)
100 Sand$ - 49ers Score First (-140) AND Jets Total Points UNDER 18.5 (-115) -- (+220)
Week 5 Player Prop Bets:
300 Sand$ - Reggie Wayne (Colts) Total Receptions OVER 5.5 ( -115)
Wayne is averaging 13.3 targets per game and has yet to record less than six receptions. Indianapolis will most likely be playing from behind and that just means more passing!
100 Sand$ - Reggie Bush (Dolphins) Total Rushing + Receiving Yards UNDER 93.5 (-115)
Gut call of the week.
100 Sand$ - BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Bengals) Total Rushing Yards UNDER 74.5 (-115)
I think Miami's run defense matches up very well against Cincinnati and Green-Ellis. I don't think they are as terrifying as their stats make it seem. Miami had three cupcake games against running backs from the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, and Oakland Raider (Relax. Before you get all "what about Darren McFadden???" on me, you need to look at his stats. He is a whopping 56 for 137 if you take out his one 64 yard run against Pittsburgh. Or as I like to call it - 2.5 yards per carry.)
300 Sand$ - Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks) Total Rushing Yards OVER 100.5 (-115)
It's the Carolina Panthers.
100 Sand$ - Russell Wilson (Seahawks) Total Passing Yards OVER 198.5 (-115)
It's the Carolina Panthers. Also, Chris Gamble is most likely out for Sunday's game and the Carolina safeties showed how terrible they really are in week 4. I don't think Wilson will ever crack 200 passing yards in a game if he can't do it this weekend.
200 Sand$ - Steve Smith (Panthers) Total Receiving Yards UNDER 77.5 (-115) AND Greg Olsen (Panthers) Total Receptions OVER 4.5 (-105)
I apologize for the heavy dose of Seattle-Carolina. Seattle's defense is very good. Particularly their defensive backs.
200 Sand$ - Alex Smith (49ers) Total Completions UNDER 19.5 (-115)
I will take this bet every week unless San Fransisco is playing a team with a high powered offense. They want to run the ball and they will run the ball.
200 Sand$ - Marques Colston (Saints) Total Receptions OVER 5.5 (-115) AND Marques Colston (Saints) Total Receiving Yards OVER 77.5 (-115)
It is just the Colston and Jimmy Graham show in New Orleans with Lance Moore out for Sunday's game.
100 Sand$ - Shonn Greene (Jets) Total Rushing Yards UNDER 52.5 (-115) AND Shonn Greene (Jets) Will NOT Score a Touchdown (-180)
I have a feeling that this game will be exactly like New York's Week 4 trouncing. Houston has a top-notch defense and Bilal Powell will be worked in for more plays.
Season Prop Bets:
5,000 Sand$ - New York Jets to win under 8.5 games (-180)
The Jets are sitting at 2 wins and might stay there for the rest of the season.
5,000 Sand$ - Jimmy Graham to record +35 receiving yards over Rob Gronkowski
Graham: 248 receiving yards
Gronkowski: 260 receiving yards
5,000 Sand$ - Greg Olsen over 550.5 receiving yards (-115)
Olsen: 256 receiving yards -- Almost half way there through only 4 games.
5,000 Sand$ - BenJarvus Green-Ellis over 850.5 rushing yards (-115)
Green-Ellis has 286 rushing yards through 4 weeks. While not off to a blistering pace, he is already 1/3 of the way there.