JL's Observation Deck: Week 1 fantasysharks.com Tue 9/11/12 9:06 AM82 Comments

How great does it feel now that NFL football is truly back? The weekly excitement leading up to Thursday/Sunday/Monday combined with the weekly grind of what it takes to win consistently in fantasy football is a difficult combo to beat. The ups-and-downs of a normal Sunday afternoon can lead you to miss a few of the finer points of the game that just don't come along with rooting for your fantasy player all game long. That is perfectly fine, and can be overcome by reading articles such as this. I will remind you though exactly what I have preached in the pre-season and will continue to until the message has gotten across ... keep perspective! The most complete team in the NFL to start the 2012 season is the San Francisco 49ers. If you have ever played the game, or even heard a coach try over-and-over again to drill into his players' minds just how important ‘execution' is, the 49ers can show you exactly why. They are the best team at executing what exactly they want to do during the course of the game. On offense, Alex Smith has been coached-up perfectly. He completed 20-of-26 passes to multiple receivers, was solid on third down and was never really close to making a costly mistake. Along with that, their powerful offensive line and running schemes keep defenses on their heels, literally and figuratively. On defense, the 49ers had one of the most impressive performances I can remember watching to date. Aaron Rodgers tried to go downfield and hit the big play several times, and failed on each and every occasion. When the 49ers defensives backs were called upon to make the play they needed to make, they did it. It is very evident they are an extremely confident bunch of defensive backs, and, by the looks of it, they seem to believe they won't allow a deep ball to be completed on them all season long. Rodgers completed 30 passes in total simply because he had no other choice but to take what the 49ers gave him. Short pass after short pass, Rodgers had to be accurate just to accomplish what is usually an easy gain versus most teams. The 49ers kept everything in front of them, and when Rodgers broke the pocket it was Aldon Smith who constantly chased him down or forced him to get rid of the ball too quickly. Amazing performance by the 49ers defensive unit, who could actually be improved from a 2011 squad that returns all 11 starters. Much of the preseason talk about the Washington Redskins was about Robert Griffin III or their situation at running back. That talk won't be slowed at all after the Redskins pulled an upset of the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome. One of the main contributors in the upset was running back Alfred Morris. If you started him in fantasy football this week, I would like to congratulate you and would advise not to listen to anyone who claims you should sell-high at this point. Coach Mike Shanahan has a bad rap when it comes to running backs. Recently he hasn't done any fantasy footballers any favors, I would agree, but remember what he did with a sixth-round pick back in the later 1990s. Yeah, that Terrell Davis guy wasn't so bad...Be patient. What exactly would you be selling high for? Roy Helu will be the one to push Morris if it happens, but it is proven that Helu remains more of a complimentary back who will specialize on third down. Morris will not be replaced in short yardage situations all season, as long as he keeps the ball secure in the red zone. It is very likely you drafted Morris as a RB3 or a flex in leagues that play one, so there is no risk in keeping him and seeing what you have. While I am not predicting many more games of 25 carries, he will continue to carry the load for the time being for an offense that might be a little better than we all expected. Another team that impressed me at a shocking level was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They were more than ready for Cam Newton and company to come to town. The offense controlled the ball, holding the Panthers to 49 offensive plays the entire game. The front seven dominated the game for Tampa Bay, not allowing the Panthers to have but a handful of positive gains in the running game. The special team players looked like the highest energy unit in the entire NFL Sunday as well. The Buccaneers blocked a punt, hit hard and made the tackles they needed to make in the open field when any of the Panthers players sniffed daylight. It was blatantly obvious coach Greg Schiano has implemented his identity on a Buccaneers squad that I considered the worst in the league towards the end of 2011. Schiano will pound the rock on offense, hold players accountable on defense and will shorten the game as best he can to keep this team in every game they play. This will be a great recipe for the Buccaneers defense to finish in the Top 10 in yards against and be a unit that you won't want your fantasy studs playing against. Tampa Bay's performance was the one aspect of Week 1 that I feel most confident was a sign of things to come, rather than just a one-week fluke. Quick Hits I will preach not to panic early on in the season, but if you drafted Michael Turner in the first four rounds of your draft, there is a definite cause for concern. As soon as he has his next solid game of 18 carries, 86 yards and a score; I recommend unloading him in a trade. He not only doesn't fit what the Falcons want to do this season, but his counterpart Jacquizz Rodgers does. There will be pretty close to an even split throughout the year when it comes to total snap count. Even when the Falcons grabbed the lead, it was Rodgers getting five carries in the fourth quarter. The days of Turner playing exclusively and racking up 300 touches are over. Please stop with the Mark Sanchez played the best game of his career talk. It was against a Buffalo Bills defense that was supposed to be improved on paper, which it clearly is not. The Bills at this point, are still one of the best five matchups for your fantasy players to be up against. Not only that, but Sanchez was heading into Week 15 in 2011 with 26 total touchdowns accounted for while only throwing 11 interceptions. It was his last three games of the season that sealed his perception's fate. His solid and efficient play at times are not something we should be surprised by, whatsoever. One of the things you might notice this season that is different is the play calling; it will aid Sanchez in creating more big plays than it did under coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, who I consider one of the most predictable coordinators in the league. Two wide receivers that are definitely worth adds if available in 12-team leagues are Sidney Rice and Andre Roberts. Both were targeted nine times in the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals contest Sunday afternoon. Rice was battling with Patrick Peterson all day, and showed on plenty of occasions that he still has the talent to be the go-to wide receiver in Seattle. People have just been so down on Rice because of the recent injuries, as shown by him being overlooked in drafts all around the nation. As for Roberts, he will benefit from Kevin Kolb running the show in Arizona. Kolb spreads the ball around a little better than John Skelton. Roberts was targeted three times on the game-winning drive for the Cardinals, which included him catching the go-ahead touchdown. Roberts will also benefit from the play calling, as he will be running many of the shorter routes that will allow Kolb to get the ball out of his hands quickly. Getting the ball out quickly will be the key for any and all success Kolb will have in the coming weeks since his pocket presence leaves a lot to be desired when trying to run deeper, long developing routes down the field. Both Rice and Roberts can be used as WR3's on your roster if you are looking for someone to fill that spot. Is there cause for concern for Wes Welker owners? Yes, there is. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez did not leave the football field Sunday. That is right, they played every snap on offense. Along with that, Brandon Lloyd was the most targeted player in the Patriots passing game. Welker is the clear fourth option in the Patriots attack right now, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Maybe it is the Patriots' resistance to give Welker a long-term deal, or maybe it is just them transitioning to the future. Either way, I don't consider Welker a WR1 any longer, and, with his lack of big play ability, if he continues to be an inconsistent part of the gameplan, you should start looking for a WR2 as well. In points-per-reception leagues, Welker will be hard-pressed to fall below Top 20 status, but you won't be seeing nearly as many elite level performances as we have become accustomed to getting from Welker. Kevin Ogletree is going to be a very hot waiver commodity in the next couple days. Just remember, his regression could be a hard fall if you plan to pick him up and start him. Ogletree was targeted 11 times in the game, even though he played just more than 30 snaps the entire game. That's a truly impossible ratio to maintain. Matt Ryan lived up to the hype in Week 1 against a depleted Kansas City Chiefs defense. The game proved one thing to me though; Ryan will never be an elite fantasy option. When I say elite, I am talking Top 4-5, in the range that we saw Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford reach in 2011. Ryan will never reach those heights for the simple reason that Mike Smith does not like to run up the score. The Falcons head coach is completely content running the football with any lead he feels comfortable with. Atlanta had a 20-17 lead when Ryan rushed in a touchdown to go up 10 points on the Chiefs. The Falcons got the football back with four minutes to go in the third quarter, and they proceeded to throw the ball only five more times the rest of the game. Thirty-one total pass attempts in the game for Ryan; 21 of them in the first half, with only five of those...
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Comments

Kevo21 Tue 9/11/12 2:00 PM

I had him starting till I got on here and started reading about all the other running backs an he wouldn't produce. Shame on me.

jjoyave1 Tue 9/11/12 2:14 PM

Bro this article is about like 10 players...

phanlouis93 Tue 9/11/12 3:07 PM

Im guessing he was referring to Alfred Morris. Im proud to say that I did start Morris this week :D Although it was more out of necessity, since my other RBs suck

JohnnyLFootball Tue 9/11/12 3:25 PM

I'm the author of this article... and I didn't start Morris ha, it was a wait and see situation. Hopefully we haven't seen the best of Alfred. Make sure to follow me on twitter @JLanfranca , ask me any questions you guys might have, I like talking fantasy 24/7

Hammer1026 Tue 9/11/12 5:52 PM

What's up JL...?? : ) happy to hear you like talking FF 24/7 (and I thought I was addicted...??!! ha!) anyways... got some real probs - in 2 of my 3 leagues I got a rb combo of CJ2K and Fred Jackson (and no Spiller in either cuz he was snagged right before I could handcuff 'em and there's no way I'm trading for him now, price is too damn high!)... in 1 league we only start 2 rb's and 2 wr;s (no flex) and in the other it's 2 rb's and 2 wr's with a flex - in the league with the flex I think I'm ok (I'll backfill with either Decker or the Law-firm based on matchup) but in the other (no flex) all I got for another rb of value is Donald Brown - IF I could hang my hat on CJ2K to actually rebound I probably wouldn't be sweating, but after seeing him week 1... yikes... please give me some hope/options and also please help me back from the ledge... thanks man!!

kkyang7133 Tue 9/11/12 11:04 PM

Cj2k will rebound. No RB in the NFL will have a good day when his team is trailing by 21 Pts. As you can see, the only RBs that did good were on matches that were competitive. Even teams with large leads conserve their RBs by keeping them out due to fear of injuries. CJ will rebound like always and even more with the QB change.

CHURCH Wed 9/12/12 12:46 AM

Yes RBs only do well in competitive games...thats right. Cj Spiller did nothing in that blowout....your correct, I guess Ray Rice was absent in that blowout, um then lets see both Bush and that Forte guy were of no use in that blowout and then the biggest let down was Arian Foster in there blowout.....all those running backs were of no use in those games... I totally see what you mean KKyang713.

On the other hand im sure all the owners of ronnie brown, shaddy McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and Jennings were so over the top with their RBs performance.

Great advice

Ponzi Wed 9/12/12 8:48 AM

Let me help kk out here the only running back you named on the wrong end of a blowout was spiller and yes he went off for over 140 but only on 12 carries(AVERAGING 12/carry!) its not like they were feeding him the ball with obvious passing situations for more then a half of the game. The other guys you names it just so happens that there blowouts were in there favor... You do the brain work there on why their blowouts played into there favor to have big games. kkyang 713 was only stating the obvious and theres really no arguement against it... teams that are down tend to throw the ball especially more so when there down the entire game and down by alot. As far as the taking the RB's out for fear of injury I don't think that matters when there team scores enough points for four fantasy guys to have good days in 3 quarters. They may not play four quarters but everyone seems to get theres on the right side of a blow out.

JohnnyLFootball Wed 9/12/12 3:05 PM

It is not gonna be easy to make trades after Week 1 either Hammer. Stay patient with Donald Brown, Colts couldn't run at all vs the Bears D line, and then fell behind. Better days are ahead for Brown and the Colts, they will improve as the season wears on as well. If there is a trade to explore, yea go ahead and look at it, but dont just assume you are in big trouble because CJ and Brown didnt have good days Week 1. If you did get offered a trade, hit me up on twitter @JLanfranca and I will try my best to help u out

Hammer1026 Thu 9/13/12 9:01 AM

Same here JL, been playing FF for 10+ years now and normally I don't over-react like this, but it sure is helpful to get some wise wisdom... thanks! I don't have a twitter tag at the moment, but may look in to doing that... in the meantime, I'll just look ya up this way 0 for my sake, let's hope DB kicks some ass this wknd and CJ gets back to the CJ2K way of doing things...??!! ; )

JohnnyLFootball Thu 9/13/12 12:06 PM

Like I said below too, getting on twitter is GREAT for fantasy football help in general, a lot of good people to follow on there to find out latest news and updates

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 1:35 PM

dont donald brown have a knack of getting injured?

if spiller runs like a wild man for the next several games, the bills would be hard pressed to bench him.

Riggs44R Wed 9/12/12 11:32 PM

Good stuff JL, I like how you think!

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 8:59 AM

wow, when i saw 44 posts, i had to read! i thought i was the only one who attracted the name calling silly's around here. you guys need to drink a big glass of act right.

most of you let the press` frustration with the skins playing games with them foul up your judgement. over the years, the shanny's have drafted gems in the later rounds and stuck with them until injury. that includes the only reason Elway ever won a SB in the first place, Shanny's drafting of TD in the 6th round! lets just look back at last year alone. why was Hightower replaced? injury. why was Helu replaced? injury. why did Morris get a shot to start? injury's. is Morris better than Helu? YES! Helu is indeed explosive but Morris is also explosive in his own right and has the intangibles that Helu lacks. Morris is very good at breaking tackles, the spin, the juke, he keeps those legs pumping even after being wrapped up. he has the vision and the burst to get through that first hole. i watched him in every game (preseason and last week), i watched every preseason game 2ce and thanks to the NFL networks replay, i saw the saints game 2ce. the kid has what Helu does not have and the skins will stick with him until injury sets in. he is a great flex player right now and before its over, he will be a solid RB2. its not about who "deserves" what, its about who has it and who dont.

as for the typical NFL week 1, some studs looked like duds but be patient, they are studs for a reason.

that cowboy #3 wr... Kevin Ogletree. it seems like the #3 guy generally does pretty well down there. i dont think i would sell the farm for him but putting him on the bench to keep him away from others until a pattern emerges would be smart in the big FFL's. unless you are thin at WR, i would not start him yet. one should fully expect him to come back down to earth averaging 3 or 4 catches a game. 11 is just a silly number for a #3 guy to maintain.

my post is #45! feel free to tell me i am wrong. i am a big boy and i can take it BUT dont start calling me names or comparing me to whatever.

WAZ UP RIGGO?!!! has 44 made it to any family reunions yet?

Riggs44R Thu 9/13/12 7:36 PM

Nah, no Christmas or birthday cards from him yet either! Hahhaa

jjoyave1 Thu 9/13/12 8:56 AM

I've got one. I think the odds we get a few good weeks out of Morris are very good. Hightower, last season, was in the top 3 in the NFL in rushing through their easy first 4-5 weeks last year, at least in fantasy scoring. Up to week 7, the only real run D they face is Cincy, and that's not a front line I'm hanging my hat on post week 1 this year. What do you think?

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 9:00 AM

i think you will get more than a few good weeks barring injury but you got the idea and history right!

JohnnyLFootball Thu 9/13/12 12:04 PM

I am with you guys on Alfred Morris having many more good games, but damn he runs so physical, it will be hard for him to last 16 games.

And I was hoping that my article was just that good, that it drew that many responses! lol

Also, I have no problem soliciting followers on twitter, so make sure you follow me, if for nothing else than pure entertainment. Even if you don't follow me, make sure to get on twitter because it is SO VERY HELPFUL when playing fantasy football. On Sunday morning I dont even check any sites besides twitter to find out who is active/inactive. Just make sure you follow the right guys... like me.

Riggs44R Thu 9/13/12 1:23 PM

and if I were on there. LoL

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 1:32 PM

yea, no twitter for me! ESPN, NFL network, and flea flickers mixed bag is plenty for me at the moment. toss in a steady dose of local redskins coverage and i give my wife all she can handle!

jjoyave1 Thu 9/13/12 2:17 PM

Alright my old buddy gibbs and my new buddy JL, what do you think about a trade my brother and I are discussing, with CJ0K and Garcon for Julio and the Bean, where I'm the former, he's the latter?

I currently have Percy, Antonio, and VJax on my team as well as Blackmon. My other RBs are Murray [waivers from the prior season can be kept in our league], MJD, Morris, and Mendenhall.

Riggs your opinion is important as well.

JohnnyLFootball Thu 9/13/12 2:57 PM

If you are only starting 2 RBs, I would take Julio. Julio will be an elite player in fantasy football, while Chris Johnson might not be. Julio might simply outscore CJ straight up, if that was the case, obviously the WR's value would trump that of a RB. If it's PPR, I would make the case, even stronger reason you should accept it and get Julio

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 3:11 PM

i dont like Mendenhall so if he is only a spot player for bye weeks, ok but i would consider him the weak link. beanie wells is a bench guy as well. i think you are giving up to much... CJ is the best out of him, Mendenhall and wells. Garcon COULD end up being a beast and not all to far behind Julio. i love me some Julio but not to sure if i would pull the trigger on this. Garcon is by far RGIII's favorite target and i think Wells is to cheap.

its close, tell him to toss in a mid to late round pick because a quality RB like CJ is hard to get and you already have a strong WR in Garcon.

jjoyave1 Thu 9/13/12 3:27 PM

I think I'm gonna do it just based on Mendenhall alone. I know its a bit of a gamble but Julio was a waiver wire grab in 2010, meaning longevity in our league keeper rule [I will be able to carry him and Murray into 2013 and not lose high draft picks].

I bleed Falcons. Our schedule this year will see a lot of shootouts, with not a lot of shutdown-corner style defenses. Julio very well may outscore CJ this year.

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 3:37 PM

julio may do just that and so may Garcon, LOL!

garcon has the Rams, if healthy

the bucs, your dirty birds, vikings, the burg, panthers, browns, ravens and the boys, giants and eagles twice each. outside of the ravens, the burg and maybe your dirty birds he should do rather well.

its not a bad deal you got going on and i am a bit partial to my redskins just like you are for your birds so go for it!

jjoyave1 Thu 9/13/12 3:51 PM

I know what you mean bro. I'm big on Garcon this year, but I need to get rid of CJ for health reasons lol. I can't put all that 1st round pick hope on a guy like that, even if he does get 20-30 touches a game.

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 3:59 PM

i feel ya. so the trade is really Garcon for Julio and CJ for beanie. its beanie that makes me hedge. he did do decent for me at times last year but a keeper, i dont see.

anyway, sometimes it comes down to wanting the player of your fav team.

Riggs44R Thu 9/13/12 7:34 PM

GibbsSkins, don't be so hasty and count out the Boys pass D! It's much improved! I know Cruz had too much "salsa" on his hands and dropped 3 or 4 but they shot down Eli's "elite" passing game!

Donbruno454 Thu 9/13/12 7:39 PM

So guys,anyone, who would you start in the RB/WR position. Nicks or Morris? Can someone help me with this.

Riggs44R Thu 9/13/12 7:56 PM

Morris, hands down! He's going against the Rams run defense. The Rams pass D is a lot better with Courtland Finnegan, as is the Bucs pass D with Barron, going against Nicks, who may still be banged up because he showed NOTHING vs the Cowboys!

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 8:00 PM

i am with my dawg riggs on that. Morris by a mile.

Donbruno454 Thu 9/13/12 8:54 PM

Thanks for the imput. Good luck to all you ff freaks.

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 7:59 PM

even the skins shot down that "elite" passing game twice last season. i am not impressed. besides, the skins come with a more balanced attack so it will keep the cow kids honest.

Riggs44R Thu 9/13/12 8:04 PM

more balanced than the Giants?

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 8:06 PM

HELL YEA! the giants have not run the ball very effectively over the past few years. the skins sport a better and more effective run game these days. GO SKINS!

Riggs44R Thu 9/13/12 7:53 PM

I agree with JL, if it's a PPR, then YES YES YES! It's basically Julio for those 2. You're solid at RB and you're steady at WR, Julio would make Antonio or VJax or even Morris/Mendenhall a great Flex play! I know the Titans are having offensive line issues but CJ just seems like he dances around too much and doesn't hit the hole hard enough. Even if it's a standard league, Julio could net you as much as those other 2. Pull the trigger

joegibbskins07 Thu 9/13/12 8:04 PM

i was thinking about it for the last few hours and i think i would make the trade too. Julio is a very young stud. i am going to go from the fence into the field. PLAY BALL! (was that a baseball reference? my bad. my only baseball team is in the championship game for the second year in a row and the NATS ARE KICKING ASS!)

Riggs44R Thu 9/13/12 8:37 PM

Plus, he would get to keep Julio to go along with Murray, that's a REALLY NICE 1-2 punch!

CHURCH Tue 9/18/12 3:59 PM

WOW....all off of a RB post

joegibbskins07 Tue 9/18/12 4:43 PM

your a little late, bro. LOL

JohnnyLFootball Tue 9/18/12 4:45 PM

Make sure to check out my Week 2 observations... it is on the fleaflicker.com home page. JL's Observations: Week 2 ..... Let's get a huge thread rolling on that one too! Whooo!

joegibbskins07 Tue 9/18/12 5:21 PM

so how did you get that job and how many of the writers that show up on here do you know?

Riggs44R Tue 9/18/12 5:57 PM

LOL! I was just thinking the same thing, right around the time you posted this but was not on puter. JL knows his stuff, most of these other guys don't even know the players names or what team they're on or get their teammates wrong and on and on... I don't wanna take your job JL but with so much Fantasy info out there, I'm sure you can find or know of a spot somewhere. LoL