Surprise & Demise: Five Facts fantasysharks.com Aug 29 '126 Comments

Looking for (and actually finding) value in a draft is just as essential as avoiding the busts. A majority of players do not even finish close to their average draft positions (ADP), and blindly trusting the majority of drafters is a recipe for failure. Some players are surprises and perform better than expected, while others will be your demise and are labeled as busts. Here are three surprises and demises heading into the 2012 NFL season.

Surprise: Davone Bess, WR, Miami (ADP of 187)

1. Chad Johnson is no longer on the Miami Dolphins.

2. Brandon Marshal is now in Chicago, and his 140 targets from 2011 will go elsewhere.

3. Head Coach Joe Philbin is the former offensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers (2007-11), whose offense ranked in the Top 10 for total points scored and total yards each year.

4. Bess is now the WR1 for the Miami Dolphins. His best season was in 2010 when he had 79 catches for 820 yards and five touchdowns as the WR2.

5. Bess is going undrafted in 49.8 percent of points per reception leagues.

Surprise: Donald Brown, RB, Indianapolis (ADP of 87)

1. Brown had a career-high of 4.8 yards per carry in 2011.

2. Mewelde Moore has been sidelined with a rib injury this preseason.

3. Delone Carter has been sidelined with a rib injury this preseason.

4. Brown was tied for fifth in yards after contact in 2011.

5. Drafting a running back with Brown's expected workload is a steal in the eighth round.

Demise: Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver (ADP of 113)

1. On average, Willis McGahee has only missed one game per season.

2. John Fox does not start rookie running backs.

3. Lance Ball is the No. 2 running back on the depth chart.

4. Hillman has already sustained two hamstring injuries this preseason.

5. Hillman will never see the field on third down until his pass protection improves.

Demise: Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia (ADP of 41)

1. Vick is 32 years old.

2. In nine NFL seasons, Vick has played 16 games only once.

3. The Philadelphia Eagles have the seventh-most difficult passing strength of schedule for the fantasy regular season in 2012.

4. Vick has been injured in the first two preseason games this year.

5. Despite only playing only 13 games, Vick still managed a career-high 14 interceptions in 2011.

Comments

Perrone96 Aug 29 '12

The article says three surprises and demises. I only see two for each, and four total, so where did they get three from?

cogwheel Aug 29 '12

Mixed bag for me, this article.

Snatched Bess last Sunday unclaimed off the waiver-wire post-draft. Have always liked him, couldn't resist once I noticed he's basically Miami's #1 option now. If Tannehill can be at least as decent as Moore in 2010, figured he'd be a waiver-wire steal in my .5 per reception league 12-team dynasty league, particularly since Bess is still very young.

Drafted Hillman in that same dynasty league which just started this season. I know I shoudn't expect production from him, but McGahee surely can't have many productive seasons left in the NFL at age 30, and it's hard to imagine the likes of Lance Ball is the future Denver's backfield.

cogwheel Aug 29 '12

*the future of

cogwheel Aug 29 '12

Er, I meant Garrard in 2010. Getting my interchangeably mediocre Miami QBs confused.

ROSSLLER Aug 29 '12

Garrad played in Jacksonville in 2010...

kotyk Sep 01 '12

I got him on WW right after my draft ended, I had a iffy draft. My bench is in question, this makes me feel like I might have a little diamond I can use when I need.